2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year Midseason Odds
Victor Wembanyama has delivered on the hype and then some. Heading into the All-Star break, the San Antonio Spurs star is the runaway favorite to win the Rookie of the Year, following in the footsteps of the franchise’s previous No. 1 picks, Tim Duncan and David Robinson.
Even before the season began, Wembanyama was the odds-on favorite at -161 to take home the hardware. Now, 49 games into his first year, he’s a prohibitive -800 favorite. His closest — and only — competition is Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren (+450), who’s enjoyed more team success than Wembanyama but he doesn’t stack up statistically.
Charlotte Hornets forward Brandon Miller (+10000) is beginning to come into his own but the Rookie of the Year race has essentially already been narrowed down to Wembanyama and Holmgren and even that might not be much of a fight at this point.
Wembanyama is writing himself into the league’s history books, most recently with a 27-point, 14-rebound, 10-block triple-double, the first points-rebounds-blocks triple-double in the league in three years. He's also the only player in NBA history to accomplish that feat in fewer than 30 minutes. Wembanyama is averaging 20.5 points, 10 rebounds and a league-leading 3.2 blocks per game, which also has him in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation.
It will be a major surprise if Wembanyama isn’t the NBA’s Rookie of the Year.
Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports
The Spurs (11–44) are the worst team in the Western Conference and it’s not particularly close. That’s no fault of Wembanyama’s, though, who’s succeeding in spite of his team’s struggles, which could land San Antonio a pick near the top of the draft once again.
Only seven players have ever averaged a 20-point double-double as a rookie; five of them, including Robinson and Duncan, won Rookie of the Year. The last player to hit that mark was Blake Griffin — no other player has done so in the 2000s. Wembanyama is also on track to become the first first-year player to lead the league in blocks. So far, he’s missed just six games which puts him on track to clear the 65-game threshold to be eligible for postseason awards.
In another year, Holmgren would have quite the case for top rookie honors. He’s averaging 16.7 points on 54/39/77 shooting to go along with 7.6 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game. Holmgren is the anchor of one of the league’s best defenses for a Thunder team that will have home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs and he’s yet to miss a game.
Oklahoma City (37–17) is 1.5 games back of the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and is on track to win 50 games for the first time since 2015-16. The arrival of Holmgren, who missed the 2022-23 season due to a foot injury, has helped the Thunder take the next step as a team, primarily on defense.
Wembanyama and Holmgren have gone head-to-head twice now. Oklahoma City won both games handily, but the battles down low between the two first-year seven-footers were something to see. They both struggled when they met in November: Wembanyama put up eight points on 4-15 shooting to go along with 14 rebounds while Holmgren had nine points on 3-10 from the floor and seven rebounds. But in January, Wembanyama went for 24 points, 12 boards and four blocks and Holmgren had 17 points, nine rebounds and swatted three shots.
It’s been years since a center won Rookie of the Year. Karl-Anthony Towns was the last player to do so in 2016 and before that Emeka Okafor did it in 2005. Now, the top two contenders are both big men, battling it out for the top honor among first-year players.
2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds
Victor Wembanyama -800
Chet Holmgren +450
Brandon Miller +10000
Jaime Jaquez Jr. +25000
Scoot Henderson +25000
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