NFL Divisional Round Best Over/Under Bets

Three of the four playoff games this weekend could be lower scoring than you think.

The final four remaining teams in the AFC all possess star quarterbacks, which makes the over enticing when it comes to best bets this week.

A field that includes Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud could make for two exciting divisional round games in the AFC.

The QB star power isn’t as high in the NFC, but the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions have had two of the best offenses all season and will now clash with two of the hottest offenses in the postseason. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 32–9. And the Green Bay Packers crushed the Dallas Cowboys, 48–32.

With all that being said, betting the over doesn’t make sense for three of the four games this week. Don’t overlook the dominant defenses and chess matches that will be on display for the divisional round.

Here are this week’s best over/under bets (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).

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1. Texans (11–7) at Ravens (13–4)

Defensive tackle Justin Madubuike and the Ravens defense held the Texans to nine points in a Week 1 win this season :: Jessica Rapfogel/USA TODAY Sports

• Over/Under: 43.5
• Prediction: Under

I’m expecting Jackson and Stroud to provide moments of brilliance in a close game between the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans. But they both will face tough defenses and the frigid weather in Baltimore won’t invite a shootout for this intriguing matchup. The Ravens have a dominant defense that allowed a league-best 16.5 points per game in the regular season. Stroud and No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins might miss injured wideouts Noah Brown and Tank Dell in this battle against Ravens linebacker Roquan Smith, safety Kyle Hamilton, defensive tackle Justin Madubuike and many other Pro Bowl-caliber defenders. Jackson could also have a tough time against DeMeco Ryans’s surging defense, which forced Joe Flacco into two pick-sixes during last week’s wild-card win against the Cleveland Browns. The Texans allowed 20.8 points per game in the regular season, but they have gotten better in the past month.

2. Packers (10–8) at 49ers (12–5)

• Over/Under: 50.5
• Prediction: Over

Rain is expected to hit Levi’s Stadium, but that shouldn’t slow down two of the hottest offenses in the NFL. Brock Purdy and the 49ers averaged 28.9 points per game in the regular season, which ranked third in the league. The 49ers scored 30 points or more in nine games this season, which is not surprising for a team that features running back Christian McCaffrey, tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. They should score around 30 points again vs. an inconsistent Packers’ defense, but defensive coordinator Joe Barry has had productive game plans the past two weeks, including last week’s wild-card win against the Cowboys. Jordan Love and the Packers hung 48 points in Arlington, Texas. If Love gets stout protection and he’s able to evade Nick Bosa and Chase Young, he has the arm strength and weapons to expose the 49ers’ thin secondary. Not many quarterbacks have played better than Love the past month.

3. Buccaneers (10–8) at Lions (13–5)

Jared Goff puts up good numbers at home, but Todd Bowles’s defense could present a problem :: Eric Seals/USA TODAY Network

• Over/Under: 48.5
• Prediction: Under

The Buccaneers’ defense smothered Jalen Hurts and the Eagles on Monday night. The Lions’ offensive line and coaching staff should be more equipped than Philadelphia to handle Todd Bowles’s affinity for blitz calls, but it could hinder Jared Goff and his explosive Detroit offense. Last week, the Lions only managed three points in the second half against the Los Angeles Rams because the Rams made halftime adjustments and the pass rushers applied pressure on Goff. The Buccaneers don’t have Aaron Donald, but they have Vita Vea and he has a lot more help on his defensive front and in the secondary. Touchdown drives won’t be easy for Goff to produce vs. a talented and experienced Tampa Bay defense. As for Baker Mayfield, he could hurt the Lions’ suspect secondary with downfield weapons Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Trey Palmer. But the Lions will probably make them one dimensional with a defensive line that includes Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill—Detroit only allowed 88.8 rushing yards per game in the regular season, second best in the league.

4. Chiefs (12–6) at Bills (12–6)

• Over/Under: 45.5
• Prediction: Under

All eyes will be on Allen’s explosive Buffalo Bills’ offense against Chris Jones and his dominant Kansas City Chiefs’ defense. Two of the best units in the league going at it should provide many memorable moments, but I don’t see the Chiefs allowing 30 plus points. The most points the Chiefs allowed in a single game in the regular season was during the 27–19 loss to the Packers in Week 13. For the season, the Chiefs allowed 17.3 points per game, second best in the NFL. Allen, however, does have two quality tight ends in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox to gain a few favorable matchups vs. a stout secondary. The Bills’ defense is dealing with more injuries and now has to face Mahomes, Travis Kelce and rookie Rashee Rice. But the Chiefs haven’t had a dominant offensive performance in months. 

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