10 Reasons the 49ers-Jets Game will Come Down to the Final Drive
The Jets are so bad, the 49ers are seven-point road favorites despite missing George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Richard Sherman and maybe Dee Ford.
Apparently, the Jets are a mere sparring partner. They provide the 49ers the perfect opportunity to get on track. That’s the narrative heading into this game.
But the 49ers were seven-point favorites last week against the Cardinals and lost. Meaning the oddsmakers may overestimate just how good the 49ers are right now. They’re beat up and psychologically shaky after giving away the Super Bowl and the Week 1 game against the Cardinals. They don’t seem like the same confident group they were last season.
So even though the 49ers are better than the Jets on paper, Sunday’s game will come down to the final drive. Here are 10 reasons why.
1. 10:00 a.m. start time.
The 49ers have to fly cross country and play a game that starts at 1:00 p.m. Eastern time. Meaning it will feel like morning for the 49ers. West Coast teams usually lose early East Coast games, because their body clocks haven’t yet adjusted to East Coast time. This will be one of the Jets’ biggest advantages on Sunday.
2. Adam Gase is coaching for his job and Kyle Shanahan isn’t.
Shanahan just got a six-year extension. He could start the season 0-10 and keep his job. He has security. Gase doesn’t. The New York media and national media spent the week roasting him for his offense’s pathetic performance against the Buffalo Bills, as if he’s totally incompetent. But Gase is competent, and he’ll need to show that on Sunday. His job depends on it. He should be focused and urgent. Will Shanahan be those things? He wasn’t last Sunday.
3. Richard Sherman’s backup probably will give up at least one big play through the air.
And it most likely will be Ahkello Witherspoon. He’ll have to cover Breshad Perriman, who averaged 17.9 yards per catch and scored six touchdowns last season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He’s a big-play threat and so is Witherspoon, in the sense that Witherspoon gives up big plays almost every time he’s on the field. The Jets will target him deep, and he probably will get burned.
4. Kwon Alexander probably will give up at least one big play on the ground.
Alexander runs around a lot. That’s the best thing you can say about him. But he freelances. He often winds up in the wrong places and gives up big runs. The Jets will run between the tackles frequently with Frank Gore, who will pick up 10 to 15 yards every time Alexander wanders into the wrong gap. And if Gore runs for 100 yards, the 49ers will lose.
5. No Kittle most likely means no big plays for the 49ers running game.
The 49ers probably will run lots of times and might rush for more than 100 yards, but they probably won’t average big yards per carry or have many long runs without Kittle. He’s their best blocker. And the Jets have a fantastic run defense. It gave 3.1 yards per carry to the Bills last week, and 3.3 yards per carry all of last season.
6. Unless Brandon Aiyuk has an electric debut, the 49ers passing game probably will struggle to produce big plays, too.
Aiyuk is an explosive player who can create big plays, but he was healthy for only 10 days in training camp. He didn’t have preseason, and he didn’t play Week 1. How much should he really play against the Jets? How much of a workload can the rookie handle in his debut? And if he’s shaky, the 49ers won’t have any other explosive receivers, because Kittle and Samuel are out. The fastest receivers will be the running backs -- Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon. Which means the 49ers offense could plod along like the Jets offense.
7. Special Teams is a cause for concern.
The 49ers gave up a blocked punt which led to a touchdown for the Cardinals last week. That essentially was the difference in the game. The Niners can’t take anything for granted right now -- they seem psychologically fragile. They easily could commit another special-teams turnover against the Jets.
8. The pass rush probably will struggle without Dee Ford.
Ford is out with neck spasms. So the Jets will double team Nick Bosa all game. Meaning Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw will be the 49ers’ primary pass-rush threats. And they’re methodical power rushers who take time to get to the quarterback. Ford is the speed rusher who forces the quarterback to scramble after just a couple seconds. When he plays, the 49ers pass rush is much more dangerous than when he sits.
9. Sam Darnold isn’t a complete statue.
If Bosa has to fight through two blockers all game, and Darnold has to avoid just Armstead and Kinlaw, Darnold can do that. He’s not a scrambler, but he can buy time behind the line of scrimmage and make throws downfield. He’s a good athlete. There’s a reason he was the third pick of the 2018 draft.
10. Jittery Jimmy Garoppolo will not win this game.
Despite all the issues the 49ers had in Week 1, they still would have won if Garoppolo had simply made the throw to Kendrick Bourne when he was wide open in the end zone in the fourth quarter.
Good Jimmy would have made that throw.
But we haven’t seen Good Jimmy since before the playoffs started last season. The past few games, he has been Jittery Jimmy. He seems scared to throw an interception, scared to take a hit, scared to pull the trigger.
Good Jimmy is none of those things. Good Jimmy is confident. Good Jimmy makes the throw to win the game no matter how he played the first three quarters. That’s what Good Jimmy did last season against the Steelers and the Rams.
But in the Super Bowl, Jittery Jimmy missed the potential game-winning throw to Emmanuel Sanders. And last week, history repeated itself as Jittery Jimmy missed the game winner to Bourne.
I believe Garoppolo will find himself in the same spot against the Jets -- down a few points late in the fourth quarter with an opportunity to lead the game-winning touchdown drive. If Good Jimmy shows up to New Jersey, the 49ers will score the touchdown and win the game. If Jittery Jimmy shows up, the 49ers will lose and start the season 0-2.
I say Good Jimmy shows up and the 49ers win 17-16. But I say that without confidence. Does Good Jimmy still exist?
