Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY SPORTS
Breaking Down the Giants' 2020 Salary Cap Picture By Unit
Before we can get to free agency and the draft, the Giants are going to need to make some tweaks to their 2020 salary cap.
The 2020 league-wide cap hasn’t yet been established, but using a $200 million projection, Over the Cap estimates the Giants as having committed $135,334,095 of that projected $200 million to 58 player contracts, which would leave them with $61,887,216 of cap space (the remaining figure, $3,999,121, is their dead money accrued).
But as previously noted, the Giants do not have a true $61.8 million—estimated or otherwise—of cap space, not when $13 million needs to be put aside for the draft class.
It’s unclear if Over the Cap also takes into consideration the postseason accounting, e.g., any Not Likely to Be Earned (NLTBE) bonuses such as any postseason honors received, or the $5,904,991 leftover cap space that per the NFLPA public cap report the Giants will probably carry over into 2020.
As previously noted, several new rules are affecting the 2020 league year, the final year in the current CBA. I’ll be looking at those rule changes in separate articles, but for this one, I’m going to break down each unit to provide a clear picture of where the most likely moves are coming.
Before doing so, let’s first look at their top five spots. Last year, I wrote an analysis for Forbes in which I determined the Giants to be too top-heavy among their top-5 highest cap hits, estimating that those top five cap commitments accounted for nearly 49% of the team’s estimated salary cap.
The good news is that this year, the Giants are in much better shape. Using the $200 million core cap figure and then adding in the $5 million projected carryover from 2019, the Giants’ top five salary cap hits account for only 30.5% of their projected 2020 salary cap, as shown below.
Source: Over the Cap
There is still work that needs to be done. It will be surprising if Alec Ogletree’s cap number is left untouched, for example. If his number is removed, that will lower the Giants’ top five average to 28.9% of the team’s projected $205 million cap, the new top five represented in the table below.
Source: Over the Cap
In the following unit sections, the data is from Spotrac, the rankings showing highest (1st) to lowest (32nd) in terms of where the Giants stand at each position regarding cap dollars allocated. (Note: These figures do not include dead money.)
Quarterbacks
2020 Cap Commitments: $5.832 million
Current League Rank: 26th
Last Year’s Rank: 5th
The expiration of Eli Manning’s contract, which is not expected to be renewed, helps this position tremendously in dropping to the fifth-highest paid down to the 26th highest.
Daniel Jones is on his rookie deal for at least the next three seasons, with an option year after that. That leaves the Giants, even if they add another quarterback to the mix (which they probably will), having committed an estimated 2.91% of the projected 2020 salary cap to this position.
Running Backs
2020 Cap Commitments: $9.3 million
Current League Rank: 9th
Last Year’s Rank: 9th
Saquon Barkley, the second overall pick in the 2018 draft, is the primary reason why this position group ranks as one of the three the Giants currently have.
There is no question that Barkley is a generational talent, but if one goes back and looks at teams that have won Super Bowls of late, it hasn’t necessarily been because of one player as much as it’s been about multiple players having a role.
By having so much money tied up in one player on offense outside of a quarterback or perhaps a left tackle is a not necessarily a good use of financial resources because it could put more pressure to play that player as much as possible, thereby running the risk of shortening his shelf life.
The Giants won’t have to worry about redoing Barkley’s contract this year, as under the current structure, he can’t seek a renegotiation until he’s put three years into the system. But it sure will be interesting to see how the Giants plan to pay Barkley, quarterback Daniel Jones, and some of their other young talents that they’re counting on as cornerstones of this franchise while still having enough money for the supporting cast.
Wide Receivers
2020 Cap Commitments: $20.228 million
Current League Rank: 14th
2019 League Rank: 23rd
The Giants unloaded Odell Beckham Jr’s contract last year, which helped lower their cap liability at this position, but then they went ahead and drove it back up with the signing of veteran Golden Tate, who was 31 years old when he signed his deal.
Tate’s 2020 cap figure only jumps up by a little more than $3 million this year, to $10.352 million, which is a projected 5.2% of the Giants' estimated 2020 salary cap.
But also creating a jump up in the rankings is Sterling Shepard, who last year received a contract extension that in 2020 gives him an $8.5 million cap hit. Assuming the Giants move on from linebacker Ogletree, that would move Shepard into the top five, as previously noted.
If Joe Judge plans to make the offense multiple and anyone’s guess as to who will be featured in the offense each week, it’s probably not a good idea to have two offensive skill players in the top five of your team’s overall salary cap structure.
Tight Ends
2020 Cap Commitments: $11.183 million
Current League Rank: 9th
Last Year’s Rank: 10th
This unit represents one of the most unbalanced in terms of salary cap allocation and has ever since Rhett Ellison signed in 2017. Ellison has been a starter, but in terms of production, he’s been behind Evan Engram, who is still on his rookie deal.
That’s not a smart approach. Given the development of Kaden Smith, who is also on his rookie deal, Ellison becomes a prime candidate to have his $7.188 million salary-cap figure removed from the books.
Offensive Line
2020 Cap Commitments: $37.976 million
Current League Rank: 9th
Last Year’s Rank: 24th
The reason behind the big jump at this position is the addition of guard Kevin Zeitler, who theoretically replaced Jamon Brown, who was on his rookie deal, in the lineup.
If they can land an offensive tackle in the draft, that pick’s first-year earnings probably won’t push the needle higher on where this unit currently ranks in terms of compensation.
While some also believe the Giants could use a center, they have a couple of options if Jon Halapio isn’t in the plans. The first is to plug Spencer Pulley, who has a $2.9 million cap hit in as the starter.
The second—and better—scenario that makes more sense and which allows for Nick Gates, who’s already under contract, to step into the starting lineup, would be to consider moving the very cerebral Zeitler to center and inserting Gates at right guard.
This solution not only helps keep costs down, but it also addresses two positions without having to go outside of the organization to spend big bucks.
And should the Giants cut Pulley, by the way, they’d save his full $2.75 million 2020 cap figure as Pulley did not receive a signing bonus that prorates, but instead he received three annual roster bonuses of $400,000 per year.
Defensive Line
2020 Cap Commitments: $7.993 million
Current League Rank: 29th
Last Year’s Rank: 31st
The defensive line has been the exception to the rule that you have to spend big money on quality. Now while this number will increase if the team re-signs Leonard Williams, it’s hard to argue against the opinion that the Giants' young defensive line, most of its members still on their rookie deals, was the strength of the team.
If the Giants and Williams can’t agree before the start of free agency, he’s likely to get the franchise tag, which for a defensive tackle is $15.5 million. Ideally, the Giants and Williams come to an agreement, which, according to Spotrac’s estimated market value, should fall somewhere around $8.2 million per year, a figure that would still keep the defensive line cap health reasonable.
Linebackers
2020 Cap Commitments: $20.911 million
Current League Rank: 12th
Last Year’s Rank: 9th
The two big earners at this spot are Alec Ogletree ($11.75 million) and Kareem Martin ($5.966 million), two contracts that are almost certain to either be trimmed or reworked.
With linebacker a significant need, it wouldn’t be surprising if a rookie deal will likely replace at least one of these contracts. What remains to be seen, though, is what the Giants do with Markus Golden.
Golden was their most productive pass rusher at the position, and he’s going to get a decent payday for his efforts. Spotrac projects Golden will end up with a contract averaging $13.5 million per season.
As good as Golden has been for the Giants, some might argue that he’s a good No. 2 pass rusher and not a guy in whom it would be wise to invest premium dollars.
One guy who could be worth premium dollars in Jaguars defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, whom Spotrac projects could land a contract worth $17.1 million per year.
Ngakoue is only 24 years old and has recorded at least 8.0 sacks in each of his first four seasons in the NFL, having his double digits in 2017 912.0 sacks).
Again, while Golden wouldn’t be a bad player to bring back, it’s difficult to envision the Giants re-signing Golden, Williams, and another pass rusher—unless that pass rusher comes from the draft.
Defensive Secondary
2020 Cap Commitments: $ 10.838 million
Current League Rank: 30th
Last Year’s Rank: 26th
The Giants’ decision to drop Janoris Jenkins during last season left them with several players who were either on their rookie contracts, undrafted free agent deals, or on prove-it deals.
Don’t expect this to change all that much, as while the Giants might look to add a veteran voice to that young cornerback room to take Jenkins’ place as a mentor, it probably won’t be a player who gets a rich multi-year contract.
Special Teams
2020 Cap Commitments: $2.725 million
Current League Rank: 21st
Last Year’s Rank: 26th
The Giants gave punter Riley Dixon a contract extension midway through the 2019 season, which takes up the bulk of their 2020 cap space for their special teams players.
Long-time long snapper Zak DeOssie hasn’t said whether he plans to retire, but with Colin Holba having done a solid job filling in for DeOssie and coming in at a much cheaper rate, it probably makes sense from a cap perspective to stick with Holba.
The only question is what to do with kicker Aldrick Rosas, who will be a restricted free agent this off-season. According to Over the Cap, the estimated 2020 RFA tenders are $4.667 million for a first-round tender, $3.278 million for a second-rounder, and $2.144 million for an original round.
As Rosas was a free agent signing, the Giants wouldn’t get any compensation if they gave him an original round tender. The $3.278 million second-round tender might be a bit too deep for a kicker who thus far has had two mediocre seasons sandwiching in one Pro Bowl year.
Rosas, however, has a strong leg and talent, and the Giants do have the room to dole out the second-round tender if they still believe in Rosas. Ideally, the two sides work out a new deal to where Rosas’ cap hit is reasonable and reflective of his career so far.
