AFC Wild-Card Round Player Props: Steelers vs. Bills

In what could be a weather game, lean on the rushing props in this one.

As of today, It's expected to be a chilly one in Western New York on Sunday with a chance of light snow and winds between 20-30 mph with gusts ranging from 40-60 mph. The Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers that day, and weather will be a factor.

The line has moved dramatically since opening at 43, settling at just 35.5 on Wednesday.

Neither of these teams are strangers to playing in bad weather, however.

What should we expect? Running. Not only can Bills quarterback Josh Allen run, so can Pittsburgh’s tandem of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. As you probably guessed, that’s where we will focus Sunday’s player props.

Colorado, Michigan and Virginia Readers: Get up to $100 from SI Sportsbook

Bet $5 on DraftKings and get $200 in Bonus Bets if not in those states

(AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Josh Allen anytime TD (-105)

It’s like clockwork, really. Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in 12 of 17 games this season. Sure, the Steelers have yet to allow a rushing TD to a quarterback this year, but eventually someone will break that streak, and that will be Allen this weekend in a snowstorm.

Najee Harris over 15.5 rushing attempts (-110)
Najee Harris anytime TD (+220)

Harris has been a beast lately. He had 19-plus attempts and a touchdown in each of the final three games of the regular season. It’s no coincidence that the Steelers won each of those games and ended up with a playoff berth. We have a blueprint for how the Steelers will play in inclement weather, too. Just last week in a rainy wind-fest in Baltimore, the Steelers ran NHarris a whopping 26 times on their way to a victory.

Jaylen Warren over 3.5 receptions (+110)
Jaylen Warren over 18.5 receiving yards (-110)

The inclement weather means more check-downs for Warren. Sure, he fumbled the ball a couple of times last weekend, but the Steelers still kept going back to him. Since Mason Rudolph took over in Week 15, Warren has seen an average of more than five targets per game, and he has exceeded this catch-prop in all of them. The Bills allowed an average of five catches and 42 receiving yards per game to opposing runners this season. 

Dalton Kincaid over 35.5 receiving yards (-115)

Kincaid has seen 15 targets across the past two games, tied with Stefon Diggs for the team lead, but Kincaid leads the team with 171 receiving yards in that span. Look for Allen to continue to find his sure-handed tight end vs. the Steelers, who allowed an average of five catches per game and 50 receiving yards per game to the position during the regular season. 

Colorado, Michigan and Virginia Readers: Get up to $100 from SI Sportsbook

Bet $5 on FanDuel and get $200 in Bonus Bets if not in those states

---

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the National Council for Problem Gambling 1-800-522-4700. The Arena Media Brands, LLC and its partners may receive compensation for links to products and services on this website.