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February 27, 2012
As the All-Star break approaches, SI's NBA guru takes stock of his preseason picks
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February 27, 2012

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As the All-Star break approaches, SI's NBA guru takes stock of his preseason picks

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Feel like this NBA season is flying by? You're not alone: Midseason has arrived a mere 11 weeks after the opening of training camp in this strange, lockout-shortened year. But as we reach the All-Star break, a few things have been dependable, such as the play of the Heat and the Thunder. Two months ago I picked those two teams to reach the NBA Finals, with Miami winning, and nothing has happened to change that assessment. Oklahoma City has thrived in the condensed season with its youth (86% of the Thunder's minutes go to players 27 or younger), improved defense and the leadership of Kevin Durant (right) and Russell Westbrook to establish itself as the top contender in the wide-open West.

The East has been dominated by last year's conference finalists, and the Bulls' resilience in the absence of so many pillars—MVP Derrick Rose, All-Star Luol Deng and Richard Hamilton have missed extended stretches—gives Chicago hope that it will better meet the challenge in its anticipated postseason rematch with Miami. But playoff games are won by stars who elevate their play, and no team has more upside in that crucial area than the Heat trio of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. As well as they're performing now, expect them to be even better come May and June.


Following an atrocious 1--4 start and the four-game convalescence of 33-year-old Dirk Nowitzki, the defending champion Mavericks are renewing themselves as title contenders. Nowitzki is back on his feet with just enough spring in his step. He's averaging 19.1 points per game, his worst in 13 years, but that number is 23.6 in February. The loss of free agent Tyson Chandler was supposed to hamper the D, but the Mavs are actually holding opponents to a lower field goal percentage (an NBA-best 41.6%) than last year (45.0%).

As many as five teams in the West—including the younger Spurs, the explosive Clippers, the Lakers and the lurking Grizzlies—have reason to believe they can overcome OKC and reach the Finals. But none is quite so dangerous or confident as Dallas, which is deep and experienced—and has the NBA's best closer in Nowitzki.

As for a dark horse in the East, there is none. Unless the elderly Celtics are miraculously reborn or the ever-changing pieces of the Knicks suddenly click like fruit on a slot machine, it is inconceivable that anyone will beat both the Heat and the Bulls.


MVP Another preseason pick that hasn't changed. James is having his best season at both ends of the floor (his player efficiency rating is 32.8, which would be the highest single-season mark in NBA history), and he's been Miami's mainstay in the absences of Wade, who has missed nine games. His main challenges will come from Durant, Paul and, more surprisingly, San Antonio's Tony Parker, but expect James to win his third MVP in four years.


I was off base predicting a big impact by first-year coach Mike Brown, who has improved the Lakers' defense but can do nothing to hide his dearth of three-point shooting (29.7% from behind the arc) and dribble-drivers. So the favorite is now Chicago's Tom Thibodeau (right), whose team plays well no matter who is watching in street clothes.

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