2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Vidanta Vallarta

The world No. 1 is priced far too low, so our expert is looking at another big hitter to succeed at a brawny course.

We have officially reached no-man’s land in the middle of the PGA Tour schedule. With nine designated/major events in the next 17 weeks, it looks like almost everyone is taking a little rest. Of the top-shelf players on tour, only Jon Rahm and Tony Finau have made the migration south of the border to the Mexico Open at Vidanta. Starting a second year as an official Tour event, the Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta is the host venue.

We saw the Tour tee it up last year on this par 71 measuring over 7,500 yards. For two weeks in a row the guys will grab the driver and swing away. TPC Louisiana was a healthy 7,400+ yards last week.

• Players will face two par-3s over 200 yards, two par-5s over 600 yards, and five par-4s over 475 yards at Vidanta Vallarta.
• Three players in the top 50 in the OWGR (two in top 50 SIWGR) are competing.
• The total purse is $7.7 million. First place will earn $1.386 million.

The field of 144 will be cut down to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes. Getting to the weekend will take some serious birdie-making ability from long range. The hallmark of Norman’s design is length on approach. Over 40% of the iron shots come from over 200 yards. Add to those approaches four par-5s to reach in two from long range and there’s a very specific recipe for winning in Puerta Vallarta.

After three weeks of questionable weather, the PGA Tour has found some guaranteed resort sunshine. No rain is in the forecast and the temperatures should range from mid-60s to mid-80s all four rounds. The wind always kicks up in the afternoon, though, as Vidanta Vallarta is less than a mile from the Pacific coast. Conditions will play firm and fast and that’s good as everyone will be looking for as much roll as they can get.

Driving distance was the dominant skill last year. Eight of the top 10 finishers spent the season in the top 50 for driving distance on the Tour. Top 50 might not sound long, but those guys still average 306.5 yards off the tee. The more length players have from the tee box helps significantly on approach at a course where long irons reign. Vidanta also has a couple of short par 4s.

Strokes-gained off the tee was the only major strokes-gained category where the entire top 10 all had positive gains in 2022. Conversely, five of those finishers lost strokes around the green. Tied with strokes-gained putting and approach, it was obvious you must be a strong ball striker to survive this test. Speaking of tests, this course does have a bunch of them. If anything is going to slow down the world’s No. 1 golfer Jon Rahm for the rest of the field to contend, it just might be the sand. There are 106 bunkers in and around all 18 holes. Throw in 12 holes where water comes into play and you can quickly see why the winning score was 17 under par and not much lower.

Rahm is a big favorite as the defending champion, but five players in the top 10 a year ago had pre-tourney odds of +8000 (80-1) or higher. With a cutline at 1 under a year ago, this driver paradise will suit a bunch of different bombers. Seaside Paspalum covers the ground and while it's not the world’s most difficult grass to handle, it helps mitigate great putters and keeps the rough manageable. Due to the average length of approach shots, greens average about 7,000 square feet. A big enough target from close range these putting surfaces shrink from over 200 yards away.

Both Finau and Rahm finished in the top two a year ago and I expect they will both contend again. Each plays a fade off the tee and Vidanta favors a left-to-right ball flight. There are more bunkers than trees on the course, but sometimes it is also about how the course “looks.” Jon Rahm comes in at +260 (2.6-1) to win. I can’t imagine many betting him at that number. Since he’s off my board, look at these wagers for this week’s Win, Place, and Show.

Win: Gary Woodland

One year ago, Gary Woodland rolled into Puerta Vallarta as a tournament favorite. He’s near the top of the betting board again, but I believe this year he has a better chance. Woodland is a former Pacific coast winner as the 2019 U.S. Open champ from Pebble Beach. His wind game is solid and length unquestionable, averaging 311.6 yards off the tee for ninth on tour. He’s ranked second in the field in approaches over 200 yards and finished T24 last year. The putter was hot a couple weeks ago at the RBC Heritage and if it pops again, it will put him right in the winner’s circle. Take Gary Woodland +2200 (SI Sportsbook) to win the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Last week's pick: Sam Burns and Billy Horschel finished T11, not hot enough in the alternate-shot format to make a run at the win.

Place: Aaron Rai

Watch out for Aaron Rai. He won the Scottish Open in coastal conditions and has been showing super form recently. He was the first-round leader at the RBC Heritage and on a T13 team last week in New Orleans. Known as a strong long-iron player, he flights the ball well and plays difficult courses better than the field average. Take Aaron Rai to finish inside the top 20 (+190 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's pick: The team of Sam Burns and Billy Horschel was tabbed as a top 10 and finished an agonizing one shot out of the cash at T11

Showdown: Nicolai Hojgaard over Alex Noren

I'm taking the longest player in the field against a guy who has lost strokes off the tee in his last six straight starts. You cannot live without the driver at Vidanta. Take Nicolai Hojgaard over Alex Noren (-130 DraftKings).

Last week's pick: Winner! Burns/Horschel came home in a matchup over Kurt Kitayama and Taylor Montgomery when the pair took a quadruple-bogey 9 (!) on the 72nd hole.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Mexico Open and LPGA’s JM Eagle LA Championship, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook

Jon Rahm +260

Tony Finau +750

Wyndham Clark +1800

Gary Woodland +2200

Nicolai Hojgaard +2800

Maverick McNealy +3000

Patrick Rodgers +3000

Byeong Hun An +3300

Beau Hossler +3500

Alex Noren +4000

Stephan Jaeger +4000

Alex Smalley +4500

Emiliano Grillo +4500