NFL Week 3 Point Totals: With High Numbers, Are Unders the Way to Go?
If you like scoring, Week 3 might be the most exciting of the 2018 NFL season to date. That is because sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com have four games on the betting board with OVER/UNDER totals sitting at 53 points or higher, including two primetime matchups on Sunday and Monday night.
But are the numbers high enough considering the teams involved, or is there more value in going UNDER these totals?
For example, the New Orleans Saints (1-1) have seen two dramatically different results in their first two games, losing 48-40 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home in Week 1 when the total closed at 49.5 and then winning 21-18 over the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 when the total was even higher at 51.
This Sunday, the Saints visit the Atlanta Falcons (1-1) in an NFC South matchup that has a total between 53 and 54. The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last nine visits to Atlanta for New Orleans, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. In addition, the UNDER has cashed in eight of nine overall for the Falcons, so proceed with caution here and consider those trends before betting.
The highest total on the board is 56 in a Sunday game between the San Francisco 49ers (1-1) and Kansas City Chiefs (2-0), who are leading the NFL in scoring with 40 points per game. The transition to second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes could not have been much easier for Kansas City head coach Andy Reid, as he has already thrown 10 touchdown passes through the first two games, setting a league record.
San Francisco's last three trips to Arrowhead Stadium have gone OVER the total, and it is hard to imagine this one finishing under 60 points. This OVER is your best bet in Week 3.
Later on Sunday Night Football, the New England Patriots (1-1) will visit the Detroit Lions (0-2). The Patriots will see a familiar face in former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who is now the head coach of the Lions. After his team has already given up an NFL-high 78 points, Patricia cannot be embarrassed any more than he has, can he?
With a total of 53, this is another one that could dip UNDER, as six of New England's last eight on the road versus teams with losing records have followed that exact trend.
Finally, the Monday Night Football matchup will see the high-scoring Buccaneers (2-0) host the disappointing Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1-1) to close out Week 3 action.
Tampa Bay only scored 27 points in a home victory against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2 after their outburst versus the Saints in the season opener. The Bucs still went OVER the total for the second time in as many weeks, but the UNDER is 9-3 in their last 12 home games, averaging a little more than 36 points. With a total of 54, they may be hard-pressed to get over that number with the Steelers.
