AFC Divisional Round Player Props: Chiefs vs. Bills

Here are four plays to bank on in the final playoff game of the weekend.

The Buffalo Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs for what is expected to be a close on in Orchard Park.

In six matchups since 2020, the series is tied at 3. The over has hit three times, as has the under.

The game total is set at just 45.5 with the home team favored by 2.5 points. Fans will be rooting for another postseason classic on Sunday.

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Stefon Diggs has been Josh Allen’s favorite receiver for years, but they haven’t been on the same page recently :: Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports

Josh Allen anytime TD (+100)

It’s even money for Allen to punch one in? I’ll take that bet. Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in 14 of 18 games this season, including Monday’s wild-card game when the Pittsburgh Steelers allowed their first rushing touchdown of the year to an opposing quarterback. It’s hard to say no to this value when Allen has been putting his team on his back. The Chiefs have allowed four rushing TDs this season, which is four more times than the Steelers, so we like our odds. The Chiefs have allowed a rushing touchdown to Allen in two of six career matchups.

Isiah Pacheco over 18.5 receiving yards (-115)

The Bills allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing runners during the regular season at an average of nearly 42 per game. Last week, they allowed 31 receiving yards to Steelers running backs. The Bills allowed an average of 6.5 targets per game to runners and 6.33 yards per target this year. In what is expected to be a close matchup with the Chiefs, and with Jerick McKinnon on IR, Patrick Mahomes should target Pacheco -- who averaged 3.5 targets per game this year -- enough times to exceed this number.

AFC Divisional Playoffs: Chiefs vs. Bills Odds and Picks

Stefon Diggs under 5.5 catches (+110)

Yes, I am fading Diggs in this matchup. Things just haven’t looked right lately between he and Allen, and he’s averaged exactly five catches per game across his last four games played. He did catch seven vs. the Steelers on Monday, but the Chiefs defense is much tougher on wideouts, and specifically vs. Diggs. In two playoff games vs. Kansas City (2021-22), Diggs has averaged just 4.5 receptions for 42 yards per game. Across six career games vs. the Chiefs, he’s averaging exactly five catches per game. I’m betting on the Chiefs to win this one, but lean more on other receivers, and I’ll take the plus-money action for Diggs to go under.

James Cook over 17.5 receiving yards (-115)

Since I just said Allen will spread the ball out to more players, that should also include Cook, who caught all five of his targets for 83 yards and a touchdown in Week 14 vs. the Chiefs. Cook averaged more than 26 receiving yards per game during the regular season while the Chiefs allowed more than 28 yards per game to runners. 

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