NCAA Men’s Basketball Big Ten Tournament Betting Preview: Top-Seeded Purdue Poised to Defend Title
The Big Ten has belonged to the Purdue Boilermakers over the last two seasons. They are going for their second straight tournament championship this week at the Target Center, a feat last accomplished by the Michigan Wolverines (2017-18).
Purdue is projected to earn a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance for the second season in a row but the rest of the conference has regressed a bit since sending an NCAA-best eight teams dancing a year ago. The Illinois Illini, Northwestern Wildcats, Nebraska Cornhuskers and Wisconsin Badgers are all expected to earn spots while the Michigan State Spartans and Iowa Hawkeyes find themselves on the bubble heading into the conference tournament.
Below is the Big Ten bracket, summaries of the top teams and resume information for all 14 entrants.
(Rankings updated through March 12, odds via FanDuel.)
No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers (28–3, 17–3 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 16–13–2
KenPom Ranking: 3
NET Rating: 2
Odds to win Big Ten: +100
Boilermakers center Zach Edey rebounds against Wisconsin.
Kayla Wolf/USA TODAY Sports
The Boilermakers ran away with their second straight Big Ten regular season title and they head to Minneapolis as the favorites to win the conference tournament for the second year in a row. Senior Zach Edey has been with Purdue for this recent run of regular-season dominance, which has not necessarily translated into success in March, and the All-American center announced this season will be his last with the program. The Boilermakers, winners of 14 of 15, enter the tournament on a five-game winning streak with a matchup with either Michigan State or Minnesota on deck. Purdue beat the Spartans 80–74 less than two weeks ago and defeated the Golden Gophers 84–76 in mid-February.
No. 2 Illinois Illini (23–8, 14–6 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 16–12–3
KenPom Ranking: 10
NET Rating: 15
Odds to win Big Ten: +310
The only loss for the Illini in their last five games was a 77–71 defeat against the Boilermakers last week. They followed that up with a 73–61 road win over Iowa on Saturday and could see the Hawkeyes again soon as Illinois will play the winner between Iowa and Ohio State in the quarterfinals. The Illini swept Iowa, winning both games by double digits, and beat the Buckeyes 87–75 in their lone meeting. Illinois and Purdue are on opposite sides of the bracket, so a potential third matchup wouldn’t occur until the championship game.
No. 3 Nebraska Cornhuskers (22–9, 12–8 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 20–11
KenPom Ranking: 32
NET Rating: 37
Odds to win Big Ten: +900
The Cornhuskers are on their way to earning their second trip to the Big Dance this century and they ended the regular season on a hot streak, winning six of their last seven games. Nebraska earned a double bye to the quarterfinals where it will face Indiana, Penn State or Michigan. It’s a good draw for the Cornhuskers as they swept both the Wolverines and Hoosiers and blew out the Nittany Lions in their lone matchup.
No. 4 Northwestern Wildcats (21–10, 12–8 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 17–12–2
KenPom Ranking: 42
NET Rating: 50
Odds to win Big Ten: +1700
Boo Buie became Northwestern’s all-time leading scorer this season.
Nam Y. Huh/AP
The Wildcats are on their way toward a second consecutive tournament trip, which would only be their third March Madness appearance in program history. Northwestern knocked off then-No. 1 Purdue to begin Big Ten play in December and suffered a Quad 4 loss to Chicago State just a few days later. After back-to-back losses to Iowa and Michigan State, the Wildcats beat Minnesota 90–66 to hang on to the last double bye. That pits NU against Wisconsin, Maryland or Rutgers in the quarterfinals — the Wildcats swept the Terrapins but lost to both the Badgers and Scarlet Knights.
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers (19–12, 11–9 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 13–17–1
KenPom Ranking: 21
NET Rating: 22
Odds to win Big Ten: +1200
Since the start of February, the Badgers have gone just 3–8 following a 16–4 start that saw them climb as high as No. 6 in the AP poll. Wisconsin’s struggles, including a 78–70 loss to Purdue on Sunday, saw the team fall to fifth, setting up a second-round matchup with Rutgers or Maryland. The Scarlet Knights and Terrapins are two of the three teams Wisconsin has defeated over the last few weeks, though it also lost to Rutgers during that stretch.
No. 6 Indiana Hoosiers (18–13, 10–10 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 15–15–1
KenPom Ranking: 86
NET Rating: 93
Odds to win Big Ten: +4000
The Hoosiers have regained some momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament with four straight wins, most recently a 65–64 triumph over Michigan State. That turnaround was huge for an IU team that lost eight of 10 at one point in conference play and is 0–6 against top-25 opponents. The Hoosiers will see the winner of Penn State and Michigan in the second round — they beat the Wolverines in December and were swept by the Nittany Lions.
No. 7 Iowa Hawkeyes (18–13, 10–10 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 12–18–1
KenPom Ranking: 52
NET Rating: 60
Odds to win Big Ten: +3600
No. 8 Michigan State Spartans (18–13, 10–10 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 16–14–1
KenPom Ranking: 19
NET Rating: 25
Odds to win Big Ten: +1400
No. 9 Ohio State Buckeyes (19–12, 9–11 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 14–16–1
KenPom Ranking: 49
NET Rating: 54
Odds to win Big Ten: +3000
No. 10 Minnesota Golden Gophers (18–13, 9–11 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 24–7
KenPom Ranking: 75
NET Rating: 86
Odds to win Big Ten: +10000
No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions (15–16, 9–11 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 16–14–1
KenPom Ranking: 77
NET Rating: 89
Odds to win Big Ten: +11000
No. 12 Maryland Terrapins (15–16, 7–13 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 12–19
KenPom Ranking: 58
NET Rating: 77
Odds to win Big Ten: +6500
No. 13 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (15–16, 7–13 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 13–18
KenPom Ranking: 98
NET Rating: 102
Odds to win Big Ten: +20000
No. 14 Michigan Wolverines (8–23, 3–17 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 8–23
KenPom Ranking: 127
NET Rating: 132
Odds to win Big Ten: +25000
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