UFC 267 Betting Preview: Jan Blachowicz vs. Glover Teixeira

Light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz defends his title against top challenger Glover Teixeira in the main event of UFC 267.

The 52-week season marches on. This Saturday, the UFC heads back to Fight Island in Abu Dhabi for UFC 267, headlined by two title fights.

Jeff Bottari/UFC Handout

Light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz (28-8) makes his second title defense in the main event against the division’s #1 ranked challenger Glover Teixeira (32-7).

The co-main brings an interim bantamweight title fight, as former champ #1 Petr Yan (15-2) takes on #3 Cory Sandhagen (14-3). Sandhagen replaces current champion Aljamain Sterling, who was forced to withdraw due to lingering neck issues.

The card is scheduled for 14 fights, featuring a slew of European fighters and just two from the United States. The event will also end the incredible run for veteran voice of the octagon, Bruce Buffer, who will miss his first numbered/PPV card since 1996, as Buffer did not make the trip after testing positive for COVID-19.

This is an early event in the states and will be aired in its entirety on ESPN+ and kick off with the prelims at 1030 A.M. ET, followed by the main event at 2 P.M. ET.

You know the drill. Let’s dive in.

DATE: Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021
BROADCAST: ESPN+
VENUE: Etihad Arena
LOCATION: Abu Dhabi, Dubai
MATCHES: 14

Check the odds at SI Sportsbook

THE MAIN CARD:

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE BOUT (205 LBS): (C) JAN BLACHOWICZ (28-8) VS #1 GLOVER TEIXEIRA (32-7)

What a story this will be if Teixeira can pull this off Saturday.

Teixeira has grinded his way back to a title shot after winning five straight, including four as the underdog. He’ll be the underdog yet again Saturday, as oddsmakers have him around +250. That’s a price I definitely believe is worth a shot on.

Teixeira is 42 years young, but the champion Jan Blachowicz (38) joins him as the division’s oldest ranked fighters, yet two of the most dangerous with fights often resulting in a finish. The challenger should possess the advantage in the clinch, and if he can gain offensive control on the mat his submission skillset is unrivaled by most.

Blachowicz will look to avoid Teixeira’s attempts at closing in, and will instead pepper him with distance shots and the power he’s known for on the feet. Blachowicz has been getting a lot of shine as of late for handing the much-smaller middleweight champ, Israel Adesanya, his first defeat. Not only did Blachowicz have size, but he’s also leaps and bounds better grappling than Adesanya and that was the difference.

We will see a different story here, as this will be one of the few times Blachowicz will face an opponent who can go toe to toe with him on the mat. The champ has struggled with tough grapplers in the past. Coupling this with Teixeira’s power, and this fight will be a scrap no matter where it goes.

Teixeira is durable as well. He’s battle tested and very hard to finish, having never lost via submission, and only three times via TKO across 39 fights. Teixeira has had tunnel vision the entire way to this moment, while the champ has been very involved with his newborn son born just last December.

Prediction: Glover Teixeira
Bet: Teixeira +270
Bet: Blachowicz/Teixeira: Fight doesn’t go to decision -225

BANTAMWEIGHT INTERIM TITLE BOUT (135 LBS): #1 PETR YAN (15-2) VS #3 CORY SANDHAGEN (14-3)

Cory Sandhagen rightfully deserves this opportunity over TJ Dillashaw, who beat Sandhagen last July via a very debatable split decision.

This was originally slated to run back the Yan/Sterling debacle, after Yan was disqualified in his defense against Sterling for a clear illegal knee to a downed opponent. Sterling became the new champ in a fight Yan was on his way to win.

While Yan had to prepare for Sterling’s wrestling ability, there will be little threat here with Sandhagen, who prefers to stand and trade from the distance with his long-range abilities to connect. The difference-maker, for me, is pace. While Sandhagen typically fights to his opponent’s pace, which was a factor in the loss to Dillashaw, Yan has the ability to step on the gas and overwhelm his opponents when they come forward.

Yan will have more volume, more power, and if he can keep his fight IQ on course, he’ll walk away with the belt he should have never lost.

Prediction: Petr Yan
Bet: Yan -220

Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT (155 LBS): #5 ISLAM MAKHACHEV (20-1) VS #6 DAN HOOKER (21-10)

Oddsmakers have Makhachev as the largest favorite on the card while facing a very dangerous opponent here.

Makhachev has trained for years with Khabib Nurmagomedov, and brings somewhat of a similar fighting style to the octagon. Makhachev has an amazing wrestling base, and when he gets the fight to the mat he’s known for some serious ground and pound that leads to sneaky submissions.

Hooker steps in on short notice, replacing Rafael Dos Anjos after he withdrew due to injury, and he’s riding a clear decision win over Nasrat Haqparast last month. Hooker is 8-3 since 2017, only losing to Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier, and Edson Barboza. 

His strength resides on the feet with his kickboxing, though he tends to take damage to give his own.

Makhachev’s superior defense on the feet (70%) will be a factor, and I expect him to pounce for takedowns early and often as he avoids Hooker’s combos. He has no interest in standing and trading—or he shouldn’t—and if he executes a gameplan like we’ve seen in the past, this should be a frustrating 15 minutes for Hooker.

I like the over here. Entertainment wise, the Hooker KO prop is +1100. This should be much lower. Worth a small play for kicks in my book.

Prediction: Islam Makhachev
Bet: Makhachev/Hooker OVER 2.5 rounds -150

Check the odds at SI Sportsbook

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT (265 LBS): #5 ALEXANDER VOLKOV (33-9) VS #8 MARCIN TYBURA (22-6)

Two top-ten heavyweights clash here, and it’s tough to back either with such inconsistency from both sides.

Volkov comes in off a decision loss to Cyril Gane, but previously won two straight against big power punchers Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris. Volkov is a kickboxer who throws volume on the feet and lands just under five significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just over half of that he lands.

Tybura is somehow miraculously riding a five-fight win streak, after going 1-4 in his previous five fights. Tybura is a well-rounded fighter with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and should have the grappling advantage, even though Volkov has great get-ups.

It’s worth noting that across Tybura’s last eight fights, he won the six when he landed at least one takedown, while losing the two where he failed to do so. Volkov has improved his takedown defense and has been successful in defending six attempts across his last three fights. Tybura will want to avoid standing as much as possible, and his suspect chin is tough to put money on. This coupled with the fact that Volkov has won via TKO in four of his last five victories, makes the prop at +150 very enticing.

Prediction: Alexander Volkov
Bet: Volkov (look via TKO +150)

Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

WELTERWEIGHT BOUT (170 LBS): #11 LI JINGLIANG (18-6) VS KHAMZAT CHIMAEV (9-0)

This is going to be a bonkers fight. These two are going to go hard and neither is backing down from the looks of it during the presser this fight week.

“The Leech” enters off a one-round knockout over Santiago Ponzinibbio and faces probably the UFC’s biggest up-and-coming prospect, the returning Khamzat Chimaev.

Chimaev fought three times in the span of three months to conclude 2020 before testing positive with COVID-19. he absorbed just one significant strike across thos fights, and completely dominated all three opponents with finishes.

He had some complications with COVID-19, so it will be interesting to see just how it impacts him against a very aggressive fighter in Jingliang.

As Jingliang looks to get off first, probably with a ton of emotion behind his advances, I expect Chimaev to get him down and score from the top. Jingliang is known for losing some composure and getting frantic at times in order to get to better positions, and this could lead to a submission advance for Chimaev.

I can visualize now when Jingliang got locked into the submission by Jake Matthews and he completely dug his fingers into both eyes causing them to bleed while he struggled to break the hold. This fight will probably get ugly as well.

Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev
Bet: Chimaev (look via ITD -175)
Bet: Jingliang/Chimaev: Fight won’t start round 3 -158

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT (205 LBS): #7 MAGOMED ANKALAEV (15-1) VS #8 VOLKAN OEZDEMIR (17-5)

It’s been over a year since we last saw Oezdemir in the octagon. His last outing resulted in a knockout loss to Jiri Prochazka, which halted a two-fight win streak. Although he's 2-4 over his last six fights, he’s fought a string of high-level opponents.

Magomed Ankalaev should be 16-0 but he has one loss from 2018, when he panicked and quickly tapped to Paul Craig while in a triangle choke with just one second left.

He's since rattled off six straight wins and really hasn’t seen any danger along the way. Oezdemir on his feet is one to be wary about, as he has heavy hands and a 71% KO finish rate on his resume to back it up. Ankalaev packs a punch as well, but I believe the difference maker in this fight will be his ability to take Oezdemir down to the mat.

Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev
Bet: Pass

PREDICTIONS ON PRELIMS:

VIRNA JANDIROBA defeats AMANDA RIBAS
ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV defeats RICARDO RAMOS
ALBERT DURAEV defeats ROMAN KOPYLOV
ELIZEU ZALESKI defeats BENOIT SAINT-DENIS
SHAMIL GAMZATOV defeats MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUK
LERONE MURPHY defeats MAKWAN AMIRKHANI
ANDRE PETROSKI defeats YAOZONG HU
TAGIR ULANBEKOV defeats ALLAN NASCIMENTO

BET SUMMARY:

Teixeira +270
Blachowicz/Teixeira: Fight doesn’t go to decision -225
Yan -220
Makhachev/Hooker OVER 2.5 rounds -150
Volkov (look via TKO +150)
Chimaev (look via ITD -175)
Jingliang/Chimaev: Fight won’t start round 3 -158
Jandiroba +145
Duraev (look via SUB +140)
Petroski (look via ITD -110)

PARLAY CONSIDERATION:

Ulanbekov/Duraev -169
Add: Murphy +111
Add: Petroski +201

2021 predictions: 236-150-8 (61%)
2021 wagers: 125-101-1 (55%)

Overall record on SI:
Predictions: 617-349-19 (64%)
Wagers: 335-188-9 (64%)

Good luck everyone and I hope to see some of you cashing after Saturday night! Follow me on Twitter @Y2CASEY.

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