College Football Week 6 Best Bets: Composite Ratings Pick the Winners

The Composite is looking to rebound after an expected dip in Week 5, but the model is holding strong.

Hello darkness my old friend, variance came for me again. We mentioned that it might at the end of the intro to Week 5 (our first positive week) and it most certainly did. Not in a big way, but the composite did finish 11 games under .500.

We’re middle of the road when compared to some other notable models (lines quoted against the composite may differ from the ones we use).

2021 Thru Wk 05, full-season models

ATS

51.9% SP+ @ESPN_BillC
49.2% Metrics Consensus @PDawg206
48.1% @CFB_Geek
47.7% Sonny Moore
47.7% Wayward Trends
46.6% SI Composite @RJ_Writes
46.2% @DRatings
45.5% Beta_Rank @beta_rank_fb
45.5% @ProfessorSides

(266 games + 2 pushes)

— Andrew Percival (@PDawg206) October 6, 2021

Our composite does not use home field advantage this year and that interestingly paid dividends in a small sample size of straight up games with Andrew Percival’s Metric Consensus.

2021 Thru Wk 05, Metrics Consensus vs SI Composite @RJ_Writes

Edge to RJ SU, the MC ATS & MAE.

The story of this was RJ's road warriors. With no home field adj, RJ had 10 road teams SU who the MC picked against.

I wanted 7 of them! But only got 4.https://t.co/We6OAVupkC pic.twitter.com/pJfeE7rsB6

— Andrew Percival (@PDawg206) October 6, 2021

And so we soldier on through the season hoping the odds return to our favor.

Last week: 25-36-0 (41%)
Season: 121-142-3 (46%)

Composite Best Bets

DOWNLOAD: PDF or VIEW AS WEBPAGE

The process behind the picks is briefly explained in my Week 1 column. Most of the time, the computer spits out something within one or two points of the real line (and at that point, sharp plays and whale plays are what’s moving the line anyway). But if the computer gives something more than three points, it’s worth a second look.

Favorites

-Georgia Tech (-3.5) over Duke
-Wisconsin (-10) over Illinois
-Oregon State (-3.5) over Washington State
-South Alabama (-3.5) over Texas State
-Notre Dame (PK) over Virginia Tech

Dogs

-Stanford (+13) over Arizona State
-Akron (+14.5) over Bowling Green
-SMU (-13.5) over Navy
-Boise State (+6) over BYU
-Buffalo (+5.5) over Kent State
-Wyoming (+6) over Air Force
-Texas A&M (+18) over Alabama

The Big Dogs

-Maryland (+21) over Ohio State
-Vanderbilt (+39) over Florida
-Middle Tennessee (+19.5) over Liberty
-North Texas (+19) over Missouri

More Betting:

• NFL Week 5 Betting Preview: Early Line Movement & Odds Tracking
• NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 5 Thursday Night Football
• 2021 MLB World Series & Pennants Futures

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