Montana State vs. New Mexico Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 0

Reed Wallach | Aug 19, 2024

Nov 11, 2023; Boise, Idaho, USA; New Mexico Lobos quarterback Devon Dampier (13) looks to throw during the second half against the Boise State Broncos at Albertsons Stadium. Boise State defeats New Mexico 42-14. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports / Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Bronco Mendenhall returns to the sidelines in hopes of reviving New Mexico football, but the team faces an elite FCS foe in its opener that has oddsmakers preparing for a slow start for the new look Lobos. 

New Mexico is catching more than a touchdown against FCS powerhouse Montana State, who will look to be in the mix at the top of the polls in college football’s second league. The Lobos are projected to be among the worst in the sport this season, but can Mendenhall have this team ahead of schedule? 

Here’s how to bet the opener on Saturday afternoon. 

Montana State vs. New Mexico Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Montana State: -8.5 (-110)
• New Mexico: +8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Montana State: -330
• New Mexico: +260

Total: 53.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Montana State vs. New Mexico How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, August 24
• Game Time: 4:00 PM EST
• Venue: University Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 1
• Montana State Record: 0-0
• New Mexico Record: 0-0

Montana State vs. New Mexico Key Players to Watch

Montana State

Tommy Mellott: Mellott split time with Sean Chambers last season, but this is his team moving forward after Chambers graduated. He was All-Big Sky Second Team last season and completed more than 62% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions in nine games. He also showcased more than enough ability as a runner, tallying 689 yards on the ground with five touchdowns. 

New Mexico

Devon Dampier: In a lost season in 2023 for the Lobos, the team found some hope at the end, turning the ball to the freshman Dampier, who helped guide the team to wins against Fresno State and a double overtime loss to Utah State. A dynamic runner, Dampier will look to showcase an improved arm to match his ability to extend plays on the ground in offensive coordinator Jason Beck’s system. 

Montana State vs. New Mexico Prediction and Pick

There is a case to be made that the Bobcats will have the best offense in the FCS ranks this season. The team ranks at the top of Bill Connelly’s FCS SP+ rankings in terms of offense and its hard not to be impressed as the team returns Mellott at quarterback, its top four running backs and return its leading pass catcher from last season Ty McCullouch.

Further, on the offensive line, the team can withstand the loss of three starters who transferred out with five guys that have starting experience in the run first scheme. 

Montana State should have a clear edge against New Mexico’s new defense. The team is implementing a new 4-2-5 scheme that will lead to some growing pains early in the season after forcing only eight turnovers last season. While there is production back on the defensive line, including Gabriel Lopez and Tyler Kiehne, the unit will be up against it after ranking 122nd in yards per carry allowed. 

However, I do believe this offense has some upside with Beck joining from Syracuse and a full offseason of Dampier being QB1. 

The 6’0” quarterback is electric as a runner, and I believe his ability to create big plays on the ground and through the air against an FCS level defense can offset some concerns about an offensive line that needs to replace all five starters. 

I believe this game can feature a bunch of explosive plays given the skill position players on both sides. For what it’s worth Beck’s offense at Syracuse was 61st in seconds per snap last season, so we could see an up-tempo affair, especially if the Lobos fall behind like oddsmakers suggest. 

I’ll side with the over in this opening game. 

PICK: OVER 53.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33