2023 Valero Texas Open: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for TPC San Antonio

Longshots have cashed Texas-sized tickets in recent years and our expert has his eyes on another.

Why do longshots win the Valero Texas Open? They most certainly do. Six of the last 10 winners at TPC San Antonio have had pre-tournament odds greater than +10000 (100-1)! Is there something about the course, the conditions, or the field of players which have allowed four of the last five winners to earn their first PGA Tour win? In my opinion, it is all the above. Let’s take a closer look at why this old-fashioned Texas rodeo crowns a winner we don’t expect.

The field of 144 players coming to the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio need to be prepared. To make the top 65 and ties and survive the cut line and then contend, it will take a very solid ball striking week. Ten men who plan to play in the Masters are competing alongside 24 of the top 100 in the Official World Golf Rankings. There’s an $8.9 million purse, a $1.6 million first-place check and a ticket to the Masters next week if you aren’t already in the field.

If you think that Masters invite is impossible, six of the last seven pre-Augusta week winners have earned that last-minute invitation.

Greg Norman designed the par-72 Oaks Course in 2010. One of the ten longest on the PGA Tour, the layout covers 7,438 yards. This parkland test features 64 bunkers and three holes where water comes into play. Fifteen of the 18 holes run north or south. That’s unique and important to note when you consider the windy conditions that usually blow up around San Antonio.

The flags should be busy again this week at windy TPC San Antonio :: Erik Williams/USA TODAY Sports

This week temperatures are predicted to run in the high 70s and low 80s. There’s a good chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. I doubt it will make much of a difference to the players. This region of Texas has witnessed drought conditions for almost a year. Water restrictions will have the conditions firm and fast. That’s significant considering the course bends off the tee in both directions. For Rounds 1, 2, and 4 the wind will approach from the south, Saturday it will come out of the northeast.

Remember the course runs almost entirely from north to south and vice versa. This means the players will face very few cross winds, which will help scoring. Over the last decade, the average winning score has been 13 under par. The average cutline in that time is two and a half strokes over par. That’s quite the difference when a winner finishes in the mid-teens and those who barely make the cut end up over par. That variance is part of the reason why this course has a lot of winner volatility.

It has been unseasonably warm for south Texas in February and March. As a result, the dormant Bermudagrass has been growing. It won’t affect fairway play, but the rough will become a tangled unpredictable mess of Rye overseed and swirling Bermuda. Tour players average well below average for greens in regulation on the Oaks Course, so this 2023 challenge won’t help.

Missing greens can be an issue around TPC San Antonio. Seventeen of the 18 have severe jagged-edged bunkers. The extreme edges can cause unlucky lies for even the best bunker players, which is another reason why luck can be a big factor in winning. The approach game needed for Valero leans toward the wedge or scoring end of the spectrum. Long-iron skill separates the best in the world. Most of these guys are great wedge players and therefore can contend.

It doesn’t take a long player to win. Length can be an advantage if you hit the fairway. I already mentioned the rough, but 12 of the 14 driver holes bend off the tee. Forcing strategic play is another reason why this week favors the entire field. Get hot with your wedge game and you’re going to be in the mix. Each of the strokes gained categories are even except for approach. Putting, off the tee, and around the green are needed and another reason why our winner options are wide open.

To summarize in the simplest way, the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is going to be dry and cause random bounces. With two types of grass in the rough and completely unpredictable bunker lies awaiting, a bit of luck will be needed. Patience and acceptance will keep your mind focused instead of flustered. J.J. Spaun emerged victorious last year by ballstriking better than the top 5. Throw in the fact our winner could go play Augusta National next week and even the final qualifiers get motivated to try their very best.

The most engaging part of this entire narrative is the opportunity that awaits. One player’s life will change forever. Not just because he will win a new pair of boots, but rather for all the reasons listed above and more.

Win: Ben Martin

Ben Martin has made five cuts in a row and finished with two top 10s in those starts. His ballstriking has been trending, gaining over six strokes against the field in that span. Last week, he was eighth in Puntacana and when you consider the skills needed to excel at the Oaks, he has it covered. The approach game is accurate, and he finds the fairway. A great par-4 player, his short game and sand play are both capable of contending. If you consider many of the players near his odds, he is the best all-around player. Take Martin +7500 (SI Sportsbook) or higher depending on his closing odds Wednesday to win the Valero Texas Open.

Last week's pick: Max Homa advanced out of his group at the WGC-Match Play but went out in the first knockout round.

Place: Tyler Duncan

My placement pick was also one of my outright selections for Read The Line. Tyler Duncan has been playing difficult courses well in 2023. Third place at the Honda Classic and third last week in Puntacana, he contends in difficult conditions because he is such a great driver. He’s gained over five strokes against the field in his last five starts and has plus odds to finish in the top 40. Take Tyler Duncan to finish top 40 (+145 FanDuel).

Last week's pick: Winner! Our man liked Scottie Scheffler at +225 to make the Match Play final four, which he did—and finished fourth.

Showdown: Rickie Fowler over Tyrrell Hatton

Rickie Fowler has been trending for months. He just defeated Jon Rahm head-to-head in Austin. Tyrrell Hatton had a first-round tweak of his right hand and went 0-3 at the WGC-Dell Match Play. I believe Hatton won’t push with a ticket to Augusta already punched, so look for him to take it easy and Fowler to go full steam ahead and try and win for a trip down Magnolia Lane. Take Fowler over Hatton (+134 FanDuel). 

Last week's pick: Tom Hoge not only didn't win his first match as our showdown pick, he didn't win any matches in Austin.

Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook

Tyrrell Hatton +1200

Rickie Fowler +1800

Corey Conners +2000

Si Woo Kim +2000

Davis Riley +2200

Hideki Matsuyama +2500

Taylor Montgomery +2500

Chris Kirk +2800

Matt Kuchar +2800

J.J. Spaun +3300

Alex Noren +4000

Ben Griffin +4000

Cam Davis +4000

Matt Wallace +4000

Ryan Fox +4000