Garcia vs. Vargas: Fight Odds, Notes and Prediction

Who's the favorite and who should you wager on in the big fight between Mikey Garcia and Jessie Vargas on Saturday night?

Casey Olson | Feb 27, 2020

Garcia vs. Vargas: Fight Odds, Notes and Prediction /

DATE/TIME: Saturday 02/29 at 6 p.m. ET (8 p.m. main card)
BROADCAST: DAZN
VENUE: The Ford Center at The Star
LOCATION: Frisco, Texas

Congrats and shoutout to you if you went along for the ride with us last weekend and took Tyson Fury and cashed that plus money either straight up or via knockout. Let’s keep it going this weekend by taking Mikey Garcia via decision in his matchup against the very tough Jessie Vargas.

Why you ask? Let us dive in.

NOTES ON GARCIA:

Garcia is looking to bounce back after suffering his first and only loss after jumping up not one, but two weight classes to face one of the P4P best in Errol Spence Jr.
Although Garcia has fought in several weight classes, this will only be his second at welterweight, as he looks to validate he can contend in the division by rebounding off the Spence Jr. loss with a win against Vargas.
Garcia has had some bling, as he is the former WBO and The Ring featherweight champion, the WBO junior lightweight champion, the WBC lightweight champion, and the IBF junior welterweight, and lightweight champion.

NOTES ON VARGAS:

Vargas is the former WBA and IBO super lightweight champ. He defended his titles twice and then went on to defeat Sadam Ali to win the WBO welterweight title as well, but quickly lost it via UD in his first defense against some guy named Manny Pacquiao
After two consecutive draws, Vargas bounced back in impressive fashion finishing Humberto Soto via TKO at a 150-pound catchweight bout.
As Garcia moves up in weight, Vargas will be dropping down, and come in with a three-inch reach advantage coupled with five inches of height in his favor.

OVERALL ODDS:

As we review the odds pre-weigh in, Garcia opened up in early January at -455 and has been moved to -400 mid-fight week. On the comeback, Vargas opened at +333, and has been bet down to +300.

Jessie Vargas: +300
Mikey Garcia: -400

Over 10.5 rounds: -556
Under 10.5 rounds: +333

WHO AM I TAKING?

I don’t see much shame in having your first ever defeat coming against Errol Spence Jr, though you’d have to believe Garcia will be looking to make a statement Saturday night with a validation win against the very tough Vargas.

Garcia is 32 years young, and as mentioned has held a handful of gold, and has the ability to be up there (not all the way, but up there) in the pound for pound rankings. He has some amazing skill and is very quick, has solidified some experience (226 rounds as a pro), and has power, which has resulted in a 77% KO/TKO finish rate.

Although he packs a punch, five of his last seven bouts have reached the final bell, including his last four. Not helping matters, he will be the smaller boxer in there Saturday night, as he takes another stab at welterweight against the very durable Vargas.

Vargas is 29-2-2, with 11 wins coming via KO/TKO, and although he’s touched the mat, he himself has never been finished in his professional career. His only two defeats come by way of unanimous decision against Timothy Bradley and Manny Pacquiao.

When looking at this matchup, I suspect Vargas’ stance will play a factor in allowing Garcia to score. He typically holds his hands a tad lower than the norm, say chest range, and is open and exposed to body and head shots more than you’d like to see. Garcia will eat this up with his output. With that said, though, Vargas is extremely tough, and will weather the storm and has the ability and size to turn this into a brawl. Additionally, when Vargas smells blood, he cranks it up a couple notches and that’s where we typically see the volume output.

Overall, both guys are great boxers. Garcia has that TKO ability to keep in mind the weight class jump and the fact we will see the size difference here. Even with the size and reach advantage, Vargas most likely won’t be strong enough to finish Garcia so expect an exciting back and forth scrap going over the round total.

Lastly, I’ll note that Vargas hasn’t been super consistent as of late, going 2-1-2 in his last five. Garcia has aligned himself with Eddie Hearn for this one-fight deal. A win could potentially keep him on DAZN via a longer term deal making that money, just like we look to do as we take Garcia via decision Saturday night.

Enjoy the fights!

GARCIA VS VARGAS FIGHT CARD

MAIN CARD:

Welterweight bout: Mikey Garcia vs. Jessie Vargas

WBA Junior Bantamweight title bout: (C) Kal Yafai vs. Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez

WBC Flyweight title bout: (C) Julio Cesar Martinez vs. Jay Harris

Heavyweight bout: Joseph Parker vs. Shawndell Winters

UNDERCARD:

Super Middleweight bout: Diego Pacheco vs. Oscar Rojas

Jr. Middleweight bout: Israil Madrimov vs. Charlie Navarro

Super Middleweight bout: Alexis Espino vs. Delvecchio Savage

Jr. Middleweight bout: Leo Ruiz Acevedo vs. Dennis Knifechief