NBA Best Bets (Mar 4): Can Mavericks End Home ATS Woes vs Pelicans?

The Pelicans and Mavericks meet up in Big D this evening in what should be the game of the night. Who are the sharps betting on and who should you take?

Last night was one of the crazier night's of NBA betting this season. Thankfully we were able to win both our best bets, but it wasn't easy.

The Clippers-Thunder game had a 65-point first quarter but there was very little scoring in the game's other three quarters. The Raptors struggled with the Suns for the majority of the night, but were able to pull away late in the game. 

Celtics bettors experienced one helluva bad beat last night. The Nets, who were down 17 in the fourth, came back and actually won the game in overtime. The Warriors were 15-point underdogs vs. the Nuggets and actually won the game by 16 points. 

What a wild night! Hopefully we can get back to some normalcy tonight. But it's the NBA, so I doubt it.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Detroit Pistons: Thunder -8

The Thunder have been very good to basketball bettors this season, but they have struggled against the spread as of late. Oklahoma City is 1-4 against the number in its last five games. I knew that Oklahoma City's great ATS record would have to regress at some point during the season as bookmakers adjusted their numbers, but the Thunder are still very good against the spread on the road. The Thunder are an NBA-best 21-7 against the spread in road games. 

Tonight, Oklahoma City travels to Detroit to take on the Pistons. Detroit has lost eight of its last 10 and are playing out the stretch like a team that's looking to get to the offseason—an offseason that should see big changes in the Motor City as this team tries to find their way. The Pistons were already struggling with their roster, but this latest injury to Derrick Rose leaves them in a real tough spot. The Thunder should make easy work of them tonight.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks: Pelicans +6

The Pelicans and Mavericks meet up in Big D this evening in what should be the game of the night. The Pelicans come into tonight's game looking to snap a two-game losing streak, while the Mavericks have won three of their last five games. 

Dallas has dominated the season series against their division rivals. The Mavericks have won all three of their games vs. the Pelicans this season and have done so in impressive fashion. They have an average margin of victory of 25 points. However, tonight marks the first time that the Mavericks have seen the new-look Pelicans, with Rookie of the Year candidate Zion Williamson. 

This game opened up with the Mavericks as 6.5-point favorites. 60% of the tickets and 80% of the money are backing the home Mavericks, yet the line has moved to Pelicans +6. That reverse steam signals that sharp money is hitting the Pelicans. The reason why that sharp money is hitting the Pelicans is quite simple: the Mavericks are a terrible ATS team when playing at home.

I have been writing about this all season. Fade Dallas when they are at home. They make their bread on the road. The Mavericks are 12-17-1 against the spread this season at home. That's about the same as the Warriors and Cavaliers. I love the Pelicans to cover the number tonight and I would sprinkle something on the moneyline.

Season Record: 82-66

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