Mavs Desperately Need Tim Hardaway Jr. to Break Out of Career-Worst Slump
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After pulling off a surprise run to the Western Conference Finals, the Dallas Mavericks needed to improve the roster to get over the hump. Instead, they lost Jalen Brunson, and the plan to replace his production hasn't produced favorable results early on.
Brunson is averaging 21.8 points and 6.7 assists with the New York Knicks, and the Mavs sorely miss his production. Meanwhile, for whatever reasons, the team is still not fully utilizing Christian Wood while Tim Hardaway Jr. has been in a career-worst slump.
“[Tim Hardaway Jr.] being healthy is sort of like getting a free agent," Mavs GM Nico Harrison said during the Las Vegas Summer League.
The early results for Hardaway have been concerning, given that he was considered integral in the plan to replace Jalen Brunson's scoring He's averaging only 10.5 points per game while shooting 31.4 percent from the floor and 29.2 percent from 3-point range — both career-worsts.
Hardaway's production has continued to worsen as opposed to improve as he finds his rhythm after coming back from an extended absence. During the Mavs' four-game losing streak, he shot 5-29 from the floor (17.2 percent) and 2-19 (10.5 percent) in 20.3 minutes per game.
With the lack of impact that Hardaway provides defensively, he's arguably among the NBA's most unplayable players right now. If his shot isn't falling, especially at the rate that it's been as of late, there isn't much to work with. He's shooting 32.1 percent on wide-open 3s. Among players with at least 50 attempts, Reggie Bullock (27.9 percent) and Hardaway are in the bottom five in efficiency with Bullock being the league's worst.
“I feel like I’m getting there a little bit,” Hardaway said earlier this month. “But at the same time it’s a process. I’m just happy that we got the victory; happy that my guys trust me to be out there at the end of the game.”
With Bullock sidelined for rest in their 124-115 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday, the Mavs started Hardaway in his place. It appeared to be a great chance for him to turn things around a bit and make some big plays. However, it proved to be a bad outing as he finished with six points on 2-6 shooting from the floor
Hardaway began even hesitating on some open looks that he otherwise has been aggressive in his career. On quite a few of his misses on wide open shots, the Bucks weren't even bothering to give the appearance of a potential closeout. They were more than satisfied with letting him shoot.
A few weeks ago, Hardaway was questioning his own shooting mechanics — expressing that he feels he's jumping "a little too high" on his shot. Things have only continued to struggle since that self-diagnosis.
“I think I’m just jumping a little too high on my shot,” Hardaway said. “I think I’m just so amped to be back out there that I’m jumping so high when I don’t really need to.
“So I’ve been watching film on that constantly, just trying to get my rhythm back. But most importantly my guys are feeding me the rock and telling me to shoot when open, no hesitation. That’s all you can ask for, that trust from your teammates.”
It goes well beyond perimeter shooting when evaluating the pitfalls of Hardaway's contributions, or lack thereof. The nature of his skill-set is to try to make tough plays and these can be "boom or bust" in nature. However, when open shots aren't dropping at a high clip, plays of doing too much without an advantage leading to misses or turnovers prove frustrating.
The Mavs faced a 13-5 deficit early in their loss to the Bucks. With Luka Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie on the court, Hardaway decided to take matters into his own hands after initiating the possession. He uses a ball screen from Dorian Finney-Smith to create a clean opportunity to attack baseline, but instead, Giannis Antetokounmpo makes a well-timed help rotation given he can leave Dwight Powell. This drive stood no chance.
Another play occurred early in the game that featured Hardaway making a costly mistake — resulting in points on the other end. He was ran off the line by a closeout in the corner, prompting him to drive baseline. He thought that a pass to the top of the 3-point line would be there, but Antetokounmpo jumped the passing lane and got a dunk on the other end.
The Mavs ran an inbounds play that featured Hardaway being deployed in an off-ball screening action. He was engaged by a defender on the catch without the air space to get a clean shot off on the catch. He ultimately still chooses to shoot and hits the side of the backboard.
Hardaway, like the other struggling Mavs shooters, will see positive regression toward the mean on their shooting results at some point. Given how the team's construction relies on these shots falling at a high clip, it's no surprise the team finds themselves 9-10 amid a slump.
To make matters worse, Hardaway is producing very poorly on drives right now. He has the worst field goal percentage on drives (25.0 percent) among all 194 players that have attempted at least 20 shot attempts derived from a drive this season. He also has as many turnovers (two) as assists and has generated six free throw attempts. If his jumper isn't falling, there isn't a way for him to make up for it.
The key point that seems to get lost with players that go through slumps is that when shots do start falling, the prior lack of production shouldn't become acceptable in hindsight. Shooting at or around 40 percent on a team with elite playmaking shoot be an expectation. It should be considered as if you or me does their job on a daily basis, not something that when achieved, washes away a sample size of over 20 games of just poor play.
Why is it acceptable for Reggie Bullock to finish last season converting at a 36.0 percent clip from deep when he's receiving some of the easiest looks a shooter will find in the NBA courtesy of Doncic? He should be much closer to 42 percent or higher, much like other shooters on the team. The same applies for Hardaway.
How many playoff matchups will feature opponents stubborn enough to deploy drop coverage and sag off shooters like the Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns did during the Mavs' path to the Western Conference Finals? Living and dying by the 3-point line is difficult as it is — not having the benefit of that type of opponent will make it all the more challenging for a team that is limited on creators surrounded by non-elite shooters.
Top shooters may go through rough patches, but it's clear that the Mavs lack the caliber of shooters they need to thrive playing their current style and have it translate to a title run. When some of those shooters also tend to be negative defenders, it becomes all the more damaging. With a non-elite defense and already overburdening the team's initiators, the flaws of an underwhelming roster construction are on full display.
The Mavs, who have lost four straight games and fallen to 9-10 on the season, desperately need Hardaway to figure things out if they’re going to be as good as they can be. Not only would his improved shooting help the team on the court, but it would improve his status as a trade asset as well.
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