Skip to main content

Key Questions For Each Western Conference Finals Contender

Breaking down questions for each Western Conference contender if the season resumes.

The race for the Western Conference crown remains fascinating even as the NBA’s coronavirus suspension rolls into its third week. LeBron James and the Lakers are the likely favorites, though they are far from a lock to win three straight rounds against a stacked Western Conference. A conference finals against the Clippers looms, and Kawhi Leonard and Co. are a downright terrifying matchup for the Lakers. Denver and Utah have plausible–though unlikely–paths to the Finals.

The Rockets remain a great wild card. Houston could see an early exit in the first round, with potential changes to the front office and coaching staff potentially following. But the James Harden-Russell Westbrook combo remains terrifying, regardless of each player’s shortcomings. Counting the small-ball Rockets out of the Finals picture feels a touch disrespectful.

After four years of Warriors dominance, the Western Conference is (relatively) wide open. LeBron is the favorite for a 10th Finals appearance, though nothing is guaranteed. Let’s roll through the key question for each Western Conference contender.

Los Angeles Lakers – Is LeBron Ready to Roll?

A year without a playoff run appeared to work wonders on LeBron James as he rolled through the pre-suspension portion of 2019-20. James effectively played point guard and led the league in assists, and his defensive effort increased sharply compared to last season. Adding Anthony Davis certainly helped. James looked refreshed, entering mid-March on cruise control.

Will the same James emerge after the coronavirus suspension? There’s little reason to doubt The King. He now has three-plus months to train and prepare his body for a playoff sprint, and it’s a safe bet James will be in peak condition when the Lakers need to flip the playoff switch. This doesn’t guarantee the Finals, of course. There are still questions surrounding the Lakers’ veteran collection of cast-offs. Los Angeles is a ball handler short when James sits. Still, LeBron remains near the peak of his powers, and Davis is his best teammate since 2010-11 Wade. If James is healthy and thriving in June through August, the Lakers remain the favorite to win the Western Conference.

Los Angeles Clippers – Can the Bigs Survive?

Kawhi Leonard should be confident entering a playoff series against LeBron James, armed with two Finals MVPs after a heroic run with Toronto. Yet even if Leonard outduels James, the Lakers could still win the crosstown rivalry on the back of Anthony Davis. The former No. 1 pick has an argument as a top five player in the league. He may be the NBA’s best defender. Can the Clippers really keep Davis from swinging the series?

Doc Rivers may have to get creative. Ivica Zubac is more a complimentary piece than an answer on Davis. Montrezl Harrell is a bit small, though he fights valiantly. Marcus Morris may spend minutes on James. Ultimately, the Clippers will have to throw a slew of bodies at Davis and hope to contain him. Davis will likely erupt for 40 once or twice. But keep him off the foul line and limit his second chances, and the Clippers can live with Davis leading Los Angeles in points throughout a seven-game series. Devoting resources to slowing James is the lesser of two evils.

Denver Nuggets – Where’s Jokic’s Help?

It’s only a 14-game sample, but there’s reason to trust Nikola Jokic’s playoff chops. He scored 43 points in Game 6 against San Antonio in the first round of the 2019 playoffs, and he then added a triple-double in Game 7. Jokic averaged 27 points and 13.9 boards in the next series against Portland, and nearly carried Denver in a shootout against Damian Lillard. Jokic isn’t exactly a physical specimen. But let his doughy persona fail you.

Yet unless Jokic morphs into 2001 Shaq, a one-man show starring a center is no way to make a run at the Finals. Jokic will need some help. And there’s no All-Star running mate immediately available. Will Barton and Paul Millsap are complimentary scorers. Gary Harris’ play has cratered. Jamal Murray is the best bet, but his shaky 2019 playoffs doesn’t inspire a huge amount of confidence. Perhaps the Canadian guard makes a leap. Otherwise, it will be another exit for the Nuggets before the conference finals.

Utah Jazz – Is the Backcourt Enough?

Donovan Mitchell is an impressive young player, but he remains a significant step below the top tier of leading men in a respective playoff series. He’s been bested by James Harden in back-to-back playoffs, and it’s hard to see him going toe-to-toe with LeBron James or Kawhi Leonard. Utah can’t make the Finals with Mitchell as the only reliable playmaker.

The Jazz have taken multiple swings at filling the void alongside Mitchell. They traded for Mike Conley in June 2019, and they acquired Jordan Clarkson in December 2019. The latter move has at times looked far more impactful, a stunning development. Conley has yet to find his footing in Utah. He’s shooting a dismal 40.5% from the field. The artful dance he had with Marc Gasol is not as smooth with Rudy Gobert. Clarkson’s shot selection is suspect, but he can light up the scoreboard in a hurry. Utah will need both Mitchell and one of its two point guards to be at their best to sniff the Finals.

Oklahoma City Thunder – Can the Three Guards Dominate?

Oklahoma City remains the largest longshot of this group, and even winning one round would be a major accomplishment considering the doom-and-gloom that followed the Russell Westbrook trade. Chris Paul has revived his career and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the real deal. Billy Donavan is a legitimate Coach of the Year candidate. Sam Presti deserves major credit for the way he has salvaged what could have been an ugly situation. So how can the Thunder even dream of making the Finals? Paul and SGA need to lead the way.

Oklahoma City has thrived this season on the back of its three-guard lineups featuring Paul, Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder. The trio is outscoring teams by a whopping 28.6 points per 100 possessions in 2019-20, and the Thunder are among the most efficient clutch offenses in the league. Schroder has been a downright revelation, with his strong season even more surprising than that of Gilgeous-Alexander and Paul. Donavan needs a miracle to reach the Finals. He might as well ride the lineup that got him this far.

Houston Rockets – Which Harden Emerges?

It’s hard for the NBA’s leading scorer to be a second fiddle, but that’s exactly what James Harden was for much of the last two months before the COVID-19 hiatus. Russell Westbrook took the reins for Houston after the calendar turned to 2020, thriving as the Rockets dumped Clint Capela for Robert Covington. The move didn’t have the same impact on Harden. He seemed to miss an active rim-rolling presence, and he shot just 31% from three after Jan. 1. Houston still posted a solid record as Westbrook turned back the clock, but the Finals isn’t in the cards if Harden isn’t dominating defenses.

It’s not as though a sudden surge from Harden is out of the picture. He can snap out of a slump in an instant, and one 40-point game can lead to a spurt of dominant performances. We saw Harden rip off 11 40-point performances in his first 25 games this season. Westbrook has been dominant of late, but Houston’s path to the Finals is still through Harden re-asserting himself as the game’s most dominant offensive force.

Dallas Mavericks – Can MVP Luka Arrive?

The Mavericks stand only slightly ahead of the Thunder as Finals longshots. They currently sit No. 7 in the Western Conference, and seeding aside, there doesn’t seem to be a sufficient stockpile of talent to survive three playoff series. Kristaps Porzingis is a tremendous modern big, but he’s not a focal point in Dallas. It will take a 2007 LeBron style performance from Luka Doncic for the Mavericks to return to the Finals.

Perhaps the precocious Doncic has a heroic run in him. He’s gone toe-to-toe with LeBron and Harden this season, and his late-game chops have been proven time and again through nearly two seasons. But it’s time to pump the breaks. Barring a historic run, Doncic and the Mavericks are likely to fall short of the Finals in Year One of the Porzingis partnership.