76ers-Raptors, Suns-Pelicans, Mavericks-Jazz Game 6 NBA Playoff Bets, Odds, Lines, Props
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Three teams are facing elimination on their home courts Thursday night.
The Raptors, Pelicans and Jazz all trail, 3-2, in their respective first-round series. And each has already dropped a game at home, so it’s not out of the question for the 76ers, Suns or Mavericks to defeat them on the road.
Conversely, each lower-seeded team has stolen a road game in its series already, so the higher seeds are certainly looking to avoid a winner-take-all Game 7 at home.
Regular season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoff record: 30-27
Check the Latest Odds and Lines at SI Sportsbook
Stacy Bengs/AP
No. 4 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 5 Toronto Raptors (Philadelphia leads series, 3-2)
Time: 7 p.m. ET | NBA TV
Spread: 76ers -1.5 (-110) | Raptors +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: 76ers (-125) | Raptors (+105)
Total: Under 210.5 (-110) | Over 210.5 (-110)
The 76ers are imploding. After jumping out to a 3-0 lead, Philadelphia lost Game 4 at Toronto and didn’t slam the door shut in Game 5 at home, so now the Sixers head back to Toronto for Game 6. Scottie Barnes is back, Joel Embiid is hurt and though the Raptors will be without All-Star point guard Fred VanVleet, the 76ers aren’t getting all that much out of their All-Star guard, James Harden.
The odds still favor Philly. The 76ers are -699 to win the series and -125 to close it out Thursday. Still, doubt is creeping in for a team whose coach and stars are familiar with letting playoff series slip out of their hands.
Part of the reason Toronto even has an inkling of hope is Pascal Siakam. In three losses, Siakam averaged 18.6 PPG on 41% shooting. He’s scored 28.5 PPG in back-to-back wins on 55% shooting and his rebound and assist numbers are up as well. Siakam is flanked by OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr., who are the Raptors’ only outside shooting threats with VanVleet sidelined. Barnes looked more like himself in Game 5—he filled up the stat sheet in 41 minutes. And Precious Achiuwa, Nick Nurse’s attempt at making up for Toronto’s lack of size against Embiid, has been exceptional in extended minutes in the postseason.
When Embiid and Harden were playing at or close to their usual levels in the first three games, the extra help from Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey was gravy. With the stars’ play declining—Embiid’s due to his thumb injury and Harden’s for unknown reasons—help from the role players is more essential than ever, and it dried up in the last two losses. Maxey’s scorching shooting took a nosedive as did Harris’. Beyond those two, scoring options for Doc Rivers to call upon are limited.
Scotiabank Arena will be deafening as the Raptors work their way toward what would be the first-ever 3-0 comeback win in playoff history. I don’t think they get that far. For whatever reason, I still believe in Philadelphia. I think Harden is due to show us a glimpse of who he was in Houston—sidestep threes, 10-plus free throws, inevitable floaters–that player, the one who won MVP in 2018. The second-round opponent for the winner of this series is set; the Heat await. And for all the fits Toronto’s defense and length gave the 76ers, Miami’s defense is even scarier. The 76ers shouldn’t have allowed this series to head back to Canada and they’ll make sure they finish it there.
BET: 76ers -1.5, James Harden Over 20.5 Points (+100), Pascal Siakam Over 24.5 Points (-104)
Chuck Cook/USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans (Phoenix leads series, 3-2)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Suns -2.5 (-110) | Pelicans +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Suns (-138) | Pelicans (+115)
Total: Under 213.5 (-118) | Over 213.5 (+100)
I picked the Suns in five before this series began. I couldn’t have expected Devin Booker’s injury, of course, but also how well a 36-win team would play the NBA’s No. 1 seed. Of course, New Orleans has shown it’s not your usual sub-.500 squad—it traded for C.J. McCollum midseason, it didn’t have Zion Williamson all year (and still doesn’t) and it was playing catch up since November after a 3-16 start. Now the Pelicans are in position to force a Game 7, where anything can happen.
Two things prevented New Orleans from taking a 3-2 lead in the last game: Mikal Bridges exploded for a playoff career-high 31 points and had four blocks to boot, and the team’s outside shooting dried up. If a few more threes drop and Bridges doesn’t have a career game, maybe the Pelicans win. Neither team has shot the ball well from outside—the Pelicans are 14th in the playoffs with 9.6 made threes per game and the Suns rank 15th with 8.8. McCollum and Ingram combined to shoot 2-for-13 from beyond the arc.
Phoenix also showed its defensive prowess for the first time since Game 1. It held New Orleans under 100 points after allowing 125 and 118 in the two losses and the Suns were the irritant in this game, forcing 15 turnovers, picking off 10 steals and blocking four shots (all by Bridges). Chris Paul rebounded from his four-point showing to tally 22 points and 11 assists and Cam Payne showed up for the first time all series—he had 12 points in 12 minutes and provided a spark off the bench.
The Pelicans are banking on big games from Ingram and McCollum, and so am I. In the two victories in this series, Ingram is averaging 33.5 points and he’s also better than 30 PPG at home. McCollum is shooting 8/19 from deep in those wins and Jonas Valanciunas had his best game in the dominant Game 4 win: 26 points and 15 rebounds. Willie Green needs that from his Big 3 and for Herb Jones, Larry Nance and Jose Alvarado to play to their highest levels. The crowd was a factor at Smoothie King Arena in the two home games in which the Pelicans outscored the Suns by one, and that should be the case again Thursday night. I’m expecting a New Orleans win, but two points is nice insurance.
BET: Pelicans +2.5, Jonas Valanciunas Over 12.5 Rebounds (-124), Brandon Ingram Over 25.5 Points (-108), Chris Paul Over 20.5 Points (-112)
Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP
No. 4 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz (Dallas leads series, 3-2)
Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Mavericks +1.5 (-118) | Jazz -1.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Mavericks (-110) | Jazz (-110)
Total: Under 210.5 (-110) | Over 210.5 (-110)
The first four games of the series were competitive until Utah rolled over in Game 5. Dallas won, 102-77, to take back the lead. Rudy Gobert was the only Jazz starter who scored in double figures, the team shot 3-for-30 from three and Donovan Mitchell left early with what was revealed to be a quad injury. He’s reportedly good to go for Game 6 and his team will surely need his scoring after that poor performance.
Utah was the No. 1 offense in the regular season. That’s down to No. 12 in the playoffs. Dallas had the No. 7 defense in the regular season and improved that to No. 5 through five postseason games. The Mavericks’ defense improved marginally in the postseason and its offense leapt from No. 14 to No. 4.
A big component of that is high-volume three-point shooting. Dallas is hoisting an NBA-high 41.6 threes per game and connecting on 15.2, tied with the Warriors for No. 1 in the postseason. Three players average three or more made threes per game (Luka Doncic, Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber). Comparatively, the Jazz are dead last in the playoffs in three-point makes (8.8) and percentage (27.8).
After Utah struggled to defend Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie for three games, Doncic made his return to the lineup and looked every bit himself, averaging a 30-point double-double in 33.5 minutes per game in two games back. Doncic, an even more gifted passer and ball handler than Brunson, who sliced up the Jazz for 41 points in Game 2, makes it look easy.
I like the Mavericks to close out the series on the road. That Game 5 showing was a wave of the white flag, with or without the injury to Mitchell. The second round is so close for Doncic and Dallas. Utah doesn’t have the perimeter defenders or secondary scorers (Jordan Clarkson aside) to keep up. The Mavericks won’t let this get to a Game 7.
BET: Mavericks +1.5, Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Rebounds (-132), Rudy Gobert Over 14.5 Points (-106)
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