A Faulty Draw, a Clear Headliner and Predictions for the Champions League Last 16
“This is impossible.” Giorgio Marchetti, UEFA's vice general secretary, knew that Villarreal couldn’t play Manchester United in the Champions League round of 16, as they had been in the same group. How could this be? The draw had gone wrong. Someone had blundered. He called for another ball to be taken from the bowl. Andrey Arshavin, apparently finding the fiasco hilarious, drew out Manchester City. Marchetti then did not include United among the clubs who could have played Atlético Madrid, which drew Bayern Munich.
Michael Heselschwerdt, UEFA’s head of club competitions, looked pale. Was it him? Had he put the wrong balls in the bowl for Arshavin to draw? But no, he had done what Marchetti had told him. Thankfully, an external scapegoat was to hand: “Following a technical problem with the software of an external service provider that instructs the officials as to which teams are eligible to play each other, a material error occurred in the draw,” UEFA wrote in a statement, as it voided the entirety of the initial draw.
And so it was redone: Man United vs. PSG, Lionel Messi vs. Cristiano Ronaldo, Mauricio Pochettino against the team he may end up managing next season—all of that was no more. Nor was there a repeat of the 1962 (Benfica vs. Real Madrid) or 1972 (Ajax vs. Inter Milan) European Cup finals, possibilities lost in time, like tears in the rain.
So an extra layer of intrigue and drama was added to what had already been a more engaging Champions League group stage than has been the case recently. Still, though, the sense remains that the competition doesn’t really begin until February. The fact that some serial league champions, Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Barcelona, failed to win their domestic leagues this year and ended up in Pot 2 enlivened the preliminaries, but for all the early shocks, in only four of the eight groups did the wealthiest two sides by revenue not make it through (which is to say, 12 of the 16 wealthiest sides did, and Villarreal ousting Atalanta is, at most, minor shock).
A lot can change over the next two months, both in terms of form and personnel, but after Monday’s redrawn draw, here’s a closer look ahead to the last 16 and who is most likely to go through to the quarterfinals (predicted winner in bold).
Richard Juilliart/UEFA/Getty Images
Red Bull Salzburg vs. Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich has been immensely impressive this season. It is six points clear in the Bundesliga and won six out of six in the group, scoring 22 goals and conceding only three. But, as so often in modern football, that very domination is a cause for concern. The high line Hansi Flick deployed has been retained by Julian Nagelsmann, and there must be concerns that it can make Bayern vulnerable against high-class opponents. Nagelsmann himself has a history of trying to temper a hard-pressing approach in major games. Salzburg is just as dominant in Austria as Bayern in Germany, but this is its first appearance in the last 16.
Sporting CP vs. Manchester City
To reach the last 16 having lost its first game, 5–1, at home is a remarkable achievement from Sporting, but that openness must be a concern against a side of Manchester City’s class. Sporting lost three group games and let in 12 goals in its six group matches and, even given City’s occasional tendency to fail to take its opportunities, it would be a major surprise if the Portuguese champion could hold out.
Pep Guardiola has a history of overcomplicating certain games in Europe for fear of the opponent’s capacity to counterattack, but surely not here. City’s two defeats in the group came on a slightly freakish match away to Paris Saint-Germain and then in a dead rubber vs. Leipzig with the top spot already secured, and domestically it has looked in ominous form recently.
Benfica vs. Ajax
Ajax was perhaps the greatest revelation of the group stage, winning all six games and playing perhaps with even greater joy and freedom than the side that came so close to reaching the final three seasons ago. Dušan Tadić remains a highly gifted creator, while Sébastien Haller, with 10 goals, looks a world away from the lumbering forward who struggled at West Ham. But Benfica eliminated Barcelona and kept four clean sheets in six games in the group stage, even briefly troubling Bayern away. Jorge Jesus’s side may be four points off the top in Portugal, but it looks like a serious European team again.
Chelsea vs. Lille
No side, perhaps, breathed such a sigh of relief as Chelsea—and it got to do so multiple times. The sloppy draw away to Zenit in the final group game meant it finished second in the group, and there’s little doubt that Lille, currently 11th in Ligue 1, represented the preferred option of the sides that had topped their group that Chelsea was eligible to face. Even more fortunate, Chelsea drew Lille twice, both in the annulled draw and the real one.
It took Lille time to adjust to the departure of manager Christophe Galtier after winning the league last season, but there has been recent evidence of Jocelyn Gourvennec instilling a solidity. Chelsea may struggle to break Lille down, but if it can rediscover the control that has characterized most of Thomas Tuchel’s reign, it’s hard to see how Lille can hurt the European champion.
Atlético Madrid vs. Manchester United
Both sides, if they’re being honest with themselves, may wonder how they got to this stage. United didn’t have the better of any of the four games against Villarreal or Atalanta, yet somehow, thanks to a series of late goals from Cristiano Ronaldo, dropped only two points in them. Atlético played poorly for much of the group stage but burgled two late goals away to AC Milan and then provoked Porto into self-destruction in the final match to secure passage to the last 16. Since the departure of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, United has looked far more solid, but this will be a test of its temperament as much as its ability under Ralf Rangnick. And it's another chance for Ronaldo to potentially torment a side he has long enjoyed facing (25 goals in 35 games) under the bright lights.
Villarreal vs. Juventus
After a miserable start to the season, Juventus has slowly been improving, as Max Allegri has begun to reshape the squad and the style of play. Juve is up to sixth in Serie A and is likely to be higher come February, although the 4–0 defeat away to Chelsea in the group stage was a warning that there is still a long way to go. Villarreal lies 13th in Spain, but Unai Emery’s great gift as a coach has always been his capacity to win knockout games rather than to perform consistently over a league season. The battle between Arnaut Danjuma and Danilo on the Villarreal left is likely to be key.
Inter Milan vs. Liverpool
Liverpool became the first English side to win six out of six group games, and its only defeat this season was the 3–2 reverse at West Ham, yet doubts remain about its defensive capacities, with Virgil van Dijk not quite as dominant as he was before his knee injury. The Reds may have scored three or more goals on 14 occasions this season, but they have also conceded two or more six times. Add in the fact that Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané and Naby Keïta will not have just returned from the Africa Cup of Nations when the first leg takes place, and there may be reason for some concern on Merseyside, particularly against an Inter side that has overcome the departure of manager Antonio Conte to thrive under Simone Inzaghi, while Edin Dzeko has been performing well in place of Romelu Lukaku alongside Lautaro Martínez in the club's attack.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Real Madrid
Both sides are clear atop their domestic leagues, but neither has been impressive in Europe. The signing of Lionel Messi has given PSG the glitziest forward line imaginable, but the problem is that none of Messi, Neymar or Kylian Mbappé can be relied upon to fulfill their defensive responsibilities, meaning a gap often opens up between the front three and the back seven. That space is exactly the sort of thing that Luka Modrić, still majestic at 36, could be able to exploit, although there must be concerns about how long the aging midfield trio can keep carrying Madrid, even if Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior have been in prime form recently.
Madrid will be ruing that it won't face Benfica as had originally been drawn, but the result is a tie with subplots ranging from the Super League power struggle, to Sergio Ramos's return to the Bernabeu, to Messi's return as an opponent in a different shirt to what could come if Mbappé is to sign a precontract with Madrid when he is eligible to upon the opening of the January transfer window.
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