History Reveals What Broncos Should do With Russell Wilson
Russel Wilson is having an awful 2022 season for the Denver Broncos. There is no doubt of that fact, especially compared to his typical quarterbacking skills of the past.
Many analysts and fans are spending significantly too much time on the salary cap websites trying to figure out just how painful it would be for Denver to cut Wilson. Before anyone starts a campaign to have Wilson jettisoned from the team, let’s examine some factual data to understand whether the actual situation in Denver is truly dire or if there is a ray of hope for the future.
Anyone who has been following my articles/podcasts knows I have spent a significant amount of time talking about and analyzing era-adjusted quarterback seasons. By adjusting the statistical seasons of each quarterback since 1960, we can meaningfully compare any quarterback regardless of what era they played in.
This can be used to predict possible outcomes for current quarterbacks. In the case of Wilson’s uncharacteristically poor performance, there is some good news and bad news for his future when looking at past legends who have had similar careers and a 'middle-aged' drop in production.
First, it is important to understand just how good Wilson was before 2022. He is one of only 36 quarterbacks since 1960 (AFL included) with at least four seasons in the era-adjusted Top 400 (80th percentile).
Most of these quarterbacks are in the Hall of Fame or will be as soon as they are eligible. Wilson’s career was trending toward the Hall of Fame after 10 seasons. With such a stellar resume, he must be compared to other legendary quarterbacks.
With that in mind, several quarterbacks can be used for comparison to Wilson. There is also one legendary Broncos quarterback who has an interesting late-career distinction that could shed some light on Wilson’s current issue.
Wilson’s 2022 campaign is on pace to have between a 25% and 30% drop-off from his best all-time season. That is not unprecedented, as 12 legendary quarterbacks had the same thing happen. What came after these historic drop-offs is what analysts and fans can bicker over, depending on their level of optimism.
Starting with some of the good news, there are several quarterbacks in the past who had the 30-to-34-year-old dip in production only to bounce back with a Top 400 season. There are three that have very similar careers to Wilson: Bart Starr, Roman Gabriel, and John Hadl.
All of them had seasons fluctuating between great and not great for the first several years of their careers, which is very similar to Wilson. After the middle-aged dip, Hadl and Gabriel had epic comebacks the next season, with the latter having a Top 15 era-adjusted season all time. If Wilson could bounce back like that, every Broncos fan would be rejoicing, and the media who piled on would be licking his boots.
Some of the dips can be explained. Starr was dealing with a hand injury all season, and Gabriel was suffering from knee and shoulder problems.
Hadl had the decline with the struggling San Diego Chargers under Harland Savre, but the very next year was traded to the Los Angeles Rams, who possessed a good head coach in Chuck Knox and a talented roster. Wilson could be dealing with a combination of nagging injuries and head coaching problems.
The next set of quarterbacks with middle-aged dips is important to recognize, even if their earlier careers weren’t a great comparison to Wilson. Brett Favre, Fran Tarkenton, and Len Dawson had better careers early on, but all suffered that same dip only to return with stellar seasons.
Kurt Warner (not on the graph) had a late start and a very choppy career, but he also rebounded from an awful stint with the New York Giants. It is not unheard of for great quarterbacks to rebound from poor seasons. Wilson could be one of those players.
Now a little bad news. The careers of Brian Sipe, Boomer Esiason, and Jim Kelly do not look as good as the other quarterbacks mentioned. These three all had the middle-age dip, but didn’t rebound well. They did rebound, but not enough to get excited about.
Sipe is the only player who may have had a better bounce back, as his next season was on a major upswing. However, he left for the USFL, putting a wrap on his NFL career.
It's possible that Wilson could follow in the footsteps of these three. If that were to happen, the Broncos would go down as making one of the worst trades in NFL history.
Now one final piece of good news before putting a bow on this analysis. I’m talking about Broncos legend John Elway. He had otherworldly talent and was destined for the Hall of Fame, but his early career, from a statistical perspective was not very good.
Elway had one great season at age 27, but the rest of his campaigns were mediocre to poor. Then he turned 33 and had the greatest season of his career, followed by five more Top 400 seasons. He is the only quarterback in history to accomplish this feat.
The reason may be simple: Elway got into a system built to get the best out of him. Under Dan Reeves, it is no secret that the Broncos' offense was underutilizing Elway’s talents.
In 1993, when Elway had his best season, Reeves was gone, and Jim Fassel became the offensive coordinator under then-head coach Wade Phillips. Fassel brought with him the West Coast Offense, and Elway thrived.
In 1995, Mike Shanahan took the helm and continued to create a stellar offense for Elway. That is often overlooked as a key for great quarterbacks. For Wilson, Hackett is likely the wrong person to get the most out of his skills.
Now, if we remove the emotion and look at the Broncos from a logical perspective, perhaps some of the following information can talk people back from the ledge. Hackett not being a good head coach and creating an offense that doesn’t work is part of the Wilson problem.
Also, consider how the 2022 season began. Hackett made the decision not to play most starters in the preseason, including Wilson, and the entire starting wide receiver corps.
It's understandable that the Broncos would begin the season struggling on offense regardless of whether it was a good fit. The first couple of games were likely to be a little shaky, and they definitely were.
A few games in, one would expect the offense to gel and start producing, but the injuries started to pile up almost immediately as the season began. The Broncos had lost Tim Patrick to a season-ending knee injury before any games began, KJ Hamler, Greg Dulcich, and Billy Turner started out the season injured and didn’t play for several games.
By Week 3, the Broncos' injury report was already as long as your arm. Quinn Meinerz, arguably the team’s best offensive lineman, was lost for Weeks 2-5. Jerry Jeudy started showing up on the injury report nearly every week.
Then the offensive line became the walking wounded. The Broncos placed both Garett Bolles and Lloyd Cushenberry III on season-ending IR and have rotated several players into the lineup due to other injuries. At one point, five wide receivers and a tight end were on the injury report.
This is a huge factor in the Broncos' struggling offense and Wilson's apparent regression. The 2022 season never had a chance from the get-go.
Even if Hackett's offensive scheme was a good fit, the unit had no real play time to get started, and then injuries became a heavy burden. Throw most quarterbacks into that situation, and they are going to have a difficult time.
This does not absolve Wilson entirely. He has to take responsibility for the bulk of the issues.
What it Means
This indicates that, like many of the great quarterbacks of the past, this season is a dip that Wilson will bounce back from if the Broncos brass decides to make the correct, calculated moves this offseason, which would include hiring a head coach and offensive coordinator who can get the best out of the quarterback.
The Broncos need to cleanse the losing mentality by trading some players who know nothing of winning. Hopefully, Denver can put the right players around Wilson — guys who possess a winning mindset and tend to stay healthy.
This is why we should all wait until after next season before calculating the dead cap hit for cutting the quarter-of-a-billon-dollar quarterback.
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