Point Spread: Despite Perfect Home Record, Titans Underdogs vs. Colts on Sunday

The Tennessee Titans are used to being an underdog this season, but it's a little surprising that it's the case again on Sunday at home against the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans, after all, are 4-0 at home this season. Here's the latest on the point spread, plus a great history on both teams against the spread this season.

NASHVILLE — In this weird Tennessee Titans football season, several things have been obvious. They're really good in Nashville, where they are a perfect 4-0, but they've struggled away from the Music City, losing all seven games.

That's why it's surprising that the Indianapolis Colts are actually a 1.5-point favorite in Sunday's AFC South showdown at Nissan Stadium, according to the SISportsbook.com gambling website. The over/under is 41.5. I didn't see that coming. 

The Titans have in this position before, of course. In three of their four home games — the win over Carolina last week was the outlier — the Titans have been underdogs at Nissan. They were 2.5-point dogs against the Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons, but beat they them all outright anyway.

The Colts are 6-5 right now, and still in the AFC playoff hunt. The Titans are on the outside looking in, but are hoping another home win can change that. They still have home games with Seattle, Houston and Jacksonville, and are still hoping to make some noise.  The Titans, to a man, still feel like they have a lot to play for.

Here's what the Titans have done against the spread so far this season:

Titans vs. the number in 2023

• WEEK 1: Lost at New Orleans Saints 16-15 as a 3-point underdog. The total (31) went far under the 41.5-point line. Record: 0-1. Against the spread: 1-0. Under Total Record: 1-0.
• WEEK 2: Won at home against the Los Angeles Chargers 27-24 in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog. The total (51) went over the 45.5-point line. Record: 1-1. Against the spread: 2-0. Under Total Record: 1-1.
• WEEK 3: Lost at Cleveland Browns 27-3 as a 3.5-point underdog. The total (30) went far under the 38.5-point line. Record: 1-2. Against the spread: 2-1. Under Total Record: 2-1.
• WEEK 4: Won at home against the Cincinnati Bengals 27-3 as a 2.5-point underdog. The total (30) went under the 40.5-point line. Record: 2-2. Against the spread: 3-1. Under Total Record: 3-1.
• WEEK 5: Lost at Indianapolis Colts 23-16 as a 2.5-point favorite. The total (39) went under the 43.5-point line. Record: 2-3. Against the spread: 3-2. Under Total Record: 4-1.
• WEEK 6: Lost in London to the Baltimore Ravens 24-16 as a 4.5-point underdog. The total (40) went under the 44.5-point line. Record: 2-4. Against the spread: 3-3. Under Total Record: 5-1.
• WEEK 7: Bye.
• WEEK 8: Won at home against the Atlanta Falcons 28-23 as a 2.5-point underdog. The total (51) went far over the 35.5-point line, which was the lowest of the year, by far. Record: 3-4. Against the spread: 4-3. Under Total Record: 5-2.
• WEEK 9: Lost at Pittsburgh Steelers 20-16 as a 2.5-point underdog. The total (36) went just under the 36.5-point line. Record: 3-5. Against the spread: 4-4. Under Total Record: 6-2.
• WEEK 10: Lost at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-6 as a 2.5-point underdog. The total (26) went just under the 39.5-point line. Record: 3-6. Against the spread: 4-5. Under Total Record: 7-2.
• WEEK 11: Lost at Jacksonville Jaguars 34-14 as a 6.5-point underdog. The total (48) went over the 39.5-point line. Record: 3-7. Against the spread: 4-6. Under Total Record: 7-3.
• WEEK 12: Won at home against the Carolina Panthers 17-10 as a 3.5-point favorite. The total (27) went far under the 36.5-point line. Record: 4-7. Against the spread: 5-6. Under Total Record: 8-3.

The Colts won the first meeting on Oct. 8 in Indianapolis, taking advantage of the Titans' red-zone issues and inability to stop the run in a 23-16 win. Zach Moss rushed for a season-high 165 yards that day. 

It was the first — and only — time the Titans had been favored in a game until they beat the 1-10 Panthers are week ago. They lost anyway, which might have something to do with the Colts being favored again. Maybe they see another big game on the ground from Indianapolis. 

Here's what the Colts — who have won three games in a row — have done so far vs. the spread: 

Colts vs. the number in 2023

• WEEK 1: Lost at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars at 31-21 as a 3.5-point underdog. The total (52) went over the 45.5-point line. Record: 0-1. Against the spread: 0-1. Under Total Record: 0-1..
• WEEK 2: Won at Houston Texans 31-20 as a 1.5-point underdog. The total (51) went over the 40.5-point line. Record: 1-1. Against the spread: 1-1. Under Total Record: 0-2.
• WEEK 3: Won at Baltimore Ravens 22-19 in overtime as a 7.5-point underdog. The total (41) went under the 44.5-point line. Record: 2-1. Against the spread: 2-1. Under Total Record: 1-2.
• WEEK 4: Lost at home to the Los Angeles Rams 29-23 as a 1-point underdog. The total (52) went over the 44.5-point line. Record: 2-2. Against the spread: 2-2. Under Total Record: 1-3.
• WEEK 5: Won at home against the Tennessee Titans 23-16 as a 2.5-point underdog. The total (39) went under the 43.5-point line. Record: 3-2. Against the spread: 3-2. Under Total Record: 2-3.
• WEEK 6: Lost at Jacksonville Jaguars 37-20 as a 3.5-point underdog. The total (57) went over the 43.5-point line. Record: 3-3. Against the spread: 3-3. Under Total Record: 2-4
• WEEK 7: Lost at home to the Cleveland Browns 39-38 as a 3.5-point underdog. The total (77) went far under the 40.5-point line. Record: 3-4. Against the spread: 3-4. Under Total Record: 2-5.
• WEEK 8: Lost at home to the New Orleans Saints 38-27 as a 2.5-point underdog. The total (65) went far under the 44.5-point line. Record: 3-5. Against the spread: 3-5. Under Total Record: 2-6.
• WEEK 9: Won at Carolina Panthers 27-13 as a 1.5-point favorite. The total (40) went under the 45.5-point line. Record: 4-5. Against the spread: 4-5. Under Total Record: 3-6.
• WEEK 10: Beat the New England Patriots 10-6 in Frankfort, Germany as a 2-point favorite. The total (16) went under the 42.5-point line. Record: 5-5. Against the spread: 5-5. Under Total Record: 4-6.
• WEEK 11: Bye.
• WEEK 12: Won at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-20 as a 2.5-point favorite. The total (47) went over the 44.5-point line. Record: 6-5. Against the spread: 6-5. Under Total Record: 4-7.