2023 RBC Canadian Open: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Oakdale Golf and Country Club

Our expert picked Viktor Hovland last week and is going for two in a row with a resurgent star.

I am fired up to write the betting preview for a couple of reasons. First, we won last week picking Viktor Hovland. Next, the news of the week is great for golf and especially golf betting. The combination of a new “world tour” and the best players on the planet playing together will excite betting markets. The disruption caused by LIV took some of our favorite outright players off the board for the past year. Brooks, DJ, and Cam Smith are coming back and that is good for everyone involved.

In the shadow of this week’s headlines is the RBC Canadian Open. Oakdale Golf and Country Club is the 37th different venue to host Canada’s national championship. The 27-hole facility in suburban Toronto has 11 of the top 50 in the OWGR (8 of top 30 SIWGR) on property ready to compete. One of those 11 is Rory McIlroy, the two-time defending champion. His two back-to-back victories cover four years (2019, 2022), but who’s counting. No tournaments were played in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID-19 restrictions.

Rory may be a bit distracted this week and as a result we are going to look a little further down the betting board. Before we get to the weekly Win, Place, and Show, let’s look at the forecast and course conditions.

• The forecast in Toronto is excellent for the opening two rounds. Temperatures are forecasted in the low 70s, the wind is mild under 10 mph, and no rain.
• Over the weekend, the temperature should remain the same, but we expect a little rain and more wind. There’s a 50% chance of showers on both Saturday and Sunday.

The field of 156 players will attempt to make the top 65 and ties for the weekend. Those guys will play for the $9 million purse and $1.62 million first-place check. Oakdale Golf and Country Club is hosting the Canadian Open for the first time. The course has 27-holes and the tournament layout is a combination of all three nines. Make sure in your research you are handicapping the correct holes.

• Front nine: Thompson 1, 3, 8, 9, followed by the Homenuik 1, 2, 4, 8, 9
• Back nine: Knudson 1-9
• Par-72 measuring 7,264 yards

The original course was designed by Stanley Thompson. The most recent renovation was under the guidance of Ian Andrew. I spoke with Ian about the course and what skills were needed to contend. Since the national championship moves every year, having his input is critical to building a successful card. Andrew stressed the importance of accuracy over length. “The rough will be high, and the fairways cut at Tour width,” he mentioned.

Comparable courses on Tour are the event at Pebble Beach and Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship). Andrew also did the renovation work at last year’s Canadian Open host venue St. George’s. He said the two are comparable and focus on the same skills. Overall, players will need to be excellent on approach with a wedge in hand. The greens are subtle and capitalizing on birdie opportunities will be key. Pick good putters.

I love the Pebble pattern of being patient off the tee and attacking the greens with a scoring wedge. Those players who can control their ball for long and short par-4s really catch my eye. The 4s range from 367 to 489 yards. It takes a varied skill set to handle all 12 of them. Proximity to the hole is ultimately the best measure for creating opportunities. It is a heavy approach and birdie conversion week. My Win, Place, and Show reflects players who can hit it close and make the putt.

Win: Justin Rose

Justin Rose proved he can be patient and score when he won at Pebble Beach in February. Rose is ranked second in strokes-gained approach and third in proximity to the hole and par-4 scoring in the field. Over his last five starts, Justin is gaining six strokes tee-to-green and another stroke with the putter. At the top of the betting board, only Rory has more career wins. Take Justin Rose (+1800 SI Sportsbook) to win the RBC Canadian Open.

Last week's pick: Winner! Viktor Hovland got the cash at +1800. Hope you got a piece of the Norwegian.

Place: Corey Conners

I believe Corey Conners was looking ahead last week when he missed the cut at The Memorial. This is his national championship and the last time a native Canadian won was 1914! Conners is top 10 in every ball striking category needed to contend. With a sixth-place finish a year ago, he’ll know he can perform in front of a home crowd and contend again. Take Corey Conners to finish top 20 (-118 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's pick: Winner! Hideki Matsuyama shot 75-76 in his final two rounds but held on for T16 and we bet him to place in the top 20.

Showdown: Eric Cole over Nicolai Hojgaard

Eric Cole is playing some serious golf. He finished 24th at the Memorial and just qualified for the U.S. Open on Monday by making 10 birdies and an eagle in 36 holes. Nicolai Hojgaard on the other hand missed the cut at the Memorial and is outside the top 60 approach players in this field. Take Eric Cole over Nicolai Hojgaard head-to-head (-130 Draftkings). 

Last week's pick: Hideki Matsuyama tumbled over the weekend at the Memorial while Jordan Spieth was steady and won the showdown, which was a loser for us.

Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook

Rory McIlroy +450

Tyrrell Hatton +1100

Matt Fitzpatrick +1200

Cameron Young +1400

Sam Burns +1400

Corey Conners +1600

Justin Rose +1800

Shane Lowry +1800

Tommy Fleetwood +2000

Sahith Theegala +2800

Keith Mitchell +3300

Adam Hadwin +4000

Adrian Meronk +4000

Matt Kuchar +4000

Ludvig Aberg +5000