Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Mets vs. Brewers Moneyline Pick, Run Total Goes Over)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the New York Mets-Milwaukee Brewers matchup.

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) hits a sacrifice fly during the second inning of their wild-card playoff game against the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. / Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There's only one game on the slate today after the Detroit Tigers, San Diego Padres and Kansas City Royals punched their tickets yesterday in two-game sweeps. 

The New YorkMets-Milwaukee Brewers matchup has been so much fun, and I can't wait to see this one play out today.

Let's follow the trend of backing the underdog!

If you had bet the underdog in every MLB playoff game so far, you would be 5-3, and your bankroll would be growing nicely. 

We're also going to follow the trend of this series going over.   Most playoff games tend to be low-scoring, but both games in this series have gone over, and with the season on the line, I trust these bats more. 

MLB Best Bets Today for Mets vs. Brewers Game 3

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Mets ML +114
• Over 7.5 +104

The Mets will start Jose Quintana tonight, who has an ERA of 3.75 this season, though his xERA is 4.49, according to Statcast. In two games vs. the Brewers this season, Quintana has allowed 11 hits, a .314 batting average, and four runs with an ERA of 4.00.

Quintana's 3.33 walks per nine could get him into some trouble with the Brewers' 9.7% regular-season walk rate, the second-best mark in the league. 

Tobias Myers starts for the Brewers. Myers has an ERA of 3.00 this season with an xERA of 4.11.  In his single outing vs. the Mets, he faced 14 batters and allowed only one hit and no earned runs.  

That's why we are getting another low game total, and the Brewers are favored.

Both bullpens have an ERA of 4.50 in this series. Managers will quickly make moves with their starters with the season on the line, but I don't have extreme faith in either team's relievers.

In just two playoff games, the Mets have hit .389 with a .958 OPS and 11 RBI with runners in scoring position. The Brewers have hit .250 with five RBI. That stat has me backing the Mets and the over in Game 3. 

The Mets have also scored the most runs and had an 11.5% walk rate with one stolen base. The Brewers have an uncharacteristic 2.9% walk rate over the last two.

Let's root for the bats today, with the underdogs coming out on top. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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