College Basketball Best Bets: Two Under-the-Radar Road Favorites Have Value

There are quite a few games on tap for Wednesday, but Fairleigh Dickinson-St. Peter's and San Diego-Cal State Fullerton are the two matchups that grabbed our attention.

After going 2-0 with best bets last night, SI Gambling hopes to continue the positive momentum into Wednesday. College basketball experts Three Man Weave are rolling with two under-the-radar road favorites for tonight's action. For these bets, we're using the current odds (as of 10:45 a.m. EST) from William Hill for San Diego-Cal State Fullerton and from Circa Sports for Fairleigh Dickinson-Saint Peter's (which was not available on William Hill). 

Fairleigh Dickinson at Saint Peter’s
3MW Pick: FDU -2.5

Look, I know what you’re thinking: you see a showdown between New Jersey archrivals Fairleigh Dickinson and Saint Peter’s, and you think I’m forcing a pick because it’s clearly the marquee game of the night (the week?). However, as hyped as I am to head to my local watering hole, order some beer and wings, and watch the Knights and Peacocks clash for Garden State supremacy, I promise this one is actually about having an edge (in theory, at least).

Fairleigh Dickinson is currently underrated by most analytics sites as a result of injuries sapping the Knights of their potency early on this year. Ranked 272 at KenPom, 298 at Haslametrics and 278 at BartTorvik, FDU struggled early on without Xzavier Malone-Key (missed the first four games) and Jahlil Jenkins (missed the first two after Malone-Key’s return). Both are now healthy for the third straight game, and while depth is still an issue (freshman Devon Dunn has missed four straight), the reunion of the team’s two backcourt keystones should weaponize the Knights’ attack going forward. To evidence this, in their first game back together, Jenkins and Malone-Key combined for 46 points on 15-for-29 shooting in a win over a solid Quinnipiac squad,

Of course, that status of being underrated is built into this line: KenPom only has FDU winning by a point, while oddsmakers have set the number higher. I would argue that it’s not high enough, though, considering how important those two guards are. Plus, these two campuses are only 14 miles apart, so home-court advantage as a result of travel should be almost zero.

The concerns here are in the paint, where Saint Peter’s has a few bodies in Derrick Woods, K.C Ndefo and the Drame brothers (Fousseyni and Hassan) that will relentlessly attack the offensive glass. Saint Peter’s ranks 29th in the country in offensive rebound rate, a clear advantage against FDU’s defensive rebounding, which ranks 339. However, the reason why the Peacocks get so many offensive boards is that they miss so many easy shots. Saint Peter’s ranks dead last in the country in 2P%, converting just 33.5% of shots inside the arc, a galling rate. Even against smaller teams like Wagner and Saint Francis (NY), the Peacocks were pitiful from close range.

There’s also a major coaching edge here, in my opinion. Greg Herenda has been terrific at FDU for years now, making two NCAA tournaments in the last four seasons, while Shaheen Holloway has yet to build any tangible momentum in his second season at the helm at SPC (despite a few recruiting successes). Herenda’s Knights dominated the first matchup between the two bosses last year, getting ahead 19-5 and leading by 15ish for basically the entire game. The Peacocks will surely be seeking revenge, but they don’t have the means to get enough stops against FDU’s formidable offense. 

San Diego at Cal State Fullerton
3MW Pick: San Diego -3

Before laying a penny on San Diego tonight, make sure you account for the following situational dynamic in your handicapping.

Yup, that’s right. We’re fading an In-N-Out sponsored "Dinner in Stands" night at Titan Gymnasium. We may come to find out this adds an extra 10 points of home-court value to Fullerton's side here, but we’ll take our chances.

Not shown in that video above is Jackson Rowe, who is mysteriously missing in action this season for the Titans. Rowe was projected by many to be CSF’s most productive player this year after notching a whopping 84 starts from his freshman to junior seasons. Some speculate he’s destined for a redshirt, which would officially sideline him for the entire 2019-20 campaign.

Without Rowe’s interior scoring, the Titans’ offense sits on the same chassis as last year’s version: a pair of downhill drivers in constant pursuit of the rim. But, going from Khalil Ahmad and Kyle Allman (last year’s 1-2 guard punch) to Brandon Kamga and Austen Awosika is like trading in a Corvette for a Corolla. Kamga and Awosika are the Titans’ most highly used offensive players, but lack the explosive burst, creative handle and nose for the goal that their rim-attacking predecessors possessed.

Even if that duo does successfully penetrate the heart of the Toreros’ defense on occasion, a shot-swatting savant will be waiting for them: Yauhen Massalski. The 6’11" Belarus native, who spent the first month of the season recovering from "bone spur shavings" (whatever that means), shined in his season debut over the weekend against Holy Cross. Massalski paced USD with 12 points and 8 rebounds in just 22 minutes of action, which inspired the following comments from head coach Sam Scholl after the game:

“There’s his presence in the paint,” said Scholl. “Obviously, that’s the thing we were missing. Even the shots he didn’t block, when you drive and see that much bigger of a body, you start to think about finishing drives.”

The advanced statistics from last year prove how much Massalski moves the needle defensively. USD surrendered just 0.94 points per possession with him on the floor last year, compared to 1.02 with him off the floor. Additionally, Massalski posted one of the highest block rates in the country last season (9%, the 35th-best clip in the country), an indicator of how much he erases inside.

Massalski’s return to the fold is a big step toward repairing last year’s veteran-laden nucleus, which was decimated this offseason by graduation. Even with a makeshift roster that’s been ravaged by injuries early on, Sam Scholl is pushing all the right buttons, extrapolating every last drop of potential out of a roster that once looked barren. Now at full strength with Massalski back in the mix, the undervalued Toreros are primed to expose a fragile and one-dimensional challenger in Fullerton.

Season Record: 15-14