Astros Projected to Bury Texas Rangers in AL West
The Texas Rangers got the best of the Houston Astros when it mattered most in 2023, but that apparently means nothing in 2024.
The defending World Series champions are still playing second fiddle to their instate rivals, at least according to 2024 projected standings supplied by PECOTA at Baseball Prospectus. MLB.com used those projections to inform five surprising storylines for the upcoming season.
The Rangers made the list, though not necessarily in a good way. The projection is that Texas will win about 86 games, finishing nine games behind the Astros in the American League West. Per MLB.com:
It’s not that surprising that the Texas Rangers are projected for "only" 86 wins, because they won 90 last year with a lot of things going right, and so far this winter they’ve subtracted Mitch Garver, Aroldis Chapman and Jordan Montgomery while possibly having Corey Seager limited by injury. It’s that they’re this far behind the Astros, because Texas' lineup looks absolutely loaded, especially with young outfielders Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford around for most or all of the season, and it should get some all-time great starting pitchers returning from injury as the season goes on.
The Rangers are expected to get Cy Young winners Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom back for the stretch run, as well as free-agent signee Tyler Mahle. Whether the defending champs are in striking distance of Houston when that happens is another question.
The Astros did win the AL West last season and have been to the ALCS for the last seven years. And a pitching strength for Houston this season could also be a weakness for the Rangers.
On the other hand, the Astros added Josh Hader to a pretty good bullpen, and the Rangers lost Chapman – and maybe wildly overworked José Leclerc in the playoff push – from what was already a thin group. FanGraphs ranks their relievers 24th. We’ll take the under on a gap of nine, but bullpens are an easy place to either overperform or underperform. Maybe this one does make sense.
The Rangers should get a better gauge of their arms during spring training, with pitchers and catchers scheduled to report Feb. 14.
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