2021 NFL Conference Championship Round - Best Bets from the SI Gambling Team

Members of the SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at the MMQB share their best bets against the spread for the conference championship round of the NFL Playoffs.

NFL Best Bets: Conference Championship Round

Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.

UPDATED 2020/2021 OFFICIAL DOCUMENTED VEGAS WHISPERS RECORD

2020 NFL: 70-52-1 | 2020 CFB: 32-21 | 2020 MLB: 79-60

NFL Regular Season: 68-47-1 (59%)

NFL PLAYOFFS: 2-5-0

2020 CFB OVERALL: 32-21 (61%)

2020 CFB BOWLS: 7-2-0 (78%)

2020 MLB: 79-60 +16.66 UNITS

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2020/2021 VEGAS WHISPERS RESPECTED MONEY PLAYS: 70-39-3 (64%) - Reserved for Member Discord group only)

2020: 36-22-3 (62%)

2021: 34-17-0 (67%)

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EDITOR'S NOTE: ALL ODDS ARE SELECTED VIA DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

While it would be easy to jump on the under for the likelihood of snow at “the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field,” I’m backing the number because of the actual talent on the field.

With Antonio Brown ruled out and Mike Evans nowhere near 100%, I’m not convinced Tom Brady and the Bucs will be able to move the ball effectively on Green Bay’s defense. The Packers have given up no more than 25 points since November 29th and that was in large part due to the primetime game against the Bears being over by halftime. They have not allowed a team to score more than 18 points since December 13th. While Tampa Bay comes in having scored an average of 34.8 points in the midst of a six game winning streak, most of those points came against teams like Atlanta, Minnesota and Detroit, who ranked towards the bottom in defensive efficiency.

With cold weather, potentially snow and wind, and a defense ready to pin their ears back and pressure Brady under center, it's not a bad way for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to stroll to Super Bowl LV.

BEST BET: TB @ GB UNDER 52

Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)

For Frankie's "best bet," check out his Vegas Whispers Sharp Betting Breakdown for Buccaneers vs. Packers.

Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) | TOTAL: 54.5

The AFC contest we have all been waiting for is finally upon us, and I think it’s safe to say that the two best teams in the conference are playing in this game. The total has gone up from the opening number, and Buffalo is an "over team," especially in games on the road. A healthy Mahomes will push the Bills to keep up which I think they will. I see a close game that goes over the total in overtime.

BEST BET: BUF @ KC OVER 54.5

Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) | TOTAL: 54.5

BEST BET: Bills +3

Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers (13-5) are on the road for a third straight week following a 30-20 win over the Saints in New Orleans last week. Tampa Bay was held to 316 total yards on offense but the Bucs’ defense forced four turnovers. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (14-3) are playing a second straight home game after an impressive 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams. Rodgers threw two touchdown passes and added a 1-yard rushing score. The Green Bay defense held the Rams’ offense to just 244 total yards.

These teams met back in Week 6 and the Buccaneers blasted the Packers 38-10 in Tampa. Rodgers was sacked four times, intercepted twice, and it was the only game this season that he was held to zero touchdown passes. Expect Rodgers to post much better numbers in this game. The Green Bay defense has improved since the first meeting and they’ve allowed just 16 points per game over the last four contests. I also like how Green Bay racked up 188 total rushing yards last week. Packers advance to Super Bowl 55.

Green Bay is a -3.5 point favorite at DraftKings – Bet on the Packers to cover.

BEST BET: Packers -3.5

Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

BEST BET: Packers -3.5

Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

BEST BET: Packers -3.5

Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

BEST BET: Packers -3.5

Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

This line feels like an overreaction to the team’s meeting in October, when Aaron Rodgers threw two of his five interceptions on the season in the first 20 minutes (one was returned for a TD, the other set up the Bucs offense at the two-yard line).

In the Rodgers era, the Packers are 12-6-1 against the spread in the postseason, 6-2 ATS as postseason favorites of a field goal or more, and 4-2 ATS as postseason favorites at Lambeau.

BEST BET: Packers -3.5

Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) | TOTAL: 54.5

The Chiefs have done a miserable job covering spreads this season, but they are the best team in football and I’m happy to take them whenever I only need to lay three points. I know record in close games is often an indicator that a team’s success is unsustainable, but in this case I just trust this team to find a way to win close games. We’ve seen them get ahead early and hang on; we’ve seen them fall behind and come back. Either way they almost always end up on top.

I know a three-point spread is real, but I expect them to win the game and I can’t worry too much about some unusual score resulting in a win without covering.

The Bills are of course a worthy opponent, but in their two playoff wins they have not looked like the all-powerful force they were coming down the stretch in the regular season. I think rain and cold (maybe not Lambeau cold but I wouldn’t want to play at night in the 30s in rain) could make this a sloppier, uglier game than the shootout we’d envision on a Sunday in October, and I trust Kansas City’s coaching and personnel to figure out what it takes to get the job done.

The AFC’s best team will represent the conference in the Super Bowl, and—in what qualifies as good news for Chiefs bettors this season—they don’t need a blowout for that bet to cash.

BEST BET: Chiefs -3

UPDATE* - Line has now moved to Chiefs -3.5

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LAST WEEK'S POSTSEASON RECORD ATS: 4-5-0

COLLECTIVE POSTSEASON RECORD ATS: 6-10-2