SI

2020-2021 RSM Classic - PGA Predictions and Best Bets

The SI Gambling team of golf experts breaks down their top wagers for this week’s RSM Classic at Sea Island Resort.

Alex White and Ben Heisler

Fresh off Masters week, we are back at it once again looking for the best value on the board at the RSM Classic.

However, we have to point out that we're coming in a little richer than we were last week at this time!

Sea Island, located on St. Simons Island in Georgia is host to the event following the Masters Tournament. This leads to more European golfers staying close and teeing it up just a few days later. In fact, this could be the best field in RSM history.

This tournament is different than most. Two courses will be played this week. We have the Seaside course playing as a par 70 and the Plantation course playing as a par 72. Both playing around 7,000 feet give or take.

This week is all about finding golfers who keep the ball in play and putt better than average on Bermuda greens. Easy recipe for success right?

It is worth noting that DraftKings Sportsbook is offering first round leader bets. The clear advantage goes to the players on the Plantation course given it has two additional par 5’s to score on. Many books don’t offer first round leader bets for this event so hop on while it’s still up.

This week’s favorite is Webb Simpson at +850, followed up by Tyrell Hatton +1600, Sungjae Im +2200, and Tommy Fleetwood at +2500. The cream can rise to the top at this event but wins are no guarantee for the clear cut favorites. Ask Tyler Duncan, last year's winner who came in at odds over +20000.

Don't sleep on the mid tier players this week. You have some household names like Kevin Kisner at +4500 and Brian Harman at +4500. Even Justin Rose at the same odds +4500 is super interesting.

With a stronger field than expected, who will our analysts pick this week? Can we keep this hot streak rolling? Keep on reading to get the Best Bets and more. . .

The Breakdown: The RSM Classic

Dates: November 19th-22nd

Course: Seaside Island Resort (Seaside & Plantation)

Par: 70 & 72

Yardage: 7,000+

Greens: Bermuda

Let’s take a look at the current odds from DK Sportsbook. As well as the best bets and more. . .

The RSM Classic Predictions and Best Bets

Alex White, SI Gambling and DFS Analyst @coachwhitedfs

***Always hedge your outright bets with a Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bet.***

BEST BET TO WIN

Webb Simpson +850

Every once in a while it makes sense to play the favorite. This is one of those weeks. 

Webb comes in off a B-game performance at The Masters and still managed a top 10 finish. He now tees off in a much weaker field with great course history. In his last two attempts at the RSM he has finished 2nd and 3rd. Is this tournament becoming his second Wyndham?

Webb ranks number one in my statistical model by a landslide. My key stats this week are putting (17th), ball striking (1st), par 4’s 400-450 yards (2nd), and proximity 150-175 yards (11th). Don't overthink this play, pay up and move on.

BEST VALUE PLAY

Sebastian Munoz +4500

Munoz is coming in en fuego! The kid has rattled off 10 straight made cuts, three top 10 finishes, three top 20 finishes including last week's incredible debut performance at the Masters. He has very few issues in his golf game and should be heavily considered at his current odds. 

Last season he made his mark here with a 3rd place finish. If you don’t want to place an outright on him his top 5 odds are currently +900. Hop on now before these lines move.

BEST LONGSHOT

J.T. Poston +8000

Putting is the key to success at the RSM and Poston can be one of the best putters on tour. Plus, he prefers Bermuda greens. Ding ding!

I won’t put much stock into his missed cut at The Masters last week. It was his first attempt and the kid wasn’t prepared for the challenge at hand. This week he comes to a much easier course with some previous experience. Last season he tore these greens up, gaining 6.6 strokes putting. He lost strokes through approach and around the greens. If he can clean up his iron play he can contend at this tournament. Don’t sleep on The Postman!

FAVORITE TOP 10 BET

Denny McCarthy +750

McCarthy is in the same boat as J.T. Poston. If putting is the key to success at the RSM, why wouldn’t we play the best putter on Tour? McCarthy has quietly been showing some improvements in his iron play as well. In his last four events he has gained strokes through approach two times and both of those tournaments ended in top 10 finishes. The other two where he didn’t bring his iron game, those tournaments resulted in respectable made cuts. 

Bottom line, if his irons show up, watch out for another weekend push.

BONUS*

Top 20 Finish - Scott Piercy +500

***

Ben Heisler, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Editor (@bennyheis)

BEST BETS TO WIN

Sungjae Im +2200

Up until Masters Week, Im has started to play much-improved golf without much fanfare.

He hasn’t missed a cut since mid-August and while the results can vary (2nd at the Masters to 50th at the Houston Open the week before), I think this is where you can jump on-board heading into late November. 

Remember, Sungjae had a three week stretch in March when he won the Honda Classic, finished third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then 10th at the restart at the Charles Schwab Classic. When he gets hot, he burns up the course.

BEST VALUE PLAY(S)

Jason Kokrak +3500

Kokrak burned many of us last week, but the numbers over the last 24 rounds are too good to ignore. Kokrak ranks 2nd in SG: total, 6th in SG: off-the-tee, and 2nd in SG: putting.

He fell apart at Augusta National, and also missed the cut at the Shriners a few weeks back. But, he seems to play even better following a MC. Kokrak won the CJ Cup the following week after the Shriners, and after missing the cut at the PGA Championship, he gained 8.6 strokes at the Wyndham to finish T15.

ADDITIONAL VALUE BET

Lee Westwood +9000

BEST LONGSHOT(S)

Kristoffer Ventura +15000

Amongst the entire field, did you know that according to Fantasy National, Ventura ranks number one in DraftKings points gained? Did you also know that Ventura ranks 3rd in SG: off-the-tee and 13th in SG: putting over his last 24 rounds?

Ventura at 150/1 presents enormous value despite the scorecard not necessarily agreeing with the numbers. He finished T64th at the Houston Open after missing the cut in back-to-back tournaments at the Bermuda and Shriners. If he can get a handle on his irons, there’s little to no reason why he can’t be back in contention this week.

***

Roy Larking, SI Gambling & Fantasy Contributor (@StatsGuru6)

BEST BET TO WIN

Webb Simpson +850

Last week I noticed how close Dustin Johnson (T6, T4, T10 and T2) had been to winning the Masters tournament. That was the deciding factor used when I bet on him to finally claim a Green Jacket. I am going to use that as the deciding factor again this week and I am picking Webb Simpson to win the 2020 RSM Classic. 

Simpson finished second at this event last year (lost in a playoff to Tyler Duncan) and he was third two years ago. Following a T10 at the Masters, Simpson has four top 10 finishes during the last seven tournaments he has played.

BEST LONGSHOT PLAY

Mackenzie Hughes +7000

Returning to the site of his lone PGA victory to date, Hughes won this event back in 2016. It was a test of nerves, as Hughes posted a birdie on the third extra hole to win a five-player playoff. Apart for the U.S. Open in September, Hughes has made the cut in 13 of his last 14 tournaments. That includes a T7 at Vivint Houston Open and solo third place finish at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship this season. 

He closed out the 2019-20 season with solid results at the Tour Championship (14) the BMW Championship (T10) and a T13 at the Northern Trust.

Check out the DFS golf contests offered every week at DraftKings!

TOP 20 FINISH

Sebastian Munoz +225

Playing well recently, Munoz finished in the top 20 during the last three tournaments he has entered. All high-level events, he finished T19 at the Masters, T14 at the ZOZO Championship and T9 at the CJ Cup. Munoz was in the hunt for a top 10 at the Masters before shooting a 75 in the final round on Sunday. He has made the cut in ten straight tournaments and closed out the 2019-20 season with T8 finishes at the Tour Championship and the BMW Championship. Missing the playoff by just stroke – Munoz finished solo third during this event last year.

NATIONALITY PROP – TOP ASIAN PLAYER

Sungjae Im -120

As part of the RSM Classic prop betting options offered at DraftKings - the Nationality prop has caught my eye this week. 

Following his second place tie at the Masters, Sungjae Im (-120) is posted as the favorite to finish as the top Asian player. C. T. Pan, who finished a respectable T7 at the Masters, is second with a (+350) moneyline price. Looking at the tournament winner odds – there is a large gap between those two players. 

Im (+2200) is the third favorite while Pan (+7000) is listed at 22nd overall. Im looked unflappable at the Masters and I am backing him over Pan.

Asian Player Longshots: Xinjun Zhang (+750), Sung Kang (+900), Satoshi Kodaira (+2000) and CK.J. Choi (+2220) 

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Alex White and Ben Heisler
ALEX WHITE AND BEN HEISLER

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