Betting the Jaguars: Week 13 vs. the Bengals
All lines are from BetMGM
Week 12 Recap
Calvin Ridley longest reception: o22.5 yards (-115) ✅
Evan Engram: o4.5 receptions (-135) ✅
Tank Dell: o57.5 receiving yards (-110) ❌
Derrick Henry: o67.5 rushing yards (-115) ✅
Rachaad White: o28.5 receiving yards (-110) ❌
Overall Record: 30-26 (+4.36 units)
Got back on track with a 3-2 week. Calvin’s longest catch of 45 yards cleared this one easily although he had me nervous with zero catches at halftime. Evan Engram also gave me a sweat. He caught three balls late in the 4th quarter to cash the bet. Tank Dell had 50 yards at half and between the sideline play and the bomb called back for a penalty I got unlucky and lucky at the same time. Luck worked out for the Jags favor and not for my card on this one and I’m perfectly fine with that.
I really thought Derrick Henry’s line was far too low at 67.5 and I was right that it was low but it was closer than I thought. He finished with 76 rushing yards. It still counts but I really thought we were in for a classic monster Henry day. After being heavily involved in the passing game over the last month and a half Rachaad White only saw two targets which was a bummer. He had a great day on the ground. I almost played his rushing plus receiving yardage line but his rushing inefficiency scared me off. Oops.
Two Unit Bet:
Evan Engram: o42.5 receiving yards (-110)
One Unit Bet:
Jaguars Team Total: o23.5 points (-120)
I’m changing things up this week and I’m picking one player prop and putting two units on it for two reasons. First, I’m that confident in the play. Second, I think there’s a real possibility the Jaguars blow the doors open on the Bengals Monday night which can create some murky betting situations. Engram continues to be heavily involved in the passing game with a 22% target share. He also has hit at least 41 yards in eight out of eleven games. His consistency makes me comfortable betting on him and the numbers are already in his favor at 42.5 yards. Now here’s why I LOVE this play, the Bengals are absolutely terrible at covering tight ends. Here are tight end performances against them since week eight:
-George Kittle: 9 catches, 149 yards
-Dalton Kincaid: 10 catches. 81 yards
-Dalton Schultz: 4 catches, 71 yards
-Mark Andrews: 2 catches, 23 yards on first drive before injury
-Pat Freiermuth: 9 catches, 120 yards
Don’t get me wrong, that’s an insanely tough stretch of tight ends to face but Evan Engram is quite good himself. His reliability in the passing game plus the Bengals ineffectiveness defending tight ends gives me huge confidence in Engram this week.
Like I mentioned above, I think there’s a real possibility the Jaguars absolutely blow this game open this week so I really like their team total of over 23.5 points. They are playing really well on both sides of the ball, Trevor is healthy and playing with confidence, and the Bengals are not exactly in a great spot. It feels good to have a game against a lesser opponent, be favored by 8.5, and expect to hang around 30 points on them.
Other Bets
Two Unit Bet:
Tyreek Hill: o97.5 yards (-120)
I’m playing two units again(still a 5 unit week) except this time on Tyreek Hill. Take everything I wrote about him a few weeks ago and use it again. Dolphins kill bad teams, Tyreek is unstoppable, and he’s more unstoppable at home. The bonus here is the Commanders secondary has been atrocious. They are dead last in drop back EPA/play allowed.
To make matters worse, wide receivers facing Emmanuel Forbes are seventh in the league with 2.77 yards per route run. Who’s first? You guessed it. Tyreek Hill. Uhhhh yeah. That’s all I got.
