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Horse Racing Best Bets of the Week: 2021 Tropical Turf Stakes

SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo handicaps the Tropical Turf Stakes set to run on Saturday from Gulfstream Park, including the latest odds and his best bets.

Frankie Taddeo

The SI Gambling Horse handicapping experts had a great day at the track in the 2020 Travers Stakes when Tiz the Law came through in impressive fashion, helping our team crush the Exacta (8/1) and the Trifecta (36/1) after Caracaro & Max Player both hit the board!

In July of 2020, the team scored in the Blue Grass Stakes hitting the Exacta (12/1), Trifecta (60/1) and Superfecta (443/1). Now, the boys are back with some sharp opinions for this Saturday.

In October of 2020, SI Fantasy PRO members scored when Dayoutoftheoffice ($7.80) crossed the line first in the Frizette Stakes with Vequist in second hitting the Exacta cold ($8.20).

In November of 2020 , those of us here at SI Gambling enjoyed another solid score in the Desi Arnaz Stakes when Astute ($12.20) crushed the field by seven lengths with Queengol filling out the exacta at odds of 31/1.

Also in November, the SI Gambling handicapping team stayed red hot when all three of the top projected selections hit the board in the Ontario Derby helping everyone cash their trifecta tickets at odds of 72/1!

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On Saturday, we'll put our horse racing formula back in action with the first “Race of the Week” for 2021 as we head to Gulfstream Park. Among the 11 races on the card is the $100,000 Tropical Turf Stakes drawing a field of nine.

The morning-line favorite is Chad Brown’s Analyze It (2/1) colt who will look to rebound from his 8th-place finish in a field of nine in the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (G1) at Keeneland back in October when he weakened terribly in the lane. Sitting on the sidelines since November, 2018 when he finished third in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), he won the Red Bank Stakes (G3) at Monmouth back in September first off the near two-year layoff. It should be noted that top jockey Irad Ortiz is saddled with the highest weight (124) of any of the entrants.

Admission Office (7/2), a son of Point of Entry for trainer Brian Lynch, will look to make it two victories in a row after winning the Louisville Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs back in June at odds of nearly 4/1. Admission Office, who hit the board in 11 of 14 career races, is right in the mix on Saturday.

Frostmourne (9/2), a son of Speightstown, heads in as the third overall betting choice off an allowance win at Churchill Downs back in November when he geared down in the lane and won by three-lengths at 9/1 odds.

Tropical Turf Stakes (G3)

Racetrack: Gulfstream, Florida

Date: Saturday, January 9, 2021

Purse: $100,000

Distance: 1M, Turf

Race: 10

Post Time: 4:49 pm EST / 1:49 am PST

HORSES OF NOTE: Listed by post number, name, and odds:

#3 Ride a Comet (5/1) - It is always a dangerous betting proposition fading Chad Brown, but the morning line favorite has been a money burner and I can't put him on top at a likely short price. The formula lands on Mark Casse’s entry here who is on a three-race winning streak - winning two Grade 2 races in his last three efforts. Pick

#6 Analyze It (2/1) - This is more of defensive play but coming off his last effort in the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes I will use several horses to fill out the exacta. If he runs back to form he will be right in the mix. Threat

#5 Frostmourne (9/2) - This colt looks like he should gun to the front and be the controlling early speed - just head of last year’s winner of the race #7 Tusk. The formula sees him possibly hanging on for a piece to complete the exacta or the trifecta. Underneath

Tropical Turf Stakes Formula Rankings

  • #3 Ride a Comet
  • #6 Analyze It
  • #5 Frostmourne
  • #2 Casa Creed
  • #1 Admission Office
  • #4 Doctor Mounty
  • #7 Tusk
  • #8 Hay Dakota
  • #9 Flying Scotsman

Tropical Turf Stakes Breakdown

According to the formula this is a tough race but still finds value. My top play is #3 Ride a Comet (5/1) who I will use over #6 Analyze It (2/1) and #5 Frostmourne (9/2). I will also use #2 Casa Creed (8/1) and #1 Admission Office (7/2) on the bottom to round out the trifecta.

Exacta BOX: 3-6-5-2

$1 wager: $12

TOP Trifecta Part-Wheel: 3 with 5,6 with 1,2,4,5,6

$1 wager: $8

PROTECTIVE Trifecta Part-Wheel: 3,5 with 3,5,6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6

$1 wager: $15

All wagers display ticket cost. All bettors should adjust wager amounts based upon bankroll

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Good Luck!

Published
Frankie Taddeo
FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. 

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