Bowl projections: Predicting the playoff, other bowls at midseason

College football 2015-16 bowl projections: Predicting the playoff, New Year's Six and at midseason

It seems the Pac-12 could be headed for a similar fate as last season’s Big 12.

Just two teams—Stanford and Utah—remain unbeaten in Pac-12 play through seven weeks of football. In our projections, the Cardinal run the table and topple the Utes in the conference title game. But even with a Pac-12 championship in hand, Stanford might not have the résumé to reach the College Football Playoff. We project Baylor, Michigan State and Clemson to all finish as unbeaten conference champs. Meanwhile, SEC champ Alabama is projected to end the year with one loss, but that setback (a 43-37 loss to Ole Miss) will look better in the eyes of the committee committee than Stanford’s 16-6 loss to Northwestern.

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This season 40 bowls make up the 2015 postseason: the New Year’s Six Bowls, which include the two playoff semifinals, and 34 lower-tier bowls. Before moving forward, here’s a quick reminder on how this all works:

The selection committee fills the two semifinal bowls based on its final rankings. It then rounds out the four non-playoff New Year’s Six bowls while fulfilling certain contractual obligations, such as pitting the Big Ten against the Pac-12 in the Rose Bowl. The committee is required to place the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion in a New Year’s Six bowl. The remaining teams are then fed into each league’s contract bowls. If a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams, bowls can invite replacement teams from other leagues.

The ACC, Big Ten and SEC each pool a select number of bowls together and decide where to place teams. While the Big 12 and Pac-12 use a straightforward method—the Pac-12’s No. 2 choice would go to the Alamo Bowl, the No. 3 to the Holiday Bowl, etc.—the process for the other three Power Five leagues is less structured. For instance, the ACC’s No. 2 choice will go to the Russell Athletic Bowl, but teams Nos. 3–6 can land anywhere among the Sun, Belk, Music City/Taxslayer or Pinstripe bowls.

Keep in mind, the Pac-12’s No. 2 bowl doesn't automatically take the conference’s second-place team. Fan travel, location and matchup considerations all factor into bowl selection as much as conference standings. Leagues aren't obligated to fill bowls based on records.

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Disclaimer: While our preseason bowl projections were based on predicted finishes in SI.com’s conference primers, midseason projections are based on the author’s personal assessment of current conference standings.

bOWL	DATE	LOCATION	MATCHUP	PICK
Orange Bowl (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Miami Gardens, Fla.	No. 1 vs. No. 4	Alabama vs. Clemson
Cotton Bowl (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Arlington, Tex.	No. 2 vs. No. 3	Baylor vs. Mich. St.
Peach Bowl	Dec. 31	Atlanta, Ga.	at-large vs. at-large	Utah vs. Florida State
Fiesta Bowl	Jan. 1	Glendale, Ariz.	at-large vs. Group of Five	Notre Dame vs. Memphis
Rose Bowl	Jan. 1	Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Ohio St. vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl	Jan. 1	New Orleans, La.	SEC vs. Big 12	LSU vs. TCU

bowl	date	location	matchup	pick
New Orleans Bowl	Dec. 19	New Orleans, La.	Sun Belt vs. CUSA	Ga. Southern vs. La. Tech
New Mexico Bowl	Dec. 19	Albequerque, N.M.	CUSA vs. MW	MTSU vs. New Mex.
Las Vegas Bowl	Dec. 19	Las Vegas	MW/BYU vs. Pac-12	BYU vs. Arizona
Cure Bowl	Dec. 19	Orlando, Fla.	AAC vs. Sun Belt	Tulsa vs. Ark. State
Camellia Bowl	Dec. 19	Montgomery, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Ohio vs. App. St.
Miami Beach Bowl	Dec. 21	Miami, Fla.	AAC vs. CUSA	Cincinnati vs. West. Ky.
Idaho Potato Bowl	Dec. 22	Boise, Idaho	MAC vs. MW	BGSU vs. Col. St.
Boca Raton Bowl	Dec. 22	Boca Raton, Fla.	AAC vs. MAC	USF vs. West. Mich.
Poinsettia Bowl	Dec. 23	San Diego, Calif.	MW vs. Army	SDSU vs. Central Mich.*
GoDaddy Bowl	Dec. 23	Mobile, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Toledo vs. South Ala.
Bahamas Bowl	Dec. 24	Nassau, Bahamas	CUSA vs. MAC	Old Dominion vs. North. Ill.
Hawaii Bowl	Dec. 24	Honolulu, Hawaii	AAC vs. MW/BYU	ECU vs. Boise St.
Heart of Dallas Bowl	Dec. 26	Dallas, Tex.	Big 12/Big Ten vs. CUSA	Indiana vs. So. Miss.
St. Petersburg Bowl	Dec. 26	St. Petersburg, Fla.	AAC vs. CUSA	Temple vs. Marshall
Sun Bowl	Dec. 26	El Paso, Tex.	ACC vs. Pac-12	Va. Tech vs. Oregon
Independence Bowl	Dec. 26	Shreveport, La.	ACC vs. SEC	Louisville vs. Missouri
Foster Farms Bowl	Dec. 26	Santa Clara, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Nebraska vs. USC
Pinstripe Bowl	Dec. 26	Bronx, N.Y.	ACC vs. Big Ten	Pitt vs. Northwestern
Quick Lane Bowl	Dec. 28	Detroit, Mich.	ACC vs. Big Ten	Air Force* vs. Illinois
Military Bowl	Dec. 28	Annapolis, Md.	ACC vs. AAC	NC State vs. Navy
Arizona Bowl	Dec. 29	Tucson, Ariz	MW vs. CUSA	Nevada vs. Rice
Russell Athletic Bowl	Dec. 29	Orlando, Fla.	ACC vs. Big 12	Duke vs. West Va.
Texas Bowl	Dec. 29	Houston, Tex.	Big 12 vs. SEC	Kan. St. vs. Tex. A&M
Armed Forces Bowl	Dec. 29	Fort Worth, Tex.	Big Ten/Big 12 vs. MW	Wash. St.* vs. Utah St.
Music City Bowl	Dec. 30	Nashville, Tenn.	ACC vs. SEC	Miami vs. Tennessee
Holiday Bowl	Dec. 30	San Diego, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Penn St. vs. UCLA
Belk Bowl	Dec. 30	Charlotte, N.C.	ACC vs. SEC	UNC vs. Auburn
Birmingham Bowl	Dec. 30	Birmingham, Ala.	AAC vs. SEC	Houston vs. Kentucky
Outback Bowl	Jan. 1	Tampa, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Citrus Bowl	Jan. 1	Orlando, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Iowa vs. Florida
Liberty Bowl	Jan. 2	Memphis, Tenn.	Big 12 vs. SEC	Okla. St. vs. Miss. St.
TaxSlayer Bowl	Jan. 2	Jacksonville, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Wisc. vs. Georgia
Alamo Bowl	Jan. 2	San Antonio, Tex.	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Okla. vs. Ariz. St.
Cactus Bowl	Jan. 2	Phoenix, Ariz.	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Tex. Tech vs. Cal

*Replacement team