2023 Ryder Cup Bettors' Roundtable: Golf Gambling Experts and Writers Break Down the Matches in Rome
The 2023 Ryder Cup is upon us, and as we do for golf’s biggest events, we convened a roundtable of golf writers, editors and gambling experts to break down the match and offer some wagering tips. Joining this panel: SI Golf's Bob Harig, Alex Miceli and Jeff Ritter, plus SI contributor Gary Van Sickle, Read the Line founder Keith Stewart and Rotowire's Len Hochberg.
Ready for Rome: Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler.
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Onto the questions;
Marco Simone GC will be set up by the European side. The venue is already hilly and lush, and we can expect narrow fairways, deep rough and slower greens than an average U.S. venue. We haven’t had a close Ryder Cup since 2012 at Medinah, and last week in an SI.com interview former caddie-turned-NBC-broadcaster John Wood suggested that course setups have become too extreme, causing more blowouts. Does he have a point?
Bob Harig, SI Golf: He does have a point in that the venues are now being set up much differently to attempt to play to the strengths of the home team. The general view is that the Europeans want narrow fairways, thick rough and slower greens; the Americans want wide-open fairways, easy pins and fast greens. All that is fine but there is also a contradiction: European players such as Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland, to name three, play a majority of their golf on the PGA Tour. They see the same conditions as the Americans. Does it really help them? Perhaps it’s time for the Ryder Cup to simply set up the course as would be done for a major championship while not attempting to benefit anyone but providing a test that elicits the most drama.
Alex Miceli, SI Golf: Not sure I agree with John Wood’s premise that harder setups create more blowouts, but I believe that such setups take away the entertainment value of the matches. No one wants to see players hack and chop out of the rough. Where is the entertainment value in that?
Keith Stewart, Read the Line: Historically Wood has a great point, but this 44th Ryder Cup match presents two very similarly skilled teams. To follow Wood’s trend would be an error for Europe. For example, Europe has the hottest young driver in the game (Aberg) and the overall best driver in the world (McIlroy). Designing a landscape that mitigates driving to handicap the Americans would be a mistake. Europe’s side is statistically better off the tee and would benefit from using driver, which is a dramatic difference from the 2018 team in France.
Len Hochberg, Rotowire: Yeah, he does. Maybe it's too small of a sample size to say for certain—only four Cups—but it makes a lot of sense. And if it continues, then the results could become predictable, and that's the death knell for a sporting event. I don't know the best solution but here's one that would never be approved: The home team has already chosen the course and will get the majority of the fans—what if the visiting team gets to set up the course?
Gary Van Sickle, SI Golf Contributor: Fatigue caused the blowout in France. Tiger was completely drained after his Tour Championship win. Several of his teammates finished near the bottom of that 30-man field, too, indicating the next week might not go well. And it didn't. I'm not sure you can blame any one factor for a blowout. Two years ago, Europe got caught between having lesser talent and its top players not carrying their weight.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: I hadn’t considered Wood’s point, but it’s interesting. I think blowouts come from a variety of factors that arrive at once, including everything Van Sickle just mentioned.
Both Luke Donald and Zach Johnson made captain’s picks that invite scrutiny. Justin Thomas on the U.S. side, and Nicolai Hojgaard for Europe could particularly be second-guessed depending on how they perform in Rome. Which captain helped their team the most with their six at-large picks?
Alex Miceli: Europe really needed the additional six to round out their team. Adding Shane Lowry and the wunderkind Ludvig Aberg is a big plus and makes their 12 their stronger team.
Keith Stewart: Zach Johnson “helped” his team the most. The U.S. side had three rookies qualify. Johnson needed to add Ryder Cup experience and his six selections have played in 14 Cups and possess an aggregate record of 26-21-11.
Gary Van Sickle: Adding Shane Lowry was also a gutsy move by Donald. The captains look at making pairings, not at who's hot, which is how the rest of us look at it. Johnson left talent on the bench so for that reason, I'll say Donald did a better job.
Len Hochberg: Maybe because I'm in the United States, but the vitriol seemed far greater over Thomas than Hojgaard (the Meronk household might disagree). I think both captains got it exactly right, or at least close enough to matter little. How's that for a non-answer?
Bob Harig: Johnson but only because Donald’s picks could be argued as more controversial. While Thomas was clearly a debate, Donald picked two players that will bring him scrutiny. Hojgaard and Ludvig Aberg have never played in a Ryder Cup. Aberg has never even competed in a major championship. For all their talents—and given the strong play of Adrian Meronk who was bypassed—those picks appear to be more of a risk.
Jeff Ritter: The most fascinating picks are Justin Thomas, chosen for his team fit and Ryder Cup track record, and Ludvig Aberg, who was picked for his current form and career momentum. I lean toward "advantage Europe" on the captain’s picks, but there’s a case to be made for each of the 12 players who were added.
The U.S. is attempting to end a 30-year drought in road contests. Traditionally they’ve been weakest in foursomes (alternate shot) What pairing combinations do you see that Captain Johnson might deploy to help reverse that trend?
Bob Harig: The format is actually more of a mixed bag for the United States. They went 6-2 at Whistling Straits and 2-6 at Le Golf National. The latter, a road Ryder Cup for the U.S., saw them lose all four matches on the first day. So, it’s not always been great but was better two years ago. The key? Players who have competed in the format together. That’s why Patrick Cantlay-Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler-Sam Burns and Justin Thomas-Jordan Spieth are obvious picks. Although Thomas-Spieth might be better served playing four-ball. But clearly you’ve got half the foursomes matches potentially decided.
Len Hochberg: The U.S. wasn't weak in foursomes two years ago. They got six of eight points. So I'd argue the trend has already been reversed, or at least blunted. Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffle won both their foursomes, and Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas also won a match. Going back to 2018, when the U.S. got only two of eight foursomes points, Spieth/Thomas won a match. So there are two proven pairings.
Jeff Ritter: Foursomes are a mixed bag for the U.S., but Spieth-Thomas, Schauffele-Cantlay and Scheffler-Burns seem natural. I also like the idea of Koepka-Clark.
Keith Stewart: Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele are 5-0-0 in international foursomes. Collin Morikawa is undefeated in Ryder Cup foursomes (2-0-0). Pair him with his Cal Bear buddy Max Homa and you have another very strong alternate shot pairing. Justin Thomas was selected to play with Jordan Spieth because they have a positive foursomes record (4-2-0) in international team play. The final foursomes pairing is the U.S. side’s secret weapon. Scottie Scheffler has never played Ryder Cup foursomes. Paired with Sam Burns, Scheffler’s ball striking, and Burns’s putter will become a killer combination for the red, white, and blue.
Alex Miceli: Foursomes are an odd format for the U.S., but lately they’ve been improving. Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas are a natural, Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns, should work as well. Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay have a good rapport.
Van Sickle: The Dustin Johnson-Koepka pairing will be tough—oops, DJ wasn't a pick. Well, Xander and Cantlay are obvious. Koepka and anybody—maybe Wyndham Clark?—is a good one. I'm not expecting Spieth-Thomas in alternate shot. Fowler is the utility infielder who can mesh with anyone. Scheffler and Sam Burns is another slam dunk.
Both teams with feature four Ryder Cup rookies, and in the SI Sportsbook you can bet on which one will earn the most points. The eight options: Europe’s Sepp Straka, Nicolai Hojgaard, Ludvig Aberg and Robert MacIntyre, and Max Homa, Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark and Brian Harman from the U.S. Who would be your bet from this group to earn the most points?
Alex Miceli: Brian Harman will play well, but not sure Zach Johnson will play him enough, so I’ll go with Aberg, who has won on the DP World Tour and has a fantastic game and demeanor.
Keith Stewart: Let’s just start with the fact these are bad bets. With little knowledge of pairings and the hillside these competitors will need to navigate over three straight days, few players will compete in five matches. If I had to pick a rookie to earn most points, Max Homa makes the most sense. His game allows for solid foursome and fourball pairings. Homa’s 4-0-0 record at the 2022 Presidents Cup also leads us to believe he will be leaned upon again.
Len Hochberg: I don't expect any of these guys to play more than three times. Under that scenario, I'd say Aberg, who could be paired twice with Viktor Hovland, who is playing better than anyone else. And by Sunday, Aberg could be feeling comfortable enough to snatch his singles match.
Gary Van Sickle: I'll jump on board the Ludvig Aberg Express. He's got talent, he's young—he might play all five matches. I could see him racking up three or four points. Brian Harman is a match-play assassin but he may play only three times. Harman would be my pick for best winning percentage.
Jeff Ritter: Give me the guy who’s won twice this year including the toughest major of the season: Wyndham Clark.
Bob Harig: Sepp Straka. He’s underrated. Just two weeks after winning the John Deere Classic, Straka was still a longshot at the British Open and managed to finish in the top five. Playing a home Ryder Cup will certainly help him.
You can also bet on which player from each team will earn the most points for his squad. Who are your picks for the U.S. and Europe for “Man of the Match.”
Bob Harig: Americans: Max Homa. After going 4-0 at the Presidents Cup, he brings it in his first Ryder Cup. Europeans: Jon Rahm. The Spaniard went 3-1-1 at Whistling Straits in a losing effort, finding his footing in the competition after a shaky start in 2018.
Len Hochberg: Brooks Koepka and Viktor Hovland, the two players most impervious to outside noise.
Alex Miceli: Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. No matter what Thomas says, he has something to prove, and McIlroy admitted he should have done more in Wisconsin, so he has some proving to do as well.
Gary Van Sickle: Not to be redundant over and over again repeatedly, but I like Aberg to be Europe's show-stopper. He's just got "it", whatever "it" is. Koepka plays his best golf on the biggest stages and this is one of the biggest. I expect him to take names.
Jeff Ritter: Rory has to be out for redemption after a disappointing performance two years ago at Whistling Straits. For the U.S., I think Xander Schauffele might continue to form an uncrackable pairing with Patrick Cantlay and then go on to win his singles match.
Keith Stewart: In the last five Ryder Cup matches only an average of 4.4 players have competed in five matches. Analytics have opened the door to a very conservative approach toward rolling out your “Rorys” five times. The U.S. team has been the most conservative, averaging only 1.6 players per Cup. The Europeans play five slightly more with 2.8 players going the full match amount over the same timeframe. McIlroy has played the most matches in that period, so he makes the most betting sense for the European side. For the U.S., I’ll agree with Ritter again and take Xander Schauffele.
There can only be one winner: Which side wins this Ryder Cup? And please give us a final score.
Len Hochberg: This should be closer than the past four Cups, going down to the wire late on Sunday. Europe will win, 15-13.
Bob Harig: It’s time a couple of trends ended. The U.S. 30-year drought in Europe as well as the lack of tight matches. Americans win 14 ½ to 13 1/2.
Gary Van Sickle: All the talk two years ago at Whistling Straits about how the Americans suddenly had a dynasty for the next decade? It suddenly got very quiet. I don't like that Scheffler isn't putting great and other than maybe Koepka, does the U.S. have a player that nobody on the European side wants to play? I don't see one. It's an even match, the home-continent advantage is the decider. Europe 15, U.S. 13.
Jeff Ritter: After Gleneagles 2014 I promised myself to never pick the U.S. on the road until I see them actually win one. But here we are: I just like the look of this U.S. team and think their “bottom four” players are much stronger than Europe’s. Europe also loses a lot with LIV golfers Ian Poulter, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson and Lee Westwood off the roster and away from the locker room. All streaks must come to an end, including 30 years of U.S. road losses. U.S. 16, Europe 12.
Alex Miceli: Europe 16 to 12.
Keith Stewart: The United States will break the 30-year streak and win in Rome. U.S. 15, Europe 13.