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2020 3M Open: Predictions and Best Bets

The SI Gambling Team breaks down their top wagers for the 3M Open. Plus, our insider Frankie Taddeo shares the sharp action from Vegas & England.

Frankie Taddeo and Ben Heisler

With six events in the books since the COVID-19 shutdown, the PGA will head to Minnesota for the 3M Open, with a slightly watered down field that we have been seeing since the PGA Tour resumed last month.

Matthew Wolff, who won last year's 3M Open in just his third pro start on the Tour, will be among a strong contingent of players ranked in the 2020 FedEx Cup standings teeing off.

Wolff set the 72-hole course record (263) in 2019’s 3M Open and has been up and down in the PGA’s restart missing the cut in three of five tournaments. If he is able to return to his runner-up form from the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he could be an interesting longshot play for those backers who believe he can go back-to-back in the Twin Cities.

Only three of the top 12 players in the World Golf Rankings: Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Tommy Fleetwood will all be in action this week for the 3M Open. Last week’s Memorial winner and new No.1 ranked player in the world Jon Rahm has decided to pass on making a stop in Minnesota this week. Koepka remains a risky investment at short odds as he tries to fight through an apparent knee injury.

Fleetwood comes in at No. 12 and will return to the links for the first time since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March when he missed the cut. Prior to the shutdown, Fleetwood was in tremendous form with four top-22 finishes in six tournaments. The ten-year veteran will be joining Johnson and Tony Finau in one of the featured groups on Thursday.

2020 3M Open Details

Dates: July 23–26, 2020

Course: TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota

TV: GOLF Channel; CBS

Purse: $6,600,000

Dustin Johnson (+995) off his win in the Travelers Championship two weeks ago sits atop the FanDuel Sportsbook odds board. Following Johnson closely are Brooks Koepka (+1500), Tony Finau (+1500), Tommy Fleetwood (+1800), Paul Casey (+2400) and defending Champion Matthew Wolff (+2500).

Our team of gambling experts, which has been red-hot, has compiled their approach to the 3M Open from a betting perspective. Our very own SI Gambling insider Ben Heisler will look for a repeat winner after nailing the outright last week in Rahm at odds of 22/1 to win the Memorial!

In addition, located below is sharp wagering information from both Vegas and London, England.

Let’s take a look at the odds as well as the team’s best bets and more!

2020 3M Open Predictions and Best Bets

Frankie Taddeo, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Vegas Insider (@Frankie_Fantasy)

The Memorial Tournament Sharp Action Breakdown

Metric Gaming’s Golf Desk located in London, England has been on fire with sharp picks since the PGA’s return. At the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial, they just missed out on a top spot score as Colin Morikawa (40/1) lost in a heart-breaker to Daniel Berger in a sudden-death playoff. They followed it up with a superb value play of Tyrell Hatton (56/1) who finished T3 in the RBC Heritage, coupled with a roll-back on Hatton (18/1) who turned in a solid T4 finish in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The sharps in the UK continued their outstanding run as Victor Hovland (30/1) turned in a solid third-place finish in the Workday Charity Open shooting 15-under par.

According to Daniel Banham, Director of Trading, the Metric Gaming team is looking forward to a bounce back from last week’s selections, but cautions that extreme heat could affect the field in the 3M Open this week.

“It was a rough showing for our model last week in the Memorial, but we want to congratulate Jon Rahm on becoming the second Spaniard to ever reach No.1 status after Seve Ballesteros. It should be noted that very warm and humid conditions are expected this week in the Twin Cities. The temperatures are projected to be in the 90’s the entire weekend, which will definitely have an impact on both fitness and stamina.”

There are three players the UK sharps have their sights set on this week in Minnesota.

“Our model really likes Lucas Glover (+3200), who is putting much better and at these attractive odds he is a strong value play after shooting 62 in the final round here last year.

Erik Van Rooyen (+3600) is completely flying under the radar. The 30-year-old South African is very solid tee to green. We should highlight that Van Rooyen attended the University of Minnesota, so this week will feel like a homecoming of sorts.

Finally, our final value play for the 3M lands upon Ryan Moore (+4400) who just continues to lack the attention he deserves for a player with more than $30 million in career earnings since turning pro back in 2005. At healthy odds, our model has identified Moore as extreme value for those looking for a huge payday.”

In addition, Banham highlighted two 72-hole matchup plays that are worthy of garnering attention from sports bettors: Kristoffer Ventura (+130) over Charles Howell III and Troy Merritt (+105) over Charley Hoffman.

Metric Gaming’s Value Plays

Lucas Glover (+3200)

One word: Consistent. Having made the cut in all five tournaments he played in since the PGA restart in June. He has finished inside the Top-38 in all the tournaments, including four in the Top-23 and is primed for a big week according to the sharps from across the pond. The sharps are anticipating the 2014 United States Open Champion, with three career PGA Tour wins, to possibly break through for the first time in 2020.

Erik van Rooyen (+3600)

Van Rooyen, who ranks No. 43 in the world, has two Top-22 finishes to his credit since the PGA restart. The UK sharps find value with the former University of Minnesota star who they envision will feel real comfortable returning to the area of his collegiate days as a Gopher. Metric Gaming sees tremendous value in a golfer who is on the cusp of breaking through for his first career PGA Tour victory, having made the cut in 11 of 15 career events.

Ryan Moore (+4400)

Moore, who has five career PGA Tour victories, comes in at healthy odds of 44/1. He has two top-10 finishes this season and is coming off making the cut for the first time since the PGA resumed last with a T40 finish in the Memorial. The Metric Gaming predictive model is calling for the former UNLV stand out to build off of last week’s effort and potentially offer a healthy return on investment.

Vegas Whispers & Beyond

According to Patrick Eichner, Director of Communications at PointsBet Sportsbook the action on the 3M is as follows:

“To no surprise, our most bet golfer to win the 3M Open this weekend is the favorite, Dustin Johnson. The player receiving the second-most action is Brooks Koepka,” said Eichner.

“Some lesser known names that have received solid attention are Erik Van Rooyen, Sam Burns and Doc Redman.”

In terms of sharp wagers,”some of our sharper clients like to focus on Top 20/30/40 markets rather than outright winner. We have seen a decent amount of sharp action come in Tim Wilkinson (Top 30), Will Gordon (Top 20), and Hudson Swafford (Top 40).”

Some proposition wagers attracting interest involve Head-to-Head matchups at PointsBet.

“We have seen some sharp action on Aaron Wise (vs Wyndham Clark), sparking a price move from -110 to -125. Also have seen sharp action on Ryan Moore (vs Charles Howell III), forcing an adjustment from -125 to -140.”

Shawn Childs, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst (@Shawn__Childs)

BEST BETS TO WIN:

Dustin Johnson (+995)

Johnson played at a high level over eight straight rounds (68, 66, 67, 68, 69, 64, 61, and 67) at the RBC Heritage and Travelers Championship. He finished with a win and a 17th place finish while being 34 strokes under par. After taking two weeks off, Johnson was a no show at the Memorial after shooting back-to-back 80s. An easier track and a weaker field bolds well for a top five finish at the minimum while being the odds on favorite at this event.

Bubba Watson (+3600)

After flashing in the first two events (7th and 52nd) with seven rounds in the 60s, Watson missed three straight cuts. Over his last 36 rounds vs. the players in this event, he ranks first in scoring on par 4s between 450 and 500 yards. This week there are five holes between 445 and 510 yards. Watson played poorly in three (79, 78, and 76) of his six trips around Muirfield. He is a front running type player that will be helped by easier fairways to hit this week.

BEST VALUE PLAY: Patrick Rodgers (+5400)

Over his last 36 holes, Rodgers ranked highly vs. this field in putting. His driver tends to be wild, but easier fairways to hit does improve his confidence this week. He has three missed cuts in his past five tries with his best showing in 2020 coming at the Charles Schwab Challenge (14th). Last week he battled tough conditions at the Memorial, which led to a respectable showing (18th). Rodgers is looking for his first PGA title (151 events).

BEST LONGSHOT: Hudson Swafford (+19000)

Swafford struggled in 2019 due to a foot injury. His game has been relatively boring over his three weeks of action before the Memorial. He played well in three of four rounds at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which led to a 30th place finish with success over three rounds (67, 68, and 69). In 2020, he shot under 70 in 13 of his 23 rounds. 

Ben Heisler, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Editor (@bennyheis)

BEST BET TO WIN: Paul Casey (+2400)

Another case of “ole reliable,” Casey’s first cut of the season came last weekend at the Memorial when he shot a 77 on Day 2. In a similar fashion to Bryson DeChambeau recording a 10 to knock him out of contention, Casey recorded an “8” on a Par 3 on Hole 12 that absolutely sunk his chances to hang around for the weekend.

Before Friday, the worst round he shot all season was a 75 at the Genesis Invitational that knocked him out of the top tier and into 37th.

Casey on the season is ninth in SG: off-the-tee, ninth in SG: approach, and 17th in SG: tee-to-green. He also ranks 14th in greens in regulation percentage. Like Dustin Johnson, his short game and around-the-green game have been what’s hurt him as of late, but with top 10 numbers in strokes-gained total, he’s more than capable of bouncing back and playing well.

BEST VALUE PLAY: Russell Henley (+3600)

Henley has some terrific metrics in his favor for not just this course, but also with his recent history. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks second in SG: total, first in SG: tee-to-green, fourth in SG: ball striking, and first in SG: approach.

His putting? Pretty brutal at 122nd, but I’m willing to ride with Henley’s recent form in tournaments this week. With a cut sandwiched in between his last five outings, Henley has a pair of top 10 finishes at the Honda Classic and Workday Charity Open, as well as strong performances at the Genesis Open and Travelers Championship.

BEST LONGSHOTS:

Charley Hoffman (+11000)

Over his last 36 holes, Rodgers ranked highly vs. this field in putting. His driver tends to be wild, but easier fairways to hit does improve his confidence this week. He has three missed cuts in his past five tries with his best showing in 2020 coming at the Charles Schwab Challenge (14th). Last week he battled tough conditions at the Memorial, which led to a respectable showing (18th). Rodgers is looking for his first PGA title (151 events).

Cameron Davis (+21000)

Davis has missed four consecutive cuts and is a huge wild card heading into the 3M Open. But if you look closer, a substantial reason is that his putter has been dreadful. Over his last 24 rounds, his putting ranks 118th amongst golfers on tour in SG: putting.

If we look at his other useful metrics, it's perplexing as to why he hasn't been better. He's fourth in SG: total, ninth in SG: off-the-tee, 12th in SG: around-the-green.

Click here for Ben’s full list of longshot and value bets for the 3M Open.

Alex White, SI Fantasy & Gambling Contributor / Full Time Fantasy (@coachwhiteDFS)

BEST BETS TO WIN:

Russell Henley (+3300)

Henley is my favorite pick to win this tournament. Last time out he managed a 7th place finish in a much tougher field. I can vividly remember him missing 5-6 putts inside 4 ft at the Workday Charity Open. These greens are the same grass type but they are much slower. If the putter is in sync this week with his irons we will have our 3M Open champion.

Doc Redman (+4100)

The wind played a major role in the performance of many golfers. Redman definitely fell victim to the harsh environment. His irons weren’t the question mark last week though. It was the short game that he hemorrhaged 9 strokes between putting and around the green statistics. This week he looks to get back on track on a pure ball-strikers course. With much slower greens he should have more opportunities to take advantage of his excellent iron plays.

BEST VALUE PLAY: Dylan Fritelli (+8000)

The wind played a major role in the performance of many golfers. Redman definitely fell victim to the harsh environment. His irons weren’t the question mark last week though. It was the short game that he hemorrhaged 9 strokes between putting and around the green statistics. This week he looks to get back on track on a pure ball-strikers course. With much slower greens he should have more opportunities to take advantage of his excellent iron plays.

Roy Larking, SI Gambling & Fantasy Contributor (@SIGambling)

BEST BET TO WIN: Dustin Johnson (+1100)

After a disappointing missed cut at the Memorial Tournament last week, Dustin Johnson will find the track at TPC Twin Cities more to his liking. One of the longer courses on tour this season, at 7468 yards, big hitters will have an advantage off the tee during the 3M Open. Johnson is in that group and he will be ready to grip and rip it to relieve some frustration after shooting two rounds of 80 last week. Bet on Johnson rebounding with a generous +1100 moneyline.

TOP 5 FINISH: Brooks Koepka (+300)

While he has endured a difficult run, during three of his first four tournaments since the restart, I like Brooks Koepka getting back on track this week. Koepka posted a 7th place finish at the RBC Heritage but is looking to rebound after finishing 62nd at the Memorial Tournament last week. TPC Twin Cities sets up well for Koepka as he is averaging 307.3 yards off the tee and will be able to use his driver on most holes. Koepka is No. 6 in the World Golf Rankings.

TOP 10 FINISH: Lucas Glover (+280)

Lucas Glover posted a -16 (268) and finished tied for seventh in the inaugural 3M Open tournament last year. That includes a blistering 62 during the final round as he made ten birdies and just one bogey. Glover has made the cut in five tournaments since the restart and finished in the top 23 during four of those events. Glover has shot 69 or lower during 13 of his last 20 rounds. I like him to finish in the top ten in a wide open field at TPC Twin Cities this week.

FAVORITE MATCHUP PLAY: Tony Finau (-115) over Tommy Fleetwood (-105)

After skipping the Workday Charity Open two weeks ago, Tony Finau finished eighth in the Memorial Tournament last week. Finau was tied for first with Ryan Palmer after two rounds but dropped back after a 73 on Saturday and a 78 on Sunday. Tommy Fleetwood is playing his first PGA event since the pause back in March. Fleetwood posted a third place finish during the Honda Classic in February but it’s wise to wonder how the long layoff will affect his game.

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Frankie Taddeo and Ben Heisler
FRANKIE TADDEO AND BEN HEISLER

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