2024 Genesis Invitational: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Riviera Country Club

Our expert likes one of the game's top young stars to prevail on one of the Tour's top layouts.

Author:
Keith Stewart, PGA
Publish date:
Feb 13, 2024

PACIFIC PALISADES, Calif. — Will Tiger Woods be our seventh straight winner on the PGA Tour with pre-tournament odds over 100-1 to win? He meets the criteria. On Monday when the odds boards were released, Woods was 200-1. Not many would have given Grayson Murray a chance at the Sony Open or first-time French winner Matthieu Pavon a fighting chance at the Farmers, but it happened. So, can Tiger win the Genesis Invitational?

Before I answer that question and release our win, place and show for the week, let’s take a closer look at the venue and our past champions.

Riviera Country Club is arguably one of the best layouts on Tour. The George Thomas Jr.–William Bell (1927) design certainly stands out in a TPC sea of similarity. When you look at the list of past champions a couple of interesting trends stand out. The par-71 layout measures 7,322 yards. The scorecard shows 11 par-4s, four par-3s and three par-5s. Set in a valley amongst the Santa Monica mountains, Riviera doesn’t really have very many elevation changes. Once you walk down from the clubhouse, you are in the valley until you reach the 18th fairway.

The 18th hole green and hillside are pictured at the 2023 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club. — Historic Riviera Country Club is the site for the Genesis Invitational, where fans watch from the hillside next to the 18th green.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports

One of the unique aspects of Riviera Country Club is the layout. Each nine takes you away from the clubhouse in the southwest direction and returns you back northeast when you finish. We aren’t far from the Pacific Ocean and when the tide comes in and out so does the wind. By going out toward the water in the early round you would feel the wind behind you. Make the turn on each nine and head back to the clubhouse you are going northeast. When the tide returns in the afternoon, the wind shifts and those holes would play downwind.

That’s significant, because each nine ends with a couple of brutally difficult holes. What makes “Riv” difficult is the decision making. Great golf course architecture offers multiple options. Playing here for the eight first timers in the field is a disadvantage. Can Ludvig Åberg or Nicolai Hojgaard win? Yes, they are that good, but put them up against talented stars like Patrick Cantlay and Adam Scott who have a combined 23 appearances and I might take the veterans.

The average winning score for the tournament over the past 10 years is 14 under par. Major championships have been played here. The average cutline over the decade is 2 over par.

The cut and the field this week are special. Make sure you understand these details when it comes to your one-and-dones, DFS lineups, and weekend wagers. Seventy players are in the field playing for $20 million. First place will receive $4 million, which is the highest payout for any regular-season signature event to date. Tiger wanted a cut for his event and the Tour sort of gave him one. The top 50 and ties make the weekend along with anyone within 10 shots of the lead. Could all 70 players make the cut? Yes. Could the leader go out in 15 under and hold a five-shot lead after 36 holes? Yes, and the bottom 20 could go home.

Those who make the weekend will follow this blueprint. Riviera is one of the toughest courses to find the green on approach. Players hit 58% of their greens in regulation, which is well below the Tour average. These are some of the largest green surfaces on Tour, so what is the catch? Riviera also owns some of the narrowest fairways and they bend a bunch. Doglegs make fairways even more difficult to hit.

Strokes-gained ballstriking is the combination of driving and approach acumen. Those who win the Genesis are great at both. Bubba Watson won here three times in the last 10 years. Bubba also won two green jackets in that time. Riviera rewards shotmakers. It also rewards short game. If you are going to miss that many greens, you’ll need some serious bogey avoidance.

Par-4 scoring is key on the 11 par-4s. The last four par-4s on the back nine average 475 yards. Making birdies from over 200 yards is your biggest separation factor at the Genesis. Wet conditions have plagued Los Angeles for the past two weeks. Riviera has received almost 10 inches of rain since Feb. 1! The course doesn’t feel as wet as Pebble Beach, but it is not playing firm by any stretch. Guys are hitting drivers on the practice tee and plan to attack off the tee.

I’m favoring players who have experience here and are in great ballstriking form. If the last six weeks have taught us anything, anybody can win. I know Tiger is a longshot, but his last top 10 at the Genesis was in 2004. Will he thrill us with a weekend run? Yes, I believe he will make the cut. But the chances of him winning with the field in front of him are near impossible. I think the longshot streak comes to an end in the premier event of the West Coast Swing. Take a look at my favorites as we get ready to enjoy Woods and the world’s best back in action.

Win: Ludvig Åberg

As I was checking the analytics for all the skills needed to win at Riviera, one name kept popping up again and again: Ludvig Åberg. I’m not ready to call him a generational talent by any means, but you just cannot ignore what the kid has done. Åberg’s true talent is ballstriking. He’s the best driver in the field behind Rory and his long-iron play is a separation skill. He can putt Poa and possesses a really savvy short game. He played in a Ryder Cup before he played in a major! Ludvig finished runner-up at 54-hole Pebble Beach and I believe that unfinished business is coming to Los Angeles and will outweigh the lack of course experience in his rookie run at Riviera. Take Ludvig Åberg to win the Genesis Invitational (+2000 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. J.T. Poston missed the cut in Scottsdale.
Year-to-date: 0–6, -6.00 units

Place: Scottie Scheffler

A top-5 bet on Scottie Scheffler is kind of the best of both worlds. You can add him as an outright in the “live” markets as the event evolves knowing you already have his T5 finish or better already covered. Let’s be honest, he shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon and Riviera favors Masters winners. In a ballstrikers' playground, feel safe taking the No. 1 player in the world with a little wiggle room. Take Scottie Scheffler to finish Top 5 (+163 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. Byeong Hun An finished T66 as a top-20 bet.
Year-to-date: 2–4, -1.32 units

Showdown: Collin Morikawa over Max Homa

DraftKings has this head-to-head matchup even. Based upon what I have seen on-site for the past two weeks on Tour, Max Homa is searching for something. His record in Scottsdale was good until he missed the cut. Collin Morikawa’s changes after he switched coaches in the fall seem to really be taking hold. In three starts this year, Morikawa has two top-15 finishes. His ballstriking will create an edge over 72 holes at Riviera and allow him to best his Cal Bear counterpart. Take Collin Morikawa over Max Homa head-to-head (-110 DraftKings).

Last week's result: Lost. Adam Hadwin (MC) failed to beat Cameron Young (T8).
Year-to-date: 3–2, +0.70 units

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.