A's Prospect Brett Harris Has Eye-Popping Stat in First Week of Arizona Fall League
Each fall as the MLB playoffs get underway, there are a group of prospects from each team that heads to Arizona to compete in the six week long Arizona Fall League. There are six teams in the league, and each team has prospects from five different affiliates. For the A's, their Arizona team is the Mesa Solar Sox, and the team is comprised of prospects from the Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, and New York Yankees.
This year pitchers Stevie Emanuels, Jack Perkins (A's #19 on MLB Pipeline), Royber Salinas (#24), Yunior Tur, and Jack Weisenburger are representing the A's, and on the position player side there is third baseman Brett Harris (#10), shortstop Max Muncy (#7), and outfielder Lazaro Armenteros.
The reason that players are chosen for the AFL can vary, but typically we see it used as a way for minor leaguers that have missed some time over the course of the regular season to get some extra innings or at-bats before heading home for the winter. Another reason it can be used is to more or less showcase players that will become Rule 5 eligible in the coming weeks with the hope of swinging a trade for that player instead of potentially losing them in the Rule 5 Draft in December.
One player that fits that bill from this year's representatives looks to be Armenteros (a.k.a. Lazarito), who showed big improvements in Double-A this season, but may not quite be ready for a 40-man spot with his 33% strikeout rate.
Last season saw Lawrence Butler really burst onto the scene in the AFL by showing off his improved approach at the plate, walking as much as he struck out, stealing six bags in seven tries, and knocking a couple of homers while driving in 16. He built on that performance during Spring Training, opening even more eyes, and ultimately made his MLB debut in August.
Today the focus is on Harris, who may very well be the A's third baseman at some point in 2024. The 25-year-old has made a number of highlight reel defensive plays in his time in the minor leagues and has been on a steady climb towards the big leagues since being drafted back in 2021. The seventh rounder out of Gonzaga hit .279 this season with a .383 on-base percentage (OBP), hit nine homers, stole ten bags, and made the jump to Triple-A back in July, getting into 36 games. He could be ready for the next jump before long.
In the first week of AFL action he has two stats that really jump out. The first one is pretty straightforward: He has seven walks and just one strikeout in three games played, giving him a .643 OBP. That's part of the reason he has five runs scored while going 2-for-7.
In Double-A this season (69 games), Harris had a 12.7% walk rate mixed with a 13.4% strikeout rate, so he has had a good eye at the dish, but a seven to one ratio is incredibly impressive.
The other stat that jumps out is that he has four stolen bases already. Pipeline gives him a run grade of 50 on the 20-80 scouting scale, so he's an above-average runner, but given that he tallied ten the entire 2023 season and his career-high is 11, to have four in a week is eye opening.
I did a little digging into the box scores to find out what was going on.
The first two bags he stole came on Tuesday against the Salt River Rafters. The first came with 23-year-old Detroit Tigers prospect Dylan Smith on the mound after Harris had drawn a walk in the first inning. During the regular season, runners were successful 13 out of 14 times against Smith. Behind the dish was Colorado Rockies catching prospect Drew Romo, who struggled against the running game all season, allowing 100 stolen bases in 124 attempts. That's a success rate of 80.6% for the runner. Put the two together, and the chances of the running game being an issue for the duo were apparent.
So that was one stolen base.
After singling in the third, Harris walked again in the fifth with Alessandro Ercolani (Pirates) on the mound. Ercolani walked the next batter, Benjamin Cowles, as well. Harris and Cowles took off and swiped second and third on a double steal, with Romo still behind the dish.
On Friday, again playing Salt River, Harris swiped bags three and four. This time it was with Concord native Carter Bins behind the plate. In 31 games behind the dish, Bins caught four of 13 base stealers this season, but in 2022 the runner was successful 86.8% of the time in 83 attempts.
After drawing his third walk of the game, Harris was on first in the top of the 8th with Cameron Junker on the bump. The 26-year-old Pirates reliever has tallied 170 minor league innings and just 23 stolen base attempts against him. The runner was successful 17 times, or 74%. That's right about the break-even point when deciding whether or not to go. Harris decided to test Carter Bins and it paid off.
His final stolen base came an inning later, this time with 24-year-old Diamondbacks' righty Austin Pope on the mound. Runners were 3-for-6 against Pope this season. Harris got his walk and came around to score on a fielding error. He finished the day 0-for-1 with four walks, a run scored, and two stolen bases.
The stolen base number catches your attention, but looking under the hood a little bit, it appears as though Harris could be acting a little more aggressive on the bases, but he's also not facing MLB caliber backstops, either. Harris may be looking for the right situation and picking his spots (correctly) more than having a green light like Esteury Ruiz. Knowing when to go is still a great skill to have.
If the stolen base numbers keep up, however, it'll be an added tool to watch out for in an already crowded tool box.