NFL Week 4 Betting Preview: Early Line Movement & Odds Tracking
After three weeks of NFL action, sports bettors have witnessed underdogs heavily rule the wagering outcome. Since the start of the season, underdogs are 29-19 ATS (57.4%), showing that the early numbers by oddsmakers in the NFL have still yet to settle in firmly. The action will return in Week 4 with a primetime showdown between the Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football. The Bengals are currently a 7.5-point home favorite with a total sitting on the game at 45.5 at SI Sportsbook.
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Let’s take an early look-ahead at several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves on the weekend slate.
Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports
NFL Week 4 Games ‘On The Move’
Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons
- Moneyline: Washington (-375) | Atlanta (+290)
- Spread: WSH -1.5 (-110) | ATL +1.5 (-110)
- Total: 47.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 47.5 (-110)
- Game Info: October 3, 2021 1:00 pm ET | FOX
Washington has been outscored 92-67 through three games and consequently burned bettors, posting an 0-3 ATS mark at SI Sportsbook. In Week 4, the Washington Football Team will head on the road to take on Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons. Bettors are investing that Washington’s (-1.5) talented defense, which is surrendering 30.7 points per game, will turn it around against an Atlanta club that beat the Giants 17-14 last week. The line has surprisingly moved strongly in favor of Washington despite coming off a 43-21 road loss at Buffalo - as the line has moved four points off the opening number (+2.5), now showing Atlanta as home underdogs.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 54% of money on Atlanta
- Line Move: Atlanta -2.5 to Washington -1.5
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- WSH: 0-3 ATS (Home: 0-2 ATS, Away: 0-1 ATS)
- ATL: 1-2 ATS (Home: 0-1 ATS, Away: 1-1 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- WSH: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
- ATL: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
- Moneyline: Baltimore (+100) | Denver (-120)
- Spread: BAL +1 (-110) | DEN -1 (-110)
- Total: 44.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 44.5 (-110)
- Game Info: October 3, 2021 4:25 pm ET | CBS
We are witnessing reverse steam on Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos at SI Sportsbook as Denver has moved to small home favorites despite the public strongly investing in Baltimore. The Broncos have rewarded bettors with three consecutive SU and ATS wins over the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. Denver’s stout defense will face their stiffest test of the season when they take on Lamar Jackson instead of the two struggling rookie quarterbacks faced the past two weeks. The Ravens, who needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired to get by the Lions in Week 3, have won seven of their last 10 road games dating back to last season. The line move of the Ravens as an early 3.5-point road favorite has moved sizably, now displaying Denver as 1-point home favorites.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 63% of money on Baltimore
- Line Move: Ravens -3.5 to Denver -1
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- BAL: 1-2 ATS (Home: 1-0 ATS, Away: 0-2 ATS)
- DEN: 3-0 ATS (Home: 2-0 ATS, Away: 1-0 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- BAL: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
- DEN: 9-7 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
- Moneyline: Tennessee (-400) | New York (+310)
- Spread: TEN -8 (-110) | NYJ +8 (-110)
- Total: 45.5– Over (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
- Game Info: October 3, 2021 1:00 pm ET | FOX
Bettors are strongly backing Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans in Week 4 heading into MetLife Stadium to take on the inept Jets. After consecutive victories over Seattle and Indianapolis, the Titans are off to a 2-1 SU and ATS start. This game opened with Tennessee as 3.5-point favorites in early wagering but has since moved to the Titans as 8-point favorites at SI Sportsbook. Both respected and public money believes that the New York Jets will struggle for the fourth straight week. Following a solid second half in Week 1 against Carolina, Zach Wilson and the Jets have failed to score a touchdown in losses to New England and Denver. Dating back to last season, the Jets have lost eight of their last nine home games.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 78% of money on Tennessee
- Line Move: Titans -3.5 to -8
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- TEN: 2-1 ATS (Home: 1-1 ATS, Away: 1-0 ATS)
- NYJ: 0-3 ATS (Home: 0-1 ATS, Away: 0-2 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- TEN: 7-9 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)
- NYJ: 6-10 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 2-6 ATS)
© Jeremy Reper/USA TODAY Sports
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay (-340) | New England (+240)
- Spread: TB -6.5 (-110) | NE +6.5 (-110)
- Total: 49– Over: (-110) | Under: 49 (-110)
- Game Info: October 3, 2021 8:20 pm ET | NBC
NFL fans have been eagerly awaiting Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski’s return to New England since they signed with Tampa Bay last season. Bettors are strongly investing that Brady, who only needs 68 yards to break Drew Brees’ NFL career passing yardage record of 80,358 yards, will have no issues defeating his former club. This game opened in early wagering with Tampa Bay as 3.5-point favorites but has since moved to the Patriots as 6.5-point home underdogs at SI Sportsbook. Thus far, rookie quarterbacks are 1-10 ATS, with Mac Jones (1-2 ATS) being the only signal-caller to earn bettors a successful wager (Wilson 0-3 ATS, Lawrence 0-3 ATS, Fields 0-1 ATS and Mills 0-1 ATS). Tampa Bay will easily be the biggest liability for sportsbooks around the country, likely being the final leg in nearly every parlay and teaser wager on Sunday’s slate.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 83% of money on Tampa Bay
- Line Move: Tampa Bay -3.5 to -6.5
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- TB: 1-2 ATS (Home: 1-1 ATS, Away: 0-1 ATS)
- NE: 1-2 ATS (Home: 0-2 ATS, Away: 1-0 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- TB: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
- NE: 7-9 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 2-6 ATS)
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
