Betting the Jaguars: Week 18 vs. the Titans
Week 17 Recap
Game total over 36.5 -110❌
Calvin Ridley longest reception over 22.5 yards -120❌
Bryce Young over 170.5 passing yards -115❌
Zamir White o70.5 rushing yards -115✅
Chris Godwin o 55.5 receiving yards -110✅
Overall Record 40-37 +2.67 units
Hands up. This was my worst read of a Jaguars game all season. Yeah, the Panthers are the worst team in the league but this team has made me look silly by predicting them to win three times in the last four weeks leading into this game. I’m not mad by any means because that game is exactly what this team needed. Especially without Trevor Lawrence. I thought both teams would at least score and that 36.5 would be a pretty easy over. Wrong.
I thought C.J. Beathard would be throwing it deep a handful of times as he’s shown in the past. Wrong. I thought Bryce Young would be able to muster a measly 171 yards against a defense that allowed 300 yard passing games to Jake Browning and Joe Flacco. Wrong. Thankfully I was saved by Zamir White and Chris Godwin and, quite frankly, I got lucky on both. Zamir White finished with 71 rushing yards and I caught this line early enough as it had risen to 72.5 by gametime. Chris Godwin was catchless at half time and didn’t cash this prop until he caught a 47 yard touchdown pass with 1:37 left to go in the game. Thank you football gods for the redemption after completely whiffing on the Jaguars game.
The Jaguars have a win and in scenario this week against the Titans what else do you need to root for? These are the types of games we spent so long wishing for. We also still don’t know if Trevor Lawrence will be playing and trying to figure out if he’s playing and making bets accordingly has been tough. It’s time to just enjoy this one for what it is. If I were to suggest a play it would be the Jaguars spread. It’s currently -3.5 and if Lawrence plays it will probably rise to -5.5 or -6.5. I don’t think either matter. The Titans aren’t good and the Jaguars have everything to play for. I do think they win this one pretty easily and by a touchdown.
Texans -1 -110
Bears +3 -110
Week 18 is weird and I generally go light on it each year. So many teams have nothing left to play for and starters all over the league are getting rested for the playoffs. The bets I do make, however, all have one thing in common. They all get placed in games that matter. I don’t want anything to do with trying to predict a game between two teams out of the playoff picture. I’ve played player props for the most part and even those can get murky in games where a team might pull a guy starter earlier than they normally would so this week I have two spreads I really like. Both of these are gut plays but sometimes you gotta just ride with your gut.
First up is the Houston Texans -1 over the Indianapolis Colts. C.J. Stroud has returned from his concussion and after having a game to readjust, should be back to full-go this week. I’m surprised that the Texans are only favored by 1 even though they are on the road. They have the quarterback advantage (by a mile) and in a game where the loser’s playoff hopes are crushed, I’m easily betting on the team with the better quarterback.
I also really like the Chicago Bears +3 against the Green Bay Packers. Winners of four out of their last five games, the Bears are playing much better football and their only loss was against the playoff-bound Browns. Their defense is much improved since trading for Montez Sweat and Justin Fields is on a mission to prove he is Chicago’s long-term starter. The Packers are fighting for the last wild card spot in the NFC which also gives the Bears the shot to play spoiler to their biggest rival. I think the Bears win this one outright but we’re gonna take the +3 to stay on the safe side.
