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NFL Mock Draft: Vegas Odds Predict First Round

What would happen if the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft went exactly how the oddsmakers in Vegas predict?

Frankie Taddeo

The 2020 NFL Draft is just hours away. Thousands of mock drafts have been produced so far, but this one is a little different. This mock isn't predicated specifically on team need, value or hype. Below is what Vegas oddsmakers believe is most likely to happen on Thursday night based on betting odds. 

1. Cincinnati Bengals: QB, Joe Burrow, LSU

Oddsmakers in Vegas are no longer posting any betting odds since they have learned it’s a foregone conclusion that the Heisman Trophy-winning LSU quarterback will be the first player off the board.

2. Washington: DE, Chase Young, Ohio State

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The star Buckeye had a stellar junior season that saw him lead the nation with 16.5 sacks, six forced fumbles and 21 tackles for loss in just 12 games. Barring a last-minute shock, Washington will grab the player who many draft experts have rated as the best overall prospect in the entire draft. He is now -1430 to land with Washington at DraftKings sportsbook.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense +550; Defense -900

Young Draft Position Odds Betting: 2.5 (Over +415; Under -875)

3. Detroit Lions: CB, Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State

There’s been growing speculation that the Lions could trade down with a team looking to jump up to acquire either Tua Tagovailoa of Alabama or perhaps Oregon’s Justin Herbert. Okudah is an ideal fit for Matt Patricia’s press coverage scheme. William Hill now has the standout cover corner as a -150 favorite to land with the Lions.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense +400; Defense -600

Okudah Draft Position Odds Betting: 4.5 (Over +115; Under -145)

4. New York Giants: OT, Jedrick Wills, Alabama

The growing speculation that Wills is coveted by Dave Gettleman has become a reality with the oddsmakers. FanDuel sportsbook now has the outstanding offensive tackle out of Alabama as the favorite to be the Giants’ pick at No. 4 at odds of -175. Wills is also now a monster favorite in the “First Offensive Lineman Drafted” market at odds of -188 at William Hill. Meanwhile, at FanDuel sportsbook, the odds on the Giants going with an offensive lineman with their first pick now stands at -400.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -110; Defense -110

Wills Draft Position Odds Betting: 8.5 (Over +160; Under -200)

5. Miami Dolphins: QB, Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

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Despite all the smoke screens that Miami prefers Justin Herbert at No. 5, the front office decides to invest high draft capital on the former Alabama star QB. Tagovailoa is now a -160 favorite to be drafted ahead of Justin Herbert over at FanDuel sportsbook.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -925; Defense +690

Tagovailoa Draft Position Odds Betting: 3.5 (Over -360; Under +280)

6. Los Angeles Chargers: QB, Justin Herbert, Oregon

Herbert has all the tools of a prototypical NFL prospect: size (6-foot-6, 237 pounds), speed (4.46 40-yard dash) and superior arm strength. At FanDuel sportsbook, Herbert is a prohibitive favorite (-950) to be drafted ahead of Utah State’s Jordan Love (+560).

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -700; Defense +535

Herbert Draft Position Odds Betting: 5.5 (Over -110; Under -110)

7. Carolina Panthers: DL, Derrick Brown, Auburn

Brown is the prototypical NFL run-stuffer at 6-foot-5 and 320 pounds that NFL scouts and GMs crave as cornerstones of their interior lines. Brown is a defensive tackle with a rare combination of size and disruptive traits. His overall draft position number (8.5) has seen significant sharp steam with the under now juiced to odds of -200 at FanDuel sportsbook.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense +185; Defense -275

Brown Draft Position Odds Betting: 8.5 (Over +150; Under -200)

8. Arizona Cardinals: OT, Tristan Wirfs, Iowa

The Cardinals made the single biggest splash of the 2020 offseason by stealing superstar wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins from the Houston Texans. Our SI Crystal ball predicts that Arizona will look to stay on the offensive side of the ball (-315). Arizona is favored to draft an offensive lineman (-200) with their first-round pick over at DraftKings sportsbook. Wirfs’ overall draft position market (8.5) has seen sharp action in recent days on the under which now stands at -170 at William Hill.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -315; Defense +225

Wirfs Draft Position Odds Betting: 8.5 (Over +140; Under -170)

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: LB, Isaiah Simmons, Clemson

The odds on his overall draft position projection of 6.5, which once stood with heavy juice (-160) to the under, now stands with moderate juice (-140) in the opposite direction on the over. This strong move coincides with significant support from sharp bettors that arguably the best overall prospect will not be selected by either the Lions at No. 3 or the Giants at No. 4.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense +120; Defense -175

Simmons Draft Position Odds Betting: 6.5 (Over -140; Under +110)

10. Cleveland Browns: OT, Andrew Thomas, Georgia

The odds on Thomas’ overall draft position projection of 10.5, which once stood with juice (-130) to the over, now stands with juice (-130) in the opposite direction on the under at William Hill. At DraftKings, the Browns are prohibitive favorites (-305) to go offensive line in the first round.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -600; Defense +400

Thomas Draft Position Odds Betting: 10.5 (Over +110; Under -130)

11. New York Jets: OT, Mekhi Becton, Louisville

The Jets are favored to go offensive line and they do just that by landing the 6-foot-7, 360-pounder out of Louisville. Becton has seen his draft stock tumble with the oddsmakers adjusting his overall draft position number from 8.5 to 10.5 at DraftKings sportsbook after word broke over the weekend of a recent failed drug test. The Jets have been known to shock fans on draft day and do so once again taking a risk on a talented player with tremendous upside.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -500; Defense +350

Becton Draft Position Odds Betting: 10.5 (Over -125; Under +105)

12. Las Vegas Raiders: WR, Jerry Jeudy, Alabama

The Raiders need star power in their first season in Las Vegas and they get that in one of the best route running wide receivers to come into the NFL in decades. Nearly every book has Jeudy favored as the first wide receiver off the board, slightly ahead of CeeDee Lamb. The Raiders are heavily favored at odds of -167 to go wide receiver with the No. 12 pick at DraftKings sportsbook, with Jeudy’s overall draft position number (12.5) continuing to be shaded strongly to the under at odds of -155 at William Hill.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -225; Defense +170

Jeudy Draft Position Odds Betting: 12.5 (Over +125; Under -155)

13. San Francisco 49ers : WR, CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma

San Francisco is heavily favored (-177) to draft a wide receiver with the No. 13 selection at DraftKings sportsbook. Lamb is the second betting choice in William Hill’s “First Overall Wide Receiver Drafted” market at odds of +130, only slightly behind Jeudy (+120). Lamb has seen his overall draft position number of 13.5, shaded heavily to the under (-175), adjust to 12.5 juiced (-130) to the under at William Hill.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -225; Defense +180

Lamb Draft Position Odds Betting: 12.5 (Over +100; Under -130)

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OT, Josh Jones, Houston

The first real curve ball of the night comes at pick No. 14. Tampa Bay is heavily favored (-400) to go offensive line in an attempt to bolster the protection in front of Tom Brady at DraftKings sportsbook. With four offensive tackles already off the board, the Buccaneers select fast-rising prospect Josh Jones 13 spots earlier than his overall draft position projection at William Hill.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -550; Defense +300

Jones Draft Position Odds Betting: 27.5 (Over -110; Under -110)

15. Denver Broncos: WR, Henry Ruggs III, Alabama

The Broncos are strongly favored (-200) to draft a wide receiver at pick No. 15 in the first round at DraftKings sportsbook. John Elway lands Drew Lock one of the most dynamic wideouts in this year’s draft in Ruggs. Pay attention to the significant move on Ruggs’ overall position market (15.5), which now stands heavily juiced to the under at odds of -280.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -290; Defense +200

Ruggs Draft Position Odds Betting: 15.5 (Over +165; Under -280)

16. Atlanta Falcons: DT, Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina

The oddsmakers at DraftKings sportsbook have the Falcons favored (+100) to go defensive line with their first-round pick. Atlanta wants to add another pass rusher, even with Dante Fowler Jr. and Takk McKinley already on the roster. Kinlaw is solid value this late in the first round.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense +300; Defense -250

Kinlaw Draft Position Odds Betting: 13.5 (Over -125; Under +105)

17. Dallas Cowboys: CB, C.J. Henderson, Florida

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The Cowboys lost top cornerback Byron Jones in free agency. The oddsmakers at DraftKings sportsbook list cornerback (+175) as the favorite for Dallas at pick No. 17. The juice on his overall draft position (16.5) at Bovada now stands at a whopping -600 to the under.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense +200; Defense -250

Henderson Draft Position Betting Odds: 16.5 (Over +350; Under -600)

18. Miami Dolphins (via PIT): OLB, K'Lavon Chaisson, LSU

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Chaisson is a -200 favorite to be drafted ahead of Kenneth Murray (+154) over at FanDuel sportsbook. The Dolphins come to their second of three first-round selections having already added their franchise quarterback. Now it's time to continue to rebuild the roster. Chaisson’s athleticism enables him to be one of the best edge pass rushers in the draft. With Kyle Van Noy on one side and Chaisson on the other, tackles in the AFC East are officially put on notice.

Chaisson Draft Position Odds Betting: 16.5 (Over -160; Under +120)

19. Las Vegas Raiders (via CHI): LB, Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma

Murray grew up idolizing Ray Lewis and his game is very similar, making plays in coverage and against the run. Murray dominated at Oklahoma and he will fit in great with Jon Gruden’s style of defense. Murray is now -500 to be drafted in the first round at DraftKings sportsbook.

Murray Draft Position Odds Betting: 21.5 (Over -120; Under +100)

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR): WR, Justin Jefferson, LSU

In 2019, the 6-foot-1, 203-pound LSU receiver hauled in 111 balls to go along with 18 touchdowns. Jefferson is rising up draft boards and is easily one of the hottest players as we approach the draft on Thursday night. After landing Simmons at No. 9, the Jaguars are enjoying the best draft of any team if the betting odds hold true to form. The juice on the under (-270) on Jefferson’s overall draft position number continues to steam as oddsmakers at Bovada do not believe he makes it beyond his projection of 21.5.

Jefferson Draft Position Odds Betting: 21.5 (Over +180; Under -270)

21. Philadelphia Eagles: WR, Denzel Mims, Baylor

The Eagles are heavily favored (-200) to draft a wide receiver with pick No. 21 at DraftKings sportsbook. Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Nelson Agholor missed a combined 24 games last year. Agholor is now wearing Silver and Black in Las Vegas and Jeffery’s future in Philly is uncertain to say the least. However, the Eagles will be disappointed to see four wide receivers already off the board when they are on the clock. Mims has been rising up draft boards after scoring 28 touchdowns in three seasons at Baylor. He is now nearly a two-to-one favorite to land in the first round. Mims is a -200 favorite to be drafted ahead of Tee Higgins (+154) over at FanDuel sportsbook.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -200; Defense +150

Mims Draft Position Odds Betting: 32.5 (Over +125; Under -195)

22. Minnesota Vikings: CB, Kristian Fulton, LSU

The Vikings are favored to draft a cornerback (-110) with their first of two selections in the first round of the draft. After seeing Okudah and Henderson off the board early, they grab Fulton just a few spots ahead of the oddsmakers’ overall projection number of 24.5. At the NFL Scouting Combine, Fulton clocked in with a 4.46 40-yard dash and 35.5-inch vertical jump, both among the best marks for a cornerback in this year's draft class. Fulton is a -235 favorite to be drafted in the first round at FanDuel sportsbook.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense +140; Defense -170

Fulton Draft Position Odds Betting: 24.5 (Over -110; Under -110)

23. New England Patriots: DE, A.J. Epenesa, Iowa

With a total of 12 draft picks, including four in the top 100, New England will have a chance to replenish a roster that most notably lost arguably the greatest quarterback in league history. After losing Van Noy in free agency, the Patriots begin to reshape their front seven with Epenesa. In 2019, Epenesa recorded 11.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss and four forced fumbles. The oddsmakers have adjusted his original draft position projection of 32.5 down to 29.5 as sharp steam continues to pound his under as a mid-20s selection. Epenesa is now a -175 favorite to be drafted in the first round at FanDuel sportsbook.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense +110; Defense -140

Epenesa Draft Position Odds Betting: 29.5 (Over -110; Under -110)

24. New Orleans Saints: LB, Patrick Queen, LSU

According to the oddsmakers at DraftKings sportsbook, the Saints are favored to either draft a wide receiver or linebacker with their first-round pick. With Justin Jefferson off the board, the Saints turn their attention to the linebacker position. Queen (6-foot, 225 pounds) produced 85 tackles, 12 tackles for losses, three sacks and an interception for the National Champion LSU Tigers.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense +110; Defense -140

Queen Draft Position Odds Betting: 23.5 (Over -110; Under -110)

25. Minnesota Vikings: WR, Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State

We have seen the juice flip in regards to Aiyuk’s overall draft position number in Vegas. Previously the over was juiced to -145 on his projection (32.5). However, we now see an adjusted price of -135 in the opposite direction to the under. The oddsmakers continue to see sharp action that one of the true risers in the draft finds his way into the first round. The Vikings traded talented, but often disgruntled wide receiver Stefon Diggs to Buffalo earlier this offseason. With their second selection in the first round, Minnesota drafts the Arizona State star who caught 65 passes for 1,192 yards and eight touchdowns and shined as a return man in 2019.

Aiyuk Draft Position Odds Betting: 32.5 (Over +105; Under -135)

26. Miami Dolphins: S, Xavier McKinney, Alabama

McKinney is a -190 favorite to be drafted ahead of Trevon Diggs (+146) over at FanDuel sportsbook. Regarded as one of the top safeties, the two-year starter at Alabama was highly productive, racking up five interceptions, two TD returns, six sacks, five forced fumbles and 11 tackles for loss over the last two seasons. The comparisons to Earl Thomas make the Dolphins look to McKinney. McKinney will join a defense that was transformed via free agency with the additions of CB Byron Jones and LB Kyle Van Noy. He will fit in nicely in a potentially dominant secondary that also consists of standout cornerback Xavien Howard.

McKinney Draft Position Odds Betting: 24.5 (Over -110; Under -110)

27. Seattle Seahawks: DE, Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State

The oddsmakers at DraftKings sportsbook list defensive line as the favorite for the Seahawks at No. 27. Gross-Matos is now a prohibitive favorite (-250) to go under his draft position projection number of 27.5. The 6-foot-5, 266-pound edge rusher would be the first Nittany Lion to be selected in the first round since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 overall in 2018. The Seahawks could lose star defensive lineman Jadeveon Clowney to free agency and the talented Nittany Lion helps fill that potential void.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense +135; Defense -180

Gross-Matos Draft Position Odds Betting: 27.5 (Over +160; Under -250)

28. Baltimore Ravens: LB, Zack Baun, Wisconsin

The Ravens are favored to draft a linebacker with their first pick at DraftKings sportsbook. Baltimore enters the 2020 NFL Draft with inside linebacker being one of their most pressing needs. Baun had a 2020 NFL Scouting Combine drug test come back positive for a diluted sample. His draft stock isn't likely to be significantly impacted because the positive test won't count against him under terms of the NFL's new collective bargaining agreement. In 2019, Baun finished among the nation’s leaders with 19.5 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks. He’s shown the ability to play both in the middle and around the edge as a versatile run stopper and pass rusher.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense +110; Defense -140

Baun Draft Position Odds Betting: 32.5 (Over +105; Under -125)

29. Tennessee Titans: OT, Austin Jackson, USC

The oddsmakers list offensive line as the favorite for the Titans at DraftKings sportsbook. The Titans immediately shore up their offensive line in the first round after losing Jack Conklin in free agency to the Cleveland Browns. Jackson is a great athlete with quick feet and excellent agility. The sharp steam (-210) has begun to take shape in his overall draft position market (29.5) as bettors believe Jackson will be the sixth offensive tackle selected among the first 32.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -130; Defense +110

Diggs Draft Position Odds Betting: 29.5 (Over +180; Under -210)

30. Green Bay Packers: WR, Tee Higgins, Clemson

The oddsmakers strongly (-285) believe the Packers will look to get Aaron Rodgers some help on the offensive side of the ball in the opening round at FanDuel sportsbook. The oddsmakers have made drafting a wide receiver the clear betting favorite (-105). The former Clemson star fits the betting bill as the best wideout on the board at No. 30.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense -285; Defense +180

Higgins Draft Position Odds Betting: 32.5 (Over +100; Under -120)

31. San Francisco 49ers: CB, A.J. Terrell, Clemson

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After landing the much-needed star wideout in Lamb at No. 13, the 49ers now aim to shore up the back end of one of the league’s best defenses. Terrell is now a -270 favorite to be drafted in the first round at FanDuel sportsbook.

Terrell Draft Position Odds Betting: 33.5 (Over +100; Under -125)

32. Kansas City Chiefs: CB, Jeff Gladney, TCU

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The oddsmakers at DraftKings strongly (-190) believe the defending Super Bowl champions will look to shore up their secondary with their first-round pick. There’s some steady steam that Gladney will be the final player chosen on Night 1. If this pick comes to fruition, this will mean that no running backs will be drafted in the first round, with the Chiefs passing up on adding Georgia’s D’Andre Swift.

SI Crystal Ball Betting Odds: Offense +120; Defense -190

Gadney Draft Position Odds Betting: 32.5 (Over +115; Under -135)

First Round Recap By The Numbers

  • (6) OTs drafted
  • (6) WRs hear their names among top 32
  • (5) Clemson and Alabama lead the way with the most players drafted
  • (3) QBs come off the board
  • (0) RBs or TEs drafted

MORE FROM SI GAMBLING:

SI's 2020 NFL Draft Prop Betting Guide

SI Gambling's Favorite 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets

When Will D'Andre Swift Be Selected?

When Will Yetur Gross-Matos Be Selected?

When Will Jalen Reagor Be Selected?

When Will Tristan Wirfs Be Selected?

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Frankie Taddeo
FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. 

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