NBA Betting Guide for 10/28: Pacers-Pistons, Warriors-Pelicans, Jazz-Suns

Our expert bets for three games on Monday night's NBA slate.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

While most sports bettors are going to the window to place a wager on Monday Night Football I will be looking to run it up on the NBA hardwood tonight. The league has an 11-game slate tonight. I will not be betting all 11, but I have three games that I see betting value in.

Indiana Pacers vs. Detroit Pistons

Point Spread: Pistons +1.5

Total: 213

This is a rematch of last week's opening game in which the Pistons beat the Pacers in Indianapolis. That game went off with the Pacers as 7-point home favorites, and they lost the game by nine points. Tonight's game opened up with the Pistons as 2-point home underdogs. The Pistons will be without Reggie Jackson, who is nursing a back injury. Over the weekend, the Pacers were beaten down by the Cavaliers, that night Indiana was a 4.5-point road favorite and they lost by 11. The Pistons also have back-to-back losses, both at home. Derrick Rose will pick up the scoring slack left by Jackson. One thing I'm not at all comfortable with is betting short road favorites, The Pacers just lost as a short road favorite, no way I'm betting them tonight. I will take the Pistons +1.5 and a drip on the money line.

Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Point Spread: Pelicans -5

Total: 237

The Golden State Warriors have been getting a taste of their own medicine to start the NBA season. The once-powerful Dubs have started the season with back-to-back blowout losses. Tonight the winless New Orleans Pelicans are looking to be the latest team to get their shot at revenge. The Pelicans may not have any victories in the young season but they have competed well. A bad beat kept them for covering the number versus the Raptors. They had a 16-point first-half lead against the Mavericks, and the went on the road and played the Rockets down to the wire. The betting public loves the Pelicans tonight. This game opened up with the Pels as a 3.5-point favorite, and they have been bet up to a 5-point favorite. The public wants to sit back and watch as the Warriors get beat tonight. Most of my betting advice is not based on stats, players or teams. I like to bet on numbers and situations; that's why I like the Warriors to cover the spread tonight. Nationally televised games attract a lot of recreational bettors, these bettors almost always side with the favorite. Tonight they have moved this line 1.5 points in the Warriors direction. I will bet that situation all the time.

Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns

Point Spread: Suns +4.5

Total: 213.5

The Phoenix Suns have a good chance to be the most profitable team for smart bettors this NBA season. So far they are 3-0 ATS on the season. A 29-point victory over the Kings to open the season and a victory over the Clippers have Phoenix Suns backers optimistic. New head coach Monte Williams seems to have the Suns turning a corner, and the betting public is not buying it—they see the same old Suns. Phoenix has improved tremendously defensively, and Devon Booker is getting scoring help from Kelly Oubre Jr. and Frank Kaminsky. Utah has a pair of home wins on the season, sandwiched around a road loss to the Lakers. Tonight, Utah has one of my favorite situations to bet against: a short road favorite with the spread moving in the home team’s direction. This spread opened up with Utah laying 4.5 points, it has been bet up to 5 and I can see it continuing to move in the direction of the Suns. I will gladly take Phoenix as a home dog and drip on the money line. The Jazz are 0-3 Over/Under this season the Suns are 1-2 Over/Under. Tonight's total opened up at 217 and has been bet down to 213.5. I think the Jazz will have a hard time keeping the Suns in check. I will take the over.