Arkansas Finds Itself Underdog Against UNC-Wilmington in Every Way Possible

Sheer numbers say Razorbacks have little chance against Seahawks Saturday

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Dec 26, 2023 1:46 PM EST

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – When Razorback fans took a look at the schedule, especially in the shadow of an exhibition win over Purdue, the game against UNC-Wilmington to close out the non-conference schedule was more or less assumed in the win column for a little extra momentum heading into SEC play.

That's not the case today as Eric Musselman's team gets set to kick off what will be over a month of Arkansas playing the underdog. The 9-2 record, along with a signature win over No. 8 Kentucky, is enough to make fans understand why the Seahawks are expected to come into Fayetteville and come away with a win.

However, the raw numbers are more than enough to make the case the Razorbacks will be the underdog Saturday. Take a look. The Hogs are outclassed in nearly every statistical category.

Points Per Game
SEAHAWKS – 86.1
RAZORBACKS – 80.09

Field Goal Percentage
SEAHAWKS – 48.31
RAZORBACKS – 47.24

3-Point Percentage
SEAHAWKS – 38.93
RAZORBACKS – 33.94

Free Throw Percentage
SEAHAWKS – 74.11
RAZORBACKS – 70.89

Assists
SEAHAWKS – 13.4
RAZORBACKS – 12.27

Fouls
SEAHAWKS – 17.5
RAZORBACKS – 20.27

Turnovers
SEAHAWKS – 9.0
RAZORBACKS – 12.18

Steals
SEAHAWKS – 7.1
RAZORBACKS – 5.91

The Razorbacks fall behind in every traditional statistical category but one. The lone glimmer of hope for Arkansas is in rebounding where the Hogs a slight edge, 36.82 to UNC Wilmington's 35.6.

The most concerning statistic is the 39% shooting from three. Arkansas has been terrible from three. Bad habits such as closing out late, getting in the air before the shot and also charging hard at a 3-point shooter who hasn't stopped his dribble have killed the Razorbacks on perimeter defense.

The Seahawks are a team that scores in waves. Hot shooting from three could very well prolong those waves. Teams tend to battle back between runs, but when those runs aren't shortened, games get away fast.

This is what happened to Kentucky. The Wildcats found themselves down 14 late in the first half, then spent the rest of the game clawing back from mini-wave after mini-wave. The Wildcats eventually got the lead briefly, but spent so much energy that one final run finished them off, 80-73 in Rupp Arena.

The other concern for Musselman is the depth and length of the Seahawks. UNCW head coach Takayo Siddle often subs out line-ups five players at a time, keeping legs fresh to run past teams in the final minutes. He can run a big group of 6-foot-7 to 6-foot-9 highly athletic big men. Then he can pop in a line-up stacked with 6-foot-2 to 6-foot-3 slashers who attack the basket for easy buckets while racking up fouls from sloppy defense in the process.

The hybrid who creates mismatches no matter which line-up is on the floor is Trazarien White, a junior from Texas who easily could have pursued NIL opportunities through the transfer portal, but has remained loyal to the Seahawks all three years. The best way to paint the picture for Arkansas fans is to imagine if Anthony Black and Jaylin Williams were genetically spliced together then a hint of literal Razorback gene was thrown in to make him more muscular.

White came off the bench to log 30 minutes against Kentucky. He punished the Wildcats for 27 points and 10 rebounds. He put up another 27 points against Marshall this past weekend. More than half the time, White's going to put up at least 20 points.

As for keying on someone else to stop, it's just not going to happen. The Seahawks are so deep and so many players take their fair share of shots that any of another 10 players could get hot and burn down Bud Walton. Donovan Newby may get hot in the starting line-up or KJ Jenkins may get hot off the bench, but, in all likelihood, it's going to be death by firing squad and no one is going to know who fired the fatal bullet.

Nine players took a three in the win over Kentucky. Seven knocked one down. On top of that, they all appear to play solid, in your face defense.

For a team like Arkansas that plays up or down to its competition, it's going to be important to ignore the jersey. Instead, the Razorbacks are going to have to play up to the team that's actually on the floor because there's not a lot of teams in the country that are better, regardless of whose name in written across the front.