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NBA ‘SO/UP’ Picks and Bets for Thursday’s Games
The SO/UP debut was mildly successful. I hit both my player props, went one out of two on my Against The Spread (ATS) picks and missed on both over/unders.
Not a bad debut, but we can do better and we will tonight with a new slate of games!
Check out the latest odds at SI Sportsbook.
Atlanta Hawks (3-1) at Washington Wizards (3-1)
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Hawks -1.5 (-118) | Wizards +1.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Hawks (-125) | Wizards (+105)
Total: Under 222.5 (-110) | Over 222.5 (-110)
Injuries: Wizards C Daniel Gafford—Out; Wizards F Rui Hachimura—Out
Both teams are on the second leg of a back-to-back entering Thursday night. The Hawks have the third-best point differential in the league (+10.2) so far this season. Atlanta is a league-average offense (108 PPG), but it maintains the third-best scoring defense (97.8 PPG). The Hawks, led by Trae Young, are 2-2 ATS and only one of their games has hit the over so far.
Washington is in the middle of the pack on offense (109.8 PPG) and scoring defense (107 PPG) and just beat the Celtics on the road. The Wizards are 3-1 ATS and just one of their games this season has hit the over.
Spread Pick: Wizards +1.5
Washington has played well enough this season for me to like them getting points at home—and that’s without a big Bradley Beal game yet. The new-look Wizards, with Spencer Dinwiddie, Montrezl Harrell and Kyle Kuzma, are playing winning basketball and I think they keep that up against Atlanta. You even get a point for insurance.
Over/Under Pick: Under 222.5
The total is a bit high for what these two teams have shown offensively and defensively. Washington’s highest-scoring outing required overtime against Indiana and the Hawks appear to have an improved defense.
Prop: John Collins Over 14.5 Points
Collins has gone over this number in three of four games this season and he’s taken 11 and 14 shots, respectively, in his last two games. If he takes that many shots against Washington he’ll easily hit this prop.
Guest picker and SI Betting Editor David Scipione’s Take: Let's not downplay it, Kyle: SO/UP was successful! Now, we bombed on a lot of the traditional stuff like over/unders and spreads, but that's why we SO/UP. Props, man. Hopefully Thursday will be a better all-around performance from us.
If you read my NBA regular season win totals primer, you know I'm not a big fan of the Wizards hitting their over. On the flip side, I love the Hawks cruising past their total of 46.5 wins. Give me Hawks -1.5 and the over 222.5 all day—also, Trae Young four-plus made threes. If Atlanta is winning on the road, Young will be a big part of that.
Memphis Grizzlies (2-1) at Golden State Warriors (4-0)
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Grizzlies +5.5 (-110) | Warriors -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Grizzlies (+188) | Warriors (-225)
Total: Under 232.5 (-110) | Over 232.5 (-110)
Injuries: Memphis G Dillon Brooks—Out
Memphis enters the game on a two-game skid while the Warriors maintain their status as one of three undefeated teams in the league. Led by Ja Morant’s league-best 30.5 PPG, the Grizzlies are the No. 3 scoring team in the NBA (116.5 PPG). Containing opponents has been difficult for this team, though—they allow the third-highest scoring average (118 PPG). Memphis is 3-1 ATS and its high-scoring offense and porous defense allowed their games to hit the over three out of four times.
Golden State made a statement when it beat both L.A. teams in tight games to start the season. The Warriors are basketball’s fifth-best offense (115.3 PPG) and have been average defensively (108 PPG). Despite maintaining the league’s best record, the team is 2-2 ATS and their games have only hit the over once.
Spread Pick: Warriors - 5.5
Memphis is on the second night of a back-to-back fresh off a 20-point loss to Portland. Golden State is playing like the best team in basketball. There’s no shame in the Grizzlies losing a close one that the Warriors cover with free throws down the stretch.
Over/Under Pick: Over 232.5
Morant and Stephen Curry are both top-three in the league in scoring this season. Both of these teams are top-five in scoring, too. An average defense and a bad defense are prone to give up big nights when matched up with potent offenses.
Prop: Ja Morant over 25.5 Points
Remember how Morant leads the league in scoring? He’s gone over this number in three games this season including 40 points against the Lakers, and Golden State doesn’t have lockdown perimeter defenders to make Morant’s life tough enough to keep him under this number.
Scipione’s Take: Ja Morant is very good at basketball. Steph Curry is better. Dubs -5.5 and over 232.5 is the play, and this is coming from a Cavs fan who is not fond of Golden State to say the least (but how about those Cavs?). I had Jordan Poole over 20.5 points in his previous game, and it did not go well. I have a feeling Jordan won't let me down twice, so I'm going to go ahead and hammer him at over 18.5 points.
Bet NBA and more at SI Sportsbook.
DFS Value Plays Across Thursday Night Games
PG/SG Jordan Poole, Warriors (FD: $5,700 | DK: $5,800)
SG/SF DeMar DeRozan, Bulls (FD: $7,400 | DK: $7,600)
SF/PF Kyle Kuzma, Wizards (FD: $6,200 | DK: $6,200)
PF/C John Collins, Hawks (FD: $6,400 | DK: $6,300)
C Jakob Poeltl, Spurs (FD: $7,000 | DK: $7,100)
More Betting:
Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.