2021-22 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Betting Preview: No Repeat for Rudy Gobert

Three-time DPOY award winner Rudy Gobert is the odds-on favorite, but he’s not the pick to win.

Two of the likely Defensive Player of the Year winners take the court Tuesday for the start of the NBA season—Anthony Davis for the Lakers and Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks.

SI Betting will make the case for each of the favorites for the NBA’s season-long individual awards leading into the season opener.

You can find the latest NBA futures odds from SI Sportsbook here. Let’s get into the favorites for Defensive Player of the Year:

2021-22 NBA Awards Betting Previews: MVP | ROTY | DPOY

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Rudy Gobert (+280)

The recipe for Gobert winning DPOY for the second straight season and the third time in four years is clear—he’s already done it so many times. If the Jazz big man puts up similar numbers from 2020-21, he can tie Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutumbo for most DPOY awards ever. 

Gobert quarterbacks Utah’s suffocating defense in the paint. Pretty much any way you slice it—opponent points per game, opponent field goal percentage, blocks per game—Utah was about a top five defensive unit, and Gobert was at the center of that operation, quite literally. 

He was first in the NBA in defensive win shares, which is an estimate of the number of wins a player contributed to on defense, and led the league in total rebounds and total blocks.

Availability has been a big component of Gobert’s case the three years he’s won DPOY. He played 56 out of a possible 82 games in the 2017-2018 season. Over the past two seasons, however, he's only missed two regular season games. If Gobert can stay healthy, history suggests he’ll be manning the paint for Utah in another DPOY-level campaign.

Ben Simmons (+400)

Making the case for Simmons might be a little clearer if we knew for sure where—or if—he’s going to play this season. If he remains in Philadelphia playing alongside All-NBA caliber defenders like Joel Embiid and Matisse Thybulle, it’s easy to see Simmons, who was runner-up for the award last year, taking it home this time around. 

The versatility he has on defense to guard opposing wings and not back down to forwards is what makes him so valuable as an on-ball defender. With a 6-foot-11 frame, Simmons clogs up passing lanes. He led the NBA in steals with over two per game in the 2019-20 season. 

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If Simmons were to leave the 76ers in a trade and help his new team take a leap defensively, he could also have a claim to the award. That scenario might actually be more impressive than looking like another good defender on a Philadelphia roster stacked with them. Credit would be easier to dole out if Simmons lands on a new team. 

There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Simmons’ future, which makes it difficult to advise placing a futures bet on him. Still, he’s shown in his short time in the NBA what an elite defender he is and he’s more than capable of earning Defensive Player of the Year honors in Philadelphia—or elsewhere.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+650)

Antetokounmpo prevented Gobert from winning four straight DPOY awards when he won it for the 2019-2020 season. He led the league in defensive win shares and defensive box plus/minus that year, while averaging a steal and a block per game. Antetokounmpo’s advanced defensive metrics took a step back this past season, but if you recall his block on Deandre Ayton in the Finals, it’s clear he’s still capable of being the best defender in the NBA.

The reigning Finals MVP will actually have more on his plate defensively this year following the departure of specialist P.J. Tucker, who started alongside him during the playoffs. That increased responsibility could allow him to flounder or flourish, though Milwaukee is not lacking for stout defenders. 

Antetokounmpo will have to take his defensive presence to a new level to recapture the DPOY title. And while it appears another offensive upgrade is imminent, he’s shown he’s more than capable of flirting with 30 points per game and locking down the opposition's best players.

Anthony Davis (+700)

"The Brow" is going to play center this season. Davis, who stands at 6-foot-10, has turned his nose up at playing the five for much of his career. The news that he’ll be playing center is good for the Lakers on both sides of the ball, but also for his chances to win DPOY.

He recently said he was anchoring the Lakers' defense last season, but did so while playing power forward, so he was often on the perimeter. 

“Now at the five guarding the bigs, I get to see everything on the floor and able to anchor the defense and talk to the guys,” Davis said, according to Lakers Nation. That’s similar to the role Gobert plays in Utah. 

Last season, Davis averaged a career-low 1.6 blocks per game and his steals numbers dipped as well. Playing near the basket, he'll have a good chance of returning those numbers to his First-Team All Defense days. The core of the Lakers' championship team that relied on its defense is gone. The responsibility lies on Davis now, the youngest of the Lakers’ Big 3.

THE PICK: Davis. 

Frank Vogel’s teams have been defined by stellar defense and Davis is by far the best defender on the Lakers. An injury hampered his all-around defense last season, but now that he’s healthy, he’s ready to claim the award he’s flirted with for years.

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