NBA Daily Betting Rundown: Thursday, March 11 - Look for the Suns to Keep Shining in Portland

SI Gambling analyst Ben Heisler shares several notable NBA first half betting trends in the NBA, along with his top bet for tonight's game between the Suns and Trail Blazers.

Before we dive into picks, props and leans for this evening, let's take a look at a few noteworthy trends heading into the second half of the season.

Can the Utah Jazz keep up their record-setting pace?

Heading into their first action of the second half on Friday, Utah is 27-9 overall on the season, including a terrific 25-11-0 (69.4%) against the spread. From January 8 through the middle of February, they were literally the best team in the last 31 years against the spread going 20-1-0 ATS.

Utah started the season 22-7-0 ATS. Since February 18, the Jazz have gone 3-4-0 ATS. As we touched on several weeks ago, this was expected after the sportsbooks continued to lose to Utah bettors and begun to slightly inflate their number. According to TeamRankings' database, if the Jazz were to keep this pace, they would finish with the highest cover percentage since 2003.

Best and Worst Covering Teams in 2020-2021

After Utah (25-11-0), the Suns are only a game back for the best ATS record in basketball at 24-11-0 (68.6%). Phoenix actually shares the same win/loss record as their ATS record.

Rounding out the top five best ATS teams in the NBA so far are the Bulls (20-14-0, 58.8%), Grizzlies (19-14-0, 57.6%), and the Knicks (21-16-0, 56.8%).

As for the worst ATS teams, the Rockets have been abysmal for bettors this season; covering only 32.4% of their games with an 11-23-0 record. Following them are the Pacers (14-21-0, 40%), Timberwolves (14-21-0, 40%), and three teams with a 15-21-0 record: Pelicans, Cavaliers, and Kings (41.7%).

Over/Under Trends in 2020-2021

Despite their lack of success in covering the spread, both New Orleans and Sacramento have been favorite to bettors looking to take the over in their games this year. The Pelicans' over record comes in at 26-10-0, hitting above the total 72.2% of their games. The Kings' over record falls just under 70% at 25-11, followed by Brooklyn (25-12-0, 67.6%), Denver (23-13-0, 63.9%), and the LA Clippers (22-15-1, 59.5%).

As for teams dominating unders this year, the two biggest media markets have yielded the least amount of "overs."

The Knicks and Lakers both lead the way with a 23-14-0 under record, hitting 62.2% below the total so far this season. The Rockets also come in just over 60% going 20-13-1, followed by the Warriors (22-15-0, 59.5%) and Spurs (19-14-0, 57.6%).

Where is the money going for NBA Futures Bets?

DraftKings Sportsbook provided their latest update on where they've taken the most bets and money for this year's NBA Finals.

While it's not surprising to see the Lakers and Nets be the top two teams amongst teams bet to win the NBA Championship, it's a bit staggering to see that the two of them have combined for 61% of the bets, as well as make up 62% of the money. 

As the second half progresses, look for more wagers to come in on the Suns at +3300. Phoenix remains the No. 2 seed in the West behind the Jazz, but even with daunting matchups ahead, the high odds could still lock in a unique opportunity to hedge in the postseason.

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NBA Betting Play for Thursday, March 11

Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers (+4.5) | TOTAL: 226.5

Tip-Off: 10 p.m. ET

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After opening as 2.5-point favorites on the road, sharp money immediately moved this up an additional 2.5 points to -5 before coming back down to -4.5. The Suns have been the league's second-best team ATS all season, with Portland right near the middle of the pack. The Blazers did go on a three-game winning stretch where they covered to begin the month of March, but that was after four consecutive losses. In those seven games, they 3-4-0 ATS.

I really do like Phoenix to cover, but I also feel like this is a bit of a trap scenario. Portland has not been a good first half team this year going 15-18-2 ATS, but always seem to find a way to come back late. At home, the Blazers are 6-3 overall when trailing in the first quarter, and 5-5 when down at halftime.

As for the Suns, they've been a fantastic first half team all season and only have to cover two points rather than worry about 4.5 later on before "Dame Time" hits.

Phoenix is the third best "First Half" ATS team in the NBA at 22-13 and are also the number one team in the league in the 1st Quarter. Look for them to hold down the two-point lead or more at halftime, and not have to sweat a Blazers comeback.

The Play: Suns 1H (-2)

DAILY NBA RUNDOWN RECORD: 0-0

OVERALL RECORD: 95-95-0

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