Yankees' American League East Hopes Are Still Alive Despite Padres Gut Punch

The New York Yankees still have a shot at the American League East, even with an ugly series loss to the Padres.

New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole allowed four home runs in Sunday's loss to the San Diego Padres. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Gerrit Cole giving up four home runs against the San Diego Padres on Sunday felt like a blow to the New York Yankees' hopes of winning the American League East. It also didn't help that the offense was listless afterward, giving their ace little support despite a seven-inning effort that had blemishes.

The Yankees did stage a late comeback, but Padres games are essentially eight-inning affairs if games are close. They deployed Mason Miller, essentially shutting the door on any comeback. It was easy to feel a little disenchanted for anyone hoping the division would be within reach.

Then, over in Arlington, Texas, the Rangers beat the Tampa Bay Rays 8-6 on Sunday. The glass-half-full approach to that result is that the Yankees remained four games back — with a tiebreaker technically making it five. Another look at it is that the Yankees failed to make any ground in the division with one of their big guns on the mound.

According to FanGraphs, the Yankees currently have a 15.4% chance of winning the division as of Labor Day, and every loss has it feeling like their chances of overtaking the AL East are getting slimmer and slimmer. Realistically, it probably won't happen, but just taking a glance at another glass-half-full look at their division hopes, the schedule does favor Aaron Boone's squad in the off chance they do make a comeback.

An optimistic look at the division: A favorable schedule for the Yankees

The upcoming series for the Yankees include the Colorado Rockies, the New York Mets — who have been better of late —, the slump-busting Minnesota Twins, a tougher series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, their final series against the Rays, which could decide the division, and then the Baltimore Orioles. The Rays, on the other hand, have a tougher go of things.

The New York Yankees will see the New York Mets later this week in another installment of the Subway Series. The Yankees can't afford to drop any games to their rival as they pursue a division title. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Rays have a challenging series with the Atlanta Braves coming up. That will be followed by Houston coming to Tampa, the Athletics, the Boston Red Sox, the important Yankee series, and then the Philadelphia Phillies.

Looking at the short-term outlook, the next three days could be huge in deciding which way the division swings. One of the more realistic scenarios is that the Yankees sweep and the Rays drop two out of three to Atlanta. That would put the Yankees just two games out in the AL East.

In the long term, that final series between the Yankees and Rays is talked about as one that will decide the division, and, depending on where both teams are, one of them can pull away. However, what's not mentioned enough is both of their final series.

The Rays will face a tough Phillies team looking to fulfill their own divisional aspirations, and the Yankees will face an Orioles squad on their own Wild Card hunt, but are currently four games out.

By the time the Yankees play the Orioles, their postseason hopes may essentially be on ice. It isn't to say that it will be an easy one for the Yankees, of course. New York lore has seen some tough losses over the years, with playing spoiler. That final Mets-Marlins series in 2007 comes to mind. The Mets and Marlins were an example again last year.

Granted, those series decided the Mets' seasons. The Yankees will still make the playoffs, but winning the division is the difference between facing another tough Wild Card matchup with the Red Sox and getting a bye altogether. They'll bypass that initial round and then have a chance to sit back and decide their rotational matchups depending on who makes it out of a potential series between the Rays and Sox.

If the playoffs started today, the New York Yankees would face the Boston Red Sox, making for a tough matchup in their long-storied rivalry. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The last two American League teams to win the division reached the World Series. Last year it was the Blue Jays. Before that, it was the Yankees themselves. Considering that the bye has played a big part in teams navigating the postseason more easily, winning the division should still be paramount for the Yankees.

There's still an outside chance that happens with this schedule. They just can't let any of these teams play spoiler in these final weeks.

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