NFL Division Playoffs Preview: SI’s Predictions for the AFC and NFC Championship Games

A closer look at this weekend’s games, including which quarterback plays the best in the clutch, x-factors and the team with the best chance to pull the upset.

Welcome to the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Sports Illustrated reporters will be dotted throughout the continental United States providing game coverage and digging in depth for quality stories as we march toward Super Bowl LVII in Phoenix.

In this space, we’ll take some time to consider a few pressing questions about this weekend’s slate, who might impress and whom we might be overlooking. While we didn’t see that many surprises in terms of star power during wild-card weekend, the edges for each team get thinner and thinner as we go. That means bigger performances from bigger names, or breakout performances from people we may not know.

I’ll be joined by senior writers Michael Rosenberg and Greg Bishop, who are kind enough to provide their expertise from more collective NFL seasons combined than I have years (just kidding … almost).

Prescott was outstanding against the Buccaneers throwing for four touchdowns and 305 yards :: Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports

The player we'll be talking about after this weekend?

Conor Orr: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. I feel like he’s the Ringo Starr of the group right now and for no good reason. Aiyuk has been doing the dirty work on the blocking front and seems to be helping Brock Purdy on some first-down-generating throws. He’s just as fast and physical as the rest of San Francisco’s weapons, but he might just be a little further down in the progression. If Dallas sticks a dominant cover corner such as Trevon Diggs on Deebo Samuel, we could be looking at a bigger opportunity for the former first-round pick.

Michael Rosenberg: Daniel Jones, QB, Giants. I’m not saying he will lead New York to a win over Philly, though that’s possible. But he will continue to show people he can be a franchise quarterback for the right franchise. I think all the silly Eli Manning facial comparisons and goofy Dave Gettleman quotes created a perception that Jones’s ceiling is a poor man’s Eli—which, in today’s game, is not what any fan base desires. But Jones is a different kind of player. This is a very good passer who ran for 708 yards this season. His career average per rush of 5.8 is the same as Kyler Murray’s, and they are basically the same age. He is a weapon, and his teammates and coaches have always sworn by him. Jones had to cut down on turnovers, which he has, and continues to improve under proper coaching, which he is finally getting. But the Giants have a good one here, and he will show it against the Eagles.

Greg Bishop: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys. He ranks among the most fascinating players in these playoffs. I personally think people are too hard on him in general, but he has struggled at times this season, especially with forcing passes into coverage and his tally of interceptions. That said, he looked awesome against Tampa Bay. And, if Dallas is going to topple San Francisco in another road game, the Cowboys will need to score—and not a small amount of points—against what, for my money, is the NFL’s best defense. It’s possible to see how that upset happens, no? Say Dan Quinn cooks up another great game plan. Dak balls out once more. Purdy records a couple of turnovers. I wouldn’t bet on it, but either way, how Dak does will be discussed, endlessly.

What will be the biggest x-factor this weekend?

Orr: Purdy. Here’s the one thing we’re glossing over from last weekend: Purdy looked and played uncomfortably in the early going against the Seahawks. While this is totally natural, we saw it take a bit of time for him to work his way back into the flow of a game. If Purdy starts slowly against the Cowboys, Dallas could climb to a 10-point lead in no time. That’s a different set of circumstances for a team that can strike quickly but prefers to lead from the front of the pack.

Rosenberg: Jalen Hurts’s health. We are accustomed to NFL players playing through injuries that would keep many of us in bed until 2025, but an injury to the throwing shoulder of a starting quarterback is a big deal. Yes, Hurts came back in the season finale against the Giants and has had two more weeks to get healthy. But he was hardly great in that game (20-of-35, 229 yards, INT), and neither was the Eagles’ offense. If the Giants had anything at stake and played Daniel Jones at quarterback, they might have won. The prelude to the greatest victory in Giants franchise history was their ’07 season finale against New England, when they lost but realized they could play with the undefeated Patriots. They beat New England in the Super Bowl a few weeks later. If Hurts is considerably less than his best self, the Giants could once again upset a juggernaut that beat them in the last game of the regular season. But if he is healthy, the Eagles should advance.

Bishop: Buffalo’s emotional roller-coaster season. I’m not a huge x-factor guy in general. The beauty of football is that there are a million things that go into every play, not to mention every game. They’re all x-factors, because the sport is that complex. But when I look at the four matchups, the one I’m most curious about is Bills-Bengals. Two great teams. Best game of the weekend. But I wonder whether the Bills can handle the emotional heft of what they’re living through. I mean, just think about their season so far: storms, Josh Allen’s health and, of course, Damar Hamlin. The sports cliché would be that the Bills are steeled for what’s ahead. But I do think there’s a corresponding element in play, especially against a formidable team for a divisional-round game. Maybe it’s all just too much, what they’ve overcome. If they can handle it, I like them to not only beat Cincinnati but to play in Super Bowl LVII.

The team with the best chance to pull the upset?

Orr: Giants. We don’t 100 percent know what is going on with Hurts’s shoulder. Plus, the Eagles have taken everyone’s best shot all season. This is going to be a matchup against a team that excels at slowing the game down and making life complicated. Plus, they have the most powerful weapon working in their favor: absolutely no expectations. You can take a cold, distant viewpoint on this if you want, but I think there is something very powerful about playing with house money and not having to deal with any of the expectations we commonly place on a top seed. If some fluky fumble happens in the first five minutes of the game and the Giants go up 10–0 or 14–0, who knows what could happen?

Rosenberg: Cowboys. Dallas is the only underdog that can look across the field and honestly say, “We’re as talented as you guys, and our quarterback has accomplished more.” The Bengals and Joe Burrow are great, but the Bills are a more complete team, and Allen is at least on Burrow’s level. The Giants don’t have as much depth as Philly. The Jaguars aren't yet on Kansas City’s level.

But Dallas has the balance offensively to make plays against the Niners’ best-in-the-league defense. CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz are matchup problems for anyone. It is very possible that Purdy is the franchise quarterback he has appeared to be for the past month, but let’s see how he does when Micah Parsons is sprinting toward him in the fourth quarter of a playoff game.

Bishop: I’d lean toward chalk overall here. But if I had to pick the most likely upset winner, to me, it’s the New York Football Giants. I love what Brian Daboll has done with that offense. And, if I were rooting for the Eagles, I would be legitimately curious, if not full-blown concerned, with how Hurts will play after the long layoff. I’m sure Hurts has prepared. I know his history suggests that overcoming things won’t be an obstacle. And, yet, there’s timing to consider here, both with his receivers and with how the Eagles have played in his absence. So while Hurts put together an MVP-caliber season, I wonder whether the timing of his injury won’t doom a team that looked like the Super Bowl favorite a month ago.

The quarterback you’d want with the ball in the final two minutes to advance to the championship game?

Burrow has been one of the best quarterbacks at making the spectacular play during this career :: Albert Cesare/The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK

Orr: If former quarterback Doug Pederson isn’t an acceptable answer, I’ll go with Burrow. Everyone knows Patrick Mahomes is the best and most accomplished passer remaining in the playoffs, but I think Burrow handles the moments when a defense takes away what he does best slightly better. We’re also seeing his situational athleticism coming into play more frequently, making him a more dangerous third-down threat.

Rosenberg: Burrow. I have written that Mahomes is clearly the MVP and the best player in the league, and I meant it. He plays quarterback like nobody in the history of the sport. But with two minutes on the line, the calculation changes just a bit.

Teams tend to play more conservatively defensively. Offenses don’t need the spectacular play as much as they need precision, poise and taking what is there. Burrow is the best in the NFL at that right now. He has the best fourth-quarter passer rating in the NFL, which is not surprising. He stays calm and confident, and he learns so much about the defense on each possession that by the end of the game, he solves the puzzle.

Bishop: I mean, come on! I’d say this: Betting against Mahomes is futile. Betting against Mahomes is especially futile in a season in which he is playing at a higher level compared to recent years. Has everyone forgotten the Super Bowl title? Would it exist without third-and-15? Mahomes can make more throws than the other quarterbacks. He can escape better. He has won the games we’re talking about here (and lost them, too, but I wouldn’t pin that on him). So, no, it’s obvious. Patrick. Freaking. Mahomes. Come on, people!

Give me your championship-game matchups?

Orr: 49ers-Eagles and Chiefs-Bengals. Part of me really, really wants to pick the Giants here given that they’re just riding one of those heaters at the moment, but Philadelphia’s skill-position talent is just insurmountable. At least it seems that way from where I’m sitting. The choice between the Bills and Bengals is starting to trend toward Cincinnati, at least from what I’m seeing, though we’re all falling into the trap that I predicted we would at the beginning of the season. The Bills are so good. They’ve been challenged more than any other team. We’ve seen them at their best more, but we’ve also magnified them at their worst. As for the 49ers, I feel like it’s going to take a perfect game for the Cowboys to win, while the 49ers can probably edge their way into the playoffs with a less-than-perfect effort.

Rosenberg: Cowboys-Eagles and Chiefs-Bills. The Eagles are reaping two benefits of earning the top seed: They got a week off to get healthier, and they get to play the lowest remaining seed in their conference. The Giants are clearly the least talented of the four NFC teams still playing. The Cowboys feel due, and they played like it Monday, though San Francisco’s extra two days of rest are a real advantage. As for K.C.-Buffalo ... isn’t that the game we have wanted to see all year long? I think we will.

Bishop: I like 49ers-Eagles and Chiefs-Bills. I know, super out on a limb here. To me, Bills-Chiefs has seemed inevitable since 13 seconds happened. Philadelphia is loaded, a complete team. The 49ers, even after all that was said, might be the favorite to win the whole thing. But that’s the beauty of the upcoming weekend. I’m almost always wrong, anyway. Enjoy!