2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 8: Steelers, Cardinals Take Division Leads

Pittsburgh overtakes Baltimore for the AFC North lead, while Arizona wins its second straight. Plus, the Chiefs and Lions maintain control of the top seeds in the AFC and NFC.

Calvin Austin III scored a pair of touchdowns for the Steelers in their 26-18 win over the Giants on Monday night. Pittsburgh is now in first place in the AFC North. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Jump to playoff standings

1. AFC: Who’s In
2. In the Hunt
3. NFC: Who’s In
4. In the hunt

The NFL standings are moving as we head toward November.

On Sunday, we saw a slew of wild finishes. The Cleveland Browns pulled the ultimate upset behind Jameis Winston, beating the Baltimore Ravens, 29–24. In Jacksonville, the Green Bay Packers survived a furious rally from the Jaguars, winning 30–27 on a game-winning, last-second kick for the second consecutive week. 

The top teams also handled their business, including the Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, with the latter winning on the road with ease. 

But how do the playoff races look? We break it all down below.

Everything will be updated after the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games. Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.

AFC: Who’s In

Mahomes had one of his best games of the season with a pair of touchdown passes in the Chiefs' win over the Raiders on Sunday. / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 7–0, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 6

Playoff probability: 99%

The Chiefs handled the Raiders in Las Vegas, and remain 2.5 games up on the Denver Broncos for the AFC West lead. Kansas City now comes home for a Monday night date with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before playing host to Denver at Arrowhead Stadium.

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No. 2: Houston Texans

Record: 6–2, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 96%

The Texans earned a massive win Sunday, beating the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium to secure a season sweep of the only AFC South rival within striking distance. Houston’s main concern now is chasing Kansas City while warding off the hard-charging Buffalo Bills.

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No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 6–2, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 5

Playoff probability: 78%

The Steelers moved into first place in the AFC North due to the Baltimore Ravens’ loss to the Cleveland Browns, and their win on Monday night over the New York Giants. Now, a week off before playing Washington.

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No. 4: Buffalo Bills

Record: 6–2, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 98%

Buffalo hammered the Seahawks in Seattle, and now comes home to face the Miami Dolphins (2–5) with little in the way of defensive chops. The Bills look like a top-five team in the league, led by an MVP favorite in Josh Allen.

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No. 5: Denver Broncos

Record: 5–3, second place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 5
Playoff probability: 45%

Denver might be the surprise of the season. Bo Nix has played better in recent weeks, and the Broncos’s defense has been elite. If Denver can go to Baltimore and win in Week 9, it’s a statement and then some.

No. 6: Baltimore Ravens

Record: 5–3, second place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 6

Playoff probability: 91%

The Ravens looked like arguably the best team in football, and then watched Jameis Winston shred their defense for 333 passing yards in a 29–24 loss. Baltimore will host the Denver Broncos on Sunday in a key AFC game.

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No. 7: Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 4–3, third place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 78%

The Chargers are limited offensively, but they play good defense and have an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert. In the AFC wild-card race, that could be enough to get a spot.

In the Hunt

Indianapolis Colts (4–4): Indianapolis has a huge problem at quarterback. Joe Flacco is better than Anthony Richardson, but he’s also an aging veteran. Richardson is theoretically the future, but he’s completing less than half of his attempts. Shane Steichen needs to make a tough call, and soon.

Cincinnati Bengals (3–5): Cincinnati can’t stop anybody, giving up another 37 points Sunday to the Philadelphia Eagles. Next week, it’s the Raiders coming to the Queen City in a must-win game.

Miami Dolphins (2–5): The Dolphins controlled their game Sunday but somehow lost at the gun to Arizona. Now Miami heads to Buffalo, a place that has been a horror show for the Dolphins in recent years.

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NFC: Who’s In

Kalif Raymond had five punt returns for 190 yards, including a 90-yarder for a score in the Lions' rout of the Titans on Sunday. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No. 1: Detroit Lions

Record: 6–1, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 7

Playoff probability: 95%

The Lions hung 52 points on the Tennessee Titans in an easy victory, despite Jared Goff throwing for fewer than 100 yards. Detroit has a tough schedule ahead, but also a real case as the NFC’s favorite by a wide margin.

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No. 2: Washington Commanders

Record: 6–2, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 79%

The Commanders looked ticketed for the wild-card portion of this piece, and then Jayden Daniels connected on a last-second, game-winning 52-yard touchdown pass to Noah Brown. Sometimes, a team just has magic.

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No. 3: Atlanta Falcons

Record: 5–3, first place, NFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 5

Playoff probability: 86%

Atlanta went into Tampa Bay and took down the beat-up Buccaneers, with Kirk Cousins throwing four touchdowns. The Falcons host Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in Week 9.

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No. 4: Arizona Cardinals

Record: 4–4, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 31%

Who would have guessed the Cardinals would be leading the NFC West after eight games? Yet, Arizona has found a way, beating the Chargers and Dolphins on last-second field goals over the past six days to find themselves in great position.

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No. 5: Green Bay Packers

Record: 6–2, second place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 77%

Green Bay has obvious concern surrounding the health of Jordan Love, but the Packers appear to be a strong contender. After beating the Jacksonville Jaguars, Green Bay will face the Lions at Lambeau Field in a first-place showdown.

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No. 6: Minnesota Vikings

Record: 5–2, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 5

Playoff probability: 74%

Minnesota has lost two straight coming out of its bye week, and the Vikings are now without star left tackle Christian Darrisaw for the year with a torn ACL and MCL. Minnesota hosts the Colts on Sunday night in what suddenly is a very important game for both teams.

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No. 7: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 5–2, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 85% 

By beating the Bengals, the Eagles are getting right offensively, specifically in the passing game. Philadelphia still has questions on both sides of the ball, but the Eagles are 5–2 with the lowly Jaguars on deck.

In the hunt

Chicago Bears (4–3): What a brutal loss to Washington. The Bears have a difficult slate ahead, and Chicago goes from being in excellent shape to outside the playoff picture on a Hail Mary.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–4): The Buccaneers are sitting on a two-game losing streak, don’t have Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, and have the Chiefs and 49ers next.

San Francisco 49ers (4–4): The 49ers handled the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. San Francisco now goes to the bye week in a three-way tie atop the NFC West.