Broncos Roster Prediction: Revealing Each RB's Odds of Making it
Every NFL team has those players that are guaranteed to make the roster. They're the easiest ones to project onto the 53-man roster, and even a team that went 5-12 the year before, like the Denver Broncos, has them.
After the quarterbacks, it's time to turn the attention to the running backs, which includes the fullback. While the quarterback position was pretty straightforward, the running backs aren't. There are many more players fighting at the running back position, even with a couple of guys in that top tier.
As I break down this position, players will be placed into three different tiers that reflect their chances of making the roster. Here's a quick explanation of the three tiers that reflect the different percentage ranges that each player will fall into.
Tier 1: 70-100% Chance of Making it
These guys are pretty much set on making the roster unless a great trade offer comes or the team decides the cost isn't worth it.
Tier 2: 41-69% Chance of Making it
These players have a good chance of making it, but they could have a lot of competition, a bad injury history, they could be holdovers of the old coaching staff, or they could have a combination of issues.
Tier 3: 0-40% Chance of Making it
This group is also known as the 'training camp bodies,' as they're the long shots to make it. But, of course, these players could have an excellent training camp and earn a spot, so very few of them fall close to the 0% side of the tier.
Tier 1: 70-100%
Javonte Williams | Samaje Perine | Michael Burton
There is no question that Williams will be part of the Broncos this season, but the question is, in what capacity to start the season? If he hasn't fully recovered by the time the regular season rolls around, the Broncos have a few different designation options.
Of course, Williams' health outlook keeps him from being a 100% lock to make the 53-man roster out of training camp, because he could end up on the Physically Unable to Perform or Injured Reserve list, but it's a great sign that he's been doing individual drills with the team.
With Williams' status up in the air, the Broncos brought in Perine to fill in during that time. Perine and Williams will be the top duo at the position whenever Williams is back. Undoubtedly, Perine will make the roster, putting him on the 100% side of the tier.
There is a great chance that Burton makes the roster, even though he is only a fullback. He spent time with Sean Payton before, back in 2020, where he played his second-most snaps in a season with 235.
What helps Burton's roster outlook, even more, is his ability to contribute on special teams, where he played over 500 snaps over the last two seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Tier 2: 40-69%
Tony Jones Jr | Tyler Badie | Jaleel McLaughlin
This tier was a bit tough, especially with two running backs having a combined two touches in the NFL. However, the trio has combined for 79 NFL touches, with 77 of them coming from Jones.
Jones is widely viewed as a favorite to make the roster due to his connection with Payton. When Jones entered the NFL, his first two years were under Payton, and he had 62 touches over that span.
What keeps Jones from being in a higher tier is the type of running back he is, which is quite similar to Williams and Perine, lacking the speed to take advantage of a worn-out defense.
That fact is why Badie and McLaughlin are in this tier, despite their complete lack of experience. Badie has two touches in the NFL, while McLaughlin is an undrafted rookie.
During the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine, Badie ran a 4.45 40-yard dash with a 1.54 10-yard split. He has burst, explosion, and good speed to take advantage of a worn-out defense.
As for McLaughlin, he didn't get an invite to the Combine but ran a 4.44-second 40 at his pro day. He's an electric runner with explosive burst and speed.
Having that element on offense, especially with two power backs in Perine and Williams wearing down defenses, could be a huge boost for Denver, which is why one of them has a good chance of making it.
However, they're also competing with each other for this spot, as well as others.
READ: Broncos Roster Prediction: Revealing Each QB's Odds of Making it
Tier 3: 0-39%
Damarea Crockett
Crockett was getting some hype before he got hurt last year. His injury is what is keeping him from being higher. If he can bounce back from the injury, he could push for a spot.
The Takeaway
The Broncos probably keep three running backs on the roster, with one fullback spot. The fullback will most likely be Burton.
As for the three spots, only one of them is filled (for sure out of camp) with Perine. If healthy, Williams fills another spot, with Jones taking his place if he isn't ready to go. However, the third spot could still be up in the air.
Badie and McLaughlin are likely competing for the No. 3 job. However, with the top two spots being filled with power backs, filling that final spot with some explosive ability could be the focus.
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