NFL Week 7 - Best Bets Against the Spread From the SI Gambling Team

The SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at SI's MMQB weigh in on their top best bet against the spread for Week 7 in the NFL.

Over the course of this year's 2020 NFL season, the SI Gambling team, along with a few of our friends from the SI MMQB NFL team are putting our collective heads together to pick our top game of the week against the spread. We'll keep track over the course of the year for bragging rights as well as transparency. While not quite our Week 5 performance (9-4-0 ATS), our team collectively had our third straight winning week at 7-6-0 ATS, putting the squad at 44-32-1 ATS overall at just under 58%!

Over at SI PRO, the "Vegas Whispers" NFL betting plays and information from SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo have now gone 38-25-0 ATS as well as 10-1 on Thursday Night Football. Yesterday was the first loss against the spread as the Eagles (-4.5) won the game outright but didn't cover. However, SI PRO members were alerted to three prop bet plays hours before the game that went 3-0.

Before checking out the team's selections and "best bets," here are the latest Week 7 NFL lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.

NFL Best Bets for Week 7

Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.

Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (+6) | TOTAL: 45

I get that the Bears seem fraudulent to most fans. Heck, even here at Sports Illustrated, our own Conor Orr wrote about how insanely lucky they've been all season!

The reality, however, is that the defense is legitimately terrific. They've only allowed four passing touchdowns all season, Kyle Fuller and Jaylen Johnson may be the top two CB tandem in the NFL, and then there's Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn up front to destroy the quarterback.

Now, the Bears offensive line is teetering on disaster, and it won't be much easier with Aaron Donald coming to eat their lunch in prime time, but Nick Foles has actually learned to get rid of the football quickly in Chicago. Via Pro Football Focus, 64.4% of Foles' passes have been thrown in less than 2.5 seconds. 

The Rams have been bum-slayers so far in 2020, beating up on the NFC East, and frankly who hasn't? But this Chicago defense won't get dominated by the likes of Jared Goff and company, even on the road.

BEST BET: Chicago Bears +6

Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)

Buffalo Bills (-12) at New York Jets | TOTAL: 45

I got back to my winning ways last week after jumping back on the “Auto-Fade” of Adam Gase and I now stand at 5-1 ATS in this section. I REFUSE to get off this train until it fails and I do not see that happening this week when the best team in the AFC East heads into MetLife Stadium. The Jets “quietly” traded away their starting nose tackle Steve McLenden (and team defensive captain) to Tampa Bay giving them even less NFL talent on the defensive side of the ball. Expect Josh Allen to have a field day on Sunday and the Bills to possibly cover this number by halftime, same as Miami did last week. Lay the wood against the ‘only’ winless team in the NFL who is also 0-6 ATS.

BEST BET: Buffalo Bills -12 - Now down to 10.5

Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (-1 ) | TOTAL: 46

The Dallas Cowboys appeared to hit rock bottom on Monday Night, an ugly loss home loss to the Cardinals has players going to the media saying that they felt they were not coached properly. Andy Dalton looked terrible and all hope is gone in Big D, insert the Washington Football Team right on time, the Cowboys make their bread vs NFC teams, they are very good at pulling off wins vs bad teams. Dallas will struggle and look bad at times but they will win a close game.

BEST BET: Dallas Football Team +1 (They don’t even deserve to be called Cowboys)

Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)

Buccaneers at Raiders (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

The Buccaneers and Raiders are both coming off big wins, as the Bucs beat up Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week while Las Vegas took out the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium before their bye week. I’m going with Tom Brady and the Bucs here, as their defense is playing at a high level (holding Rodgers to fewer than four fantasy points is quite an accomplishment) and the offense is getting healthier. Rob Gronkowski has been more involved in the pass attack lately too, which is good for both the Buccaneers and fantasy fans. I can see Tampa Bay putting up a nice total in a game that featured an over/under of 52, and I’ll take them minus the points.

BEST BET: Buccaneers (-3.5) - Currently off the board

Dr. Roto (@DrRoto)

Green Bay (-3.5) at Houston | TOTAL: 57

Green Bay comes in having been shellacked by Tampa Bay 38-10 in Week 6. QB Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst games of his entire career throwing for only 160 yards and 2 INTs. Are you worried about Green Bay’s horrible run defense? You should be since Green Bay’s run defense is the second worst in the league. However, the good news is that the worst team is the Houston Texans! This game comes down to two major factors: 

1) Packers running back Aaron Jones will outplay Texans RB David Johnson. 

2) Packers CB Jaire Alexander will shut down Texans WR Will Fuller but Texans CB Bradley Roby will not be able to shut down Packers WR Davante Adams. I think this will be a high scoring game for sure, but do you really think there is a chance that Rodgers doesn’t rebound against Houston’s defense?

BEST BET: Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Bill Enright (@BillEnright)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (-1) | TOTAL 50.5

Ryan Tannehill O/U 1.5 TD Passes (-180)

After betting on the Cowboys to cover the spread two weeks in a row and falling to 1-6 on the year, I’m embarrassed. I’m down right ashamed. So I have to switch things up. Instead of picking a game, I’m picking a player prop. In five games this year, Ryan Tannehill has thrown for two or more touchdowns in all but one outing. He’ll get at least two against the Steelers in a battle of two undefeated teams, one that DraftKings SportsBook expects a lot of points considering the Over/Under is set at 50.5

BEST BET: Ryan Tannehill OVER 1.5 Touchdowns (-180)

Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) | TOTAL: 49

Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars (1-5) travel to the west coast after getting crushed 34-16 at home by the Detroit Lions last week. Following a 27-20 Week 1 win, against the Indianapolis Colts as +7.5 home dogs, Jacksonville has lost five straight by a 161-98 combined count. Justin Herbert and the Chargers (1-4) return home to SoFi Stadium following two road games and a BYE last week. Blowing big leads has been a problem for Los Angeles. The Bolts were up by 17 points, during their last two games, but lost to Tampa Bay (38-31) and New Orleans (23-20 OT). I don’t see that happening against Jacksonville.

Both teams are riding a long losing streak but Los Angeles has faced a tougher schedule. The Chargers four losses were by a 28-23.5 average final score against teams with a 15-8 record. The Jaguars last four losses, against teams with a 7-15 record, have been by a 32-17 average final margin. Cincinnati rookie QB Joe Burrow recorded his first NFL win when the Bengals beat the Jaguars 33-25 back in Week 4. Fellow rookie Herbert has posted 1,195 passing yards over four starts, with 9 TD and 3 INT, and this is a great spot for his first NFL win. 

Lay the -7.5 points at the DraftKings Sportsbook and bet on Los Angeles.

BEST BET: Los Angeles Chargers -7.5

Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-1.5)

If this game was played exactly one week ago the Patriots would have been around -4 favorites and the entire public would be on them. Instead, we saw a banged up San Francisco 49ers team come out and get a must win game at home against the Rams while the Patriots had an extreme dud game at home versus Denver. Don’t bet against Bill Belichick coming off a loss at home against the quarterback he traded away. New England wins this game running away.

BEST BET: New England Patriots (-1.5)

Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (-1) | TOTAL: 44.5

This has to be put up or shut up time for Dallas. There's no more time to waste, even in a pathetic NFC East.

Andy Dalton had a rough week against the Cardinals, but the matchup against Washington is much more advantageous, especially with the amount of talent at wide receiver. 

Zeke Elliott gets a dream bounce-back spot against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and because the public has finally had enough of Dallas letting them down (0-6-0 ATS), they're now dogs in a game they should easily win.

It's now or never for, "them Cowboys." 

BEST BET: Dallas Cowboys +1

Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)

Green Bay (-3.5) at Houston | TOTAL: 57

BEST BET: Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)

Bills at Jets (+12) | TOTAL: 48

After the Dolphins easily covered against the Jets with my best bet last week, I believe the trend continues again this week and I'll pick on the Jets again. The Bills come to town and with a chip on their shoulder after dropping two straight against the Titans and Chiefs, two teams that sit in the top-7 favorites to win this year's Super Bowl. 

The Jets, well you know, are now 0-6 SU and ATS, and sit ranked dead last in points scored (75) and 30th in points allowed (185). I actually believe this Jets team is worse now than they were in Week 1, when they lost to this Bills team by 10. Coming into this game, the Jets offensive line is pretty beat up too, with guard Alex Lewis (shoulder) and tackles Mekhi Becton (shoulder) and Chuma Edoga (calf) all not 100% and sitting out practice this week. Top receiver Jamison Crowder has also been limited, so I'll take the Bills by two touchdowns or more for me.

BEST BET: Buffalo Bills -12

Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)

Steelers at Titans (-1) | TOTAL: 50.5

I don’t have to recap the Titans’ life on the edge so far, or the fact that they needed a 94-yard touchdown run, among other things, to bail them out against Houston last week. I do want to highlight the fact that the Steelers match up particularly well with this Titans offense. Pittsburgh has been dominant—historically dominant—on first downs: Opponents are facing an average second-down distance of 9.22 yards. 

And the Titans, even with Ryan Tannehill’s emergence, are near the bottom of the league in third-and-long (6+ yards) conversion rate: 21.7%, 26th in the NFL. We saw it last week against a Browns offense that’s similar stylistically to the Titans; if you keep them behind the chains, they’ll struggle. The Steelers have kept everyone behind the chains this season, and if they do so in Nashville they’ll have an easy victory.

BEST BET: Pittsburgh Steelers (+1)

Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)

Jaguars at Chargers (-7.5) | TOTAL: 49

I like the Chargers this week, which says just as much about what I think of their opponents. The Jaguars started the season surprisingly strong, with the win over Indy and the tight game in Tennessee, but the truth is they just haven’t been a good football team on either side of the ball. 

The Chargers, meanwhile, are better than their 1–4 record indicates, given that they’ve had fourth quarter leads against the Chiefs, Bucs and Saints. I think they’ll be motivated not just to win but to put Jacksonville away, which can be an important factor when I look at lines of more than a touchdown and worry about possible backdoor covers. Justin Herbert has earned high marks for his play, but is still searching for his first win. I think the Chargers, coming out of their bye week, will be ready to play a full 60 minutes to put an inferior opponent away by two scores.

BEST BET: Los Angeles Chargers -7.5

NAME	WEEK 7 PICK	RECORD/LAST WEEK W/L
Ben Heisler	BEARS +6	4-2 (W)
Frankie Taddeo	BILLS -12	5-1 (W)
Corey Parson	COWBOYS +1	3-2 (W)
Michael Fabiano	BUCS -3.5	4-2 (W)
Dr. Roto	PACKERS -3.5	5-1 (W)
Bill Enright	Aaron Jones O78.5 RUSHING YARDS	1-5 (L)
Roy Larking	CHARGERS -7.5	5-1 (W)
Steve Renner	PATRIOTS -1.5	2-4 (L)
Ian Ritchie		3-3 (L)
Scott Atkins	PACKERS -3.5	3-3 (L)
Casey Olson	BILLS -12	4-1-1 (W)
Gary Gramling	STEELERS +1	2-4 (L)
Mitch Goldich	CHARGERS -7.5	3-3 (L)
	LAST WEEK'S RECORD (ATS): 7-6-0	COLLECTIVE RECORD (ATS): 44-32-1

Check out this week's staff picks from the MMQB Team!