Davidson's Jack Gibbs leads SI's Top 100 projected scorers this season

This isn't a list of the best players in college basketball, but of its most potent scorers. And the leader of that list is a non-Power Five star who finished fourth in the country in scoring a year ago.

Sports Illustrated’s College Basketball Projection System is a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs that produces our 1-351 team rankings, conference predictions and player statistical forecasts. For a deeper look at how the system works, read this explainer.

We simulated the season 10,000 times and generated median stats for every player in the top eight conferences (AAC, ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC) as well as our other forecasted at-large bid candidates (Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, BYU, Wichita State, San Diego State and Princeton). Today we’re unveiling our projected top 100 scorers, according to raw points per game, from that set of teams. See every article in our college basketball preview here. 

A key to the charts: Proj. PPG = projected raw points per game in 2016-17. ORtg = projected offensive rating, or points per 100 possessions. Volume = projected percentage of team possessions used while on the floor. Mins = projected percentage of minutes played.

Rank	Player	Team	Pos.	Year	Proj. PPG	ORtg	Volume	Mins	'15-16 PPG
1	Jack Gibbs	Davidson	PG	Sr	23.6	112.2	34%	87%	23.4

Davidson senior shooting guard (and Settlers of Catan gamer) Jack Gibbs is a safe bet to lead the multi-bid conferences in scoring. He was fourth last year, behind only Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield, Mississippi’s Stefan Moody and NC State’s Cat Barber, all of whom have moved on to the pros. Gibbs scored 40 or more points three times as a junior, and although we don’t see his scoring average hitting Stephen Curry range—Steph put up 28.6 as a Davidson junior—a 23.6-per-game projection is more than respectable.

Washington's Markelle Fultz, Duke's Jayson Tatum lead top projected freshmen scorers

Iowa’s Peter Jok (No. 2), who’s likely to take on a huge scoring load now that Jarrod Uthoff is in the NBA, is the only major-conference player SI projects to finish ahead of its No. 1 Naismith-and-Wooden award candidate, Duke’s Grayson Allen, in the national scoring race.

Rank	Player	Team	Pos.	Year	Proj. PPG	ORtg	Volume	Mins	'15-16 PPG
6	Jaron Blossomgame	Clemson	PF	Sr	18.9	120.0	25%	85%	18.7
7	Malcolm Hill	Illinois	SG	Sr	18.7	114.2	28%	86%	18.1
8	Rob Gray	Houston	SG	Jr	18.6	116.1	27%	76%	16.0
9	Ivan Rabb	California	PF	So	18.3	119.7	26%	83%	12.5
10	Markelle Fultz	Washington	PG/SG	Fr	18.2	114.6	27%	81%

Look for Washington’s Markelle Fultz (No. 10), a potential first-overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft, to lead the nation’s freshmen in scoring. SI projects him at 18.2 points per game, the highest of anyone in the Pac-12, where his main competition should be Cal power forward Ivan Rabb (No. 9), a fellow NBA prospect who should make the leap from freshman role player to sophomore star.

Rank	Player	Team	Pos.	Year	Proj. PPG	ORtg	Volume	Mins	'15-16 PPG
11	Kelan Martin	Butler	PF	Jr	18.1	114.0	26%	81%	15.7
12	Nick Emery	BYU	PG	So	17.9	119.3	22%	85%	16.3
13	James Blackmon, Jr.	Indiana	SG	Jr	17.6	124.6	26%	70%	15.8
14	Jaylen Adams	St. Bonaventure	PG	Jr	17.6	121.8	23%	94%	17.9
15	Donte Clark	Massachusetts	SG	Jr	17.5	106.9	26%	82%	16.2
16	Allonzo Trier	Arizona	SG	So	17.3	116.6	23%	80%	14.8
17	Mike Young	Pittsburgh	PF	Sr	17.3	119.3	26%	76%	15.7
18	Stevie Thompson	Oregon St.	SG	So	17.3	110.9	24%	86%	10.6
19	Dillon Brooks	Oregon	SF	Jr	17.2	117.0	26%	82%	16.7
20	Trevon Bluiett	Xavier	SF	Jr	16.9	121.6	22%	85%	15.1

Kelan Martin (No. 11), a 6' 6" hybrid forward who had Butler’s second-highest number of three-point makes last season, projects to become the team’s leading scorer now that Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones are gone. Martin showed flashes of big-time scoring ability as a sophomore—he had 27 and 35 points in back-to-back games against Marquette and Georgetown—and SI projects him to lead the Big East in scoring as a junior. Sophomore guard Nick Emery (No. 12) is similarly poised to take over the scoring lead at BYU in its first year without Kyle Collinsworth and Chase Fischer.

Rank	Player	Team	Pos.	Year	Proj. PPG	ORtg	Volume	Mins	'15-16 PPG
21	Jayson Tatum	Duke	SF	Fr	16.8	117.7	25%	79%
22	Melo Trimble	Maryland	PG	Jr	16.7	113.6	29%	82%	14.8
23	Tyler Cavanaugh	George Washington	PF	Sr	16.7	113.8	25%	79%	16.8
24	J.J. Frazier	Georgia	PG	Sr	16.6	117.0	25%	82%	16.9
25	Dusty Hannahs	Arkansas	SG	Sr	16.5	118.3	24%	68%	16.5
26	Isaac Hamilton	UCLA	SG	Sr	16.5	115.4	22%	85%	16.8
27	Emile Blackman	Duquesne	SG	Sr	16.5	104.0	23%	88%	15.8
28	Moses Kingsley	Arkansas	PF	Sr	16.4	115.2	26%	74%	15.9
29	Rodney Purvis	Connecticut	SG	Sr	16.3	109.5	24%	86%	12.8
30	Jahmal McMurray	South Florida	PG	So	16.3	98.2	25%	93%	15.2
31	B.J. Tyson	East Carolina	PG/SG	Jr	16.3	104.6	25%	86%	14.6
32	Corey Sanders	Rutgers	PG	So	16.2	103.2	27%	87%	15.9
33	Khadeen Carrington	Seton Hall	PG	Jr	16.2	107.2	24%	85%	14.1
34	Yante Maten	Georgia	PF/C	Jr	16.2	106.0	27%	76%	16.5
35	Jawun Evans	Oklahoma St.	PG	So	16.2	112.9	26%	85%	12.9
36	Dedric Lawson	Memphis	PF	So	16.1	105.5	28%	82%	15.8
37	Jabari Bird	California	SG	Sr	16.1	118.8	22%	79%	10.4
38	Peyton Aldridge	Davidson	PF	Jr	16.0	122.9	21%	87%	15.5
39	V.J. Beachem	Notre Dame	SF	Sr	16.0	121.4	20%	83%	12.0
40	Josh Hart	Villanova	SG/SF	Sr	16.0	124.2	23%	79%	15.5

Georgia should have one of the nation’s best scoring duos in guard J.J. Frazier (No. 24) and center Yante Maten (No. 34), but not enough of a supporting cast to project as an NCAA tournament team. Likewise for Oklahoma State, whose starting backcourt of Jawun Evans (No. 35) and Phil Forte III (No. 42) is projected to combine for 32.0 points, but their team projects to finish in the lower half of the Big 12.

Mitchell Layton/Getty

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Rank	Player	Team	Pos.	Year	Proj. PPG	ORtg	Volume	Mins	'15-16 PPG
41	Malik Monk	Kentucky	SG	Fr	16.0	117.1	25%	77%
42	Zach LeDay	Virginia Tech	PF	Sr	15.9	119.5	24%	78%	15.5
43	Phil Forte III	Oklahoma St.	SG	Sr	15.9	120.8	21%	80%	13.3
44	Tres Tinkle	Oregon St.	SF	So	15.9	114.0	23%	83%	13.1
45	Dwayne Bacon	Florida St.	SF	So	15.9	106.8	27%	72%	15.8
46	Jamel Artis	Pittsburgh	PG	Sr	15.9	110.8	24%	82%	14.4
47	Nigel Hayes	Wisconsin	PF	Sr	15.9	113.3	27%	85%	15.7
48	Jordan McLaughlin	USC	PG	Jr	15.8	115.2	23%	88%	13.4
49	Josh Jackson	Kansas	SF	Fr	15.7	119.0	23%	79%
50	Maurice Watson Jr.	Creighton	PG	Sr	15.6	112.6	27%	85%	14.1
51	Bryant Crawford	Wake Forest	PG	So	15.6	101.9	26%	85%	13.8
52	Jordan Woodard	Oklahoma	PG	Sr	15.5	115.8	23%	85%	13.0
53	Monte Morris	Iowa St.	PG	Sr	15.5	121.4	24%	90%	13.8
54	Dennis Smith Jr.	North Carolina St.	PG	Fr	15.4	120.1	22%	87%
55	Charles Cooke	Dayton	SG	Sr	15.4	110.9	24%	79%	15.6
56	Josh Hawkinson	Washington St.	PF	Sr	15.4	114.5	22%	82%	15.4
57	ShawnDre' Jones	Richmond	PG	Sr	15.3	116.1	22%	87%	14.7
58	E.C. Matthews	Rhode Island	SG	Sr	15.3	109.2	24%	79%	0.0
59	Obi Enechionyia	Temple	PF	Jr	15.3	111.8	24%	74%	11.0
60	Mike Crawford	Saint Louis	SG	Sr	15.2	105.8	21%	87%	10.3

This tier is heavy on veteran go-to-guys. Wisconsin’s Nigel Hayes (No. 46) is a Big Ten Player of the Year candidate if he bounces back from a junior season in which he struggled as a long-range shooter. Creighton’s Maurice Watson Jr. (No. 50) is a Big East Player of the Year candidate if the Bluejays can stick in the top 25 and his prime competition falls under their projections. Rhode Island’s E.C. Matthews (No. 58), who tore his ACL in the Rams’ season opener last year and missed the rest of the season, is back and should push the Rams into the NCAA tournament.

Rank	Player	Team	Pos.	Year	Proj. PPG	ORtg	Volume	Mins	'15-16 PPG
61	Ja'Quan Newton	Miami FL	PG	Jr	15.0	109.3	27%	79%	10.5
62	Nate Mason	Minnesota	PG	Jr	15.0	109.7	24%	85%	13.8
63	Bryant McIntosh	Northwestern	PG	Jr	15.0	111.3	26%	89%	13.8
64	Damyean Dotson	Houston	SF	Sr	14.9	127.1	20%	80%	13.9
65	Marc Loving	Ohio St.	PF	Sr	14.9	113.8	21%	84%	14.0
66	Henry Caruso	Princeton	F	Sr	14.9	120.3	24%	70%	15.0
67	Antonio Blakeney	LSU	SG	So	14.8	115.4	21%	76%	12.6
68	Pat Birt	Tulsa	SG	Sr	14.8	107.0	23%	76%	12.0
69	Rodney Bullock	Providence	PF	Jr	14.7	99.3	25%	81%	11.4
70	Bryce Alford	UCLA	PG/SG	Sr	14.7	116.5	22%	80%	16.1
71	Shep Garner	Penn St.	PG	Jr	14.7	108.8	24%	84%	14.8
72	Desi Rodriguez	Seton Hall	SF	Jr	14.7	110.5	23%	75%	12.4
73	George King	Colorado	SG/SF	Jr	14.7	109.3	24%	70%	13.6
74	Kris Jenkins	Villanova	SF/PF	Sr	14.6	124.3	21%	75%	13.6
75	Kyle Kuzma	Utah	PF	Jr	14.6	107.6	25%	78%	10.8
76	Billy Garrett Jr.	DePaul	PG	Sr	14.5	108.2	27%	76%	12.6
77	Jermaine Bishop	Saint Louis	PG	So	14.3	99.5	25%	79%	8.9
78	Tra Holder	Arizona St.	PG	Jr	14.3	104.7	25%	79%	14.2
79	Tyler Davis	Texas A&M	C	So	14.3	114.4	24%	70%	11.3
80	Sindarius Thornwell	South Carolina	PG/SG	Sr	14.3	111.3	22%	84%	13.4

This is the next-man-up tier: With Ben Simmons no longer dominating LSU’s offense, sophomore Antonio Blakeney (No. 67) is its likely new scoring leader. After two years as a role player supporting future first-round NBA draft picks, Kyle Kuzma (No. 71) is ready to be Utah’s lead guy in a balanced offense. It’s Rodney Bullock’s (No. 69) turn to do the same at Providence, with Kris Dunn having moved on to the Timberwolves and Ben Bentil to the Celtics.

Rank	Player	Team	Pos.	Year	Proj. PPG	ORtg	Volume	Mins	'15-16 PPG
81	Jalen Brunson	Villanova	PG	So	14.2	115.0	22%	82%	9.6
82	Marcus Foster	Creighton	SG	Jr	14.2	111.3	23%	71%
83	Zak Irvin	Michigan	SF	Sr	14.1	110.9	23%	85%	11.8
84	Bonzie Colson, Jr.	Notre Dame	PF	Jr	14.1	123.8	25%	68%	11.1
85	James Demery	Saint Joseph's	SF	Jr	14.1	106.6	21%	86%	8.1
86	Conner Frankamp	Wichita St.	PG	Jr	14.0	123.9	18%	85%	6.1
87	Matt Mobley	St. Bonaventure	SG	Jr	14.0	107.3	23%	75%
88	Frank Mason	Kansas	PG	Sr	14.0	120.1	21%	86%	12.9
89	Justin Jackson	North Carolina	SF	Jr	13.9	125.1	22%	74%	12.2
90	Lorenzo Bonam	Utah	PG/SG	Sr	13.9	115.1	21%	86%	10.2
91	Troy Caupain	Cincinnati	PG	Sr	13.9	112.9	22%	86%	13.0
92	Tyler Lydon	Syracuse	PF	So	13.9	112.6	23%	77%	10.1
93	Jared Terrell	Rhode Island	PG/SG	Jr	13.9	109.2	22%	85%	13.6
94	Steve Vasturia	Notre Dame	SG	Sr	13.9	114.2	21%	90%	11.4
95	Seth Allen	Virginia Tech	CG	Sr	13.9	106.1	28%	63%	14.7
96	Austin Nichols	Virginia	SF	Jr	13.8	107.7	25%	71%
97	Andrew White III	Syracuse	SF	Sr	13.8	111.5	23%	71%	16.6
98	Trey Kell	San Diego St.	SG/PG	Jr	13.8	109.8	23%	74%	12.6
99	Kerwin Roach, Jr.	Texas	PG	So	13.8	106.6	24%	77%	7.5
100	Lonzo Ball	UCLA	PG	Fr	13.8	116.9	22%	77%

Here come the key transfers: Creighton’s Marcus Foster (No. 82) averaged 15.5 points as a Kansas State freshman in 2013–14 and is ready to get his career back on track in Omaha. Andrew White III (No. 97) left Nebraska and graduate-transferred into a situation at Syracuse where he could very well be the leading scorer. Former Memphis power forward Austin Nichols (No. 96) projects to lead a balanced Virginia team in points, as does former Kansas guard Conner Frankamp (No. 86) at Wichita State.