Player Prop Bets: Week 9 Thursday Night Football — New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

The 2-5 Jets head to Indianapolis to face the 3-5 Colts. Which players should you bet on?

This week’s tilt features two losing teams on short rest trending in opposite directions.

The Jets are coming into Indianapolis on the back of a 34-31 upset over the heavily-favored Cincinnati Bengals. 

They were led by Mike White—and in case you haven’t heard the legend—the backup QB threw for over 400 yards and three passing touchdowns with an 82% completion rate in his first NFL start, leading Jets fans to ask… Zach Who? 

Jenna Watson/IndyStar/USA TODAY Sports

Meanwhile, Carson Wentz and the Colts are coming off a demoralizing loss. After beginning the game up 14-0, the Titans came all the way back to win 34-31 in overtime. 

And do you know what else came back? 

2020 Carson Wentz. 

Wentz threw two interceptions—at times when it mattered most—and it cost the Colts the game in dramatic fashion. Until that point, Wentz had only thrown one pick to thirteen touchdowns this season.

The Jets offense has scored the third-lowest points on the season, at an average of only 16.3 per game. They have scored only 11 points per game on the road. However, that could be slightly misleading, because in the past three games (one and a half with White at the helm) they have averaged 22.5 points. 

The Colts, on the other hand, have fared better offensively. Behind superstar running back Jonathan Taylor and a veteran QB, the Colts have put up 25 points per game on the season and nearly 31 points per game across the last three.

Check SI Sportsbook for the latest odds

Defensively, the Jets have allowed an average of 29.5 points per game- the third worst mark in the league while the Colts have allowed 22.9. Across the last three, however, The Colts have allowed an average of only 18.3 points per game while the Jets are trending in the opposite direction, allowing 37.3 per game across the last three.

For the Jets, the way to beat the Colts will have to be through the air. Their run defense is stout, but they cannot protect the goal line through the air. The Colts have allowed the second most passing touchdowns to opposing QBs and the most passing touchdowns to opposing WRs this year. For the Colts, the way to beat the Jets is on the ground. The Jets have been run all over this year, and luckily for the Colts, they have a dominant weapon in Jonathan Taylor.

It’s easy to see why the Colts are favored here at home, but don’t count out the Jets to cover. Indianapolis will lean on the ground game, while the Jets attack through the air. That says to me this could end closer than the spread is allowing.

Let's get to betting some player props!

Trevor Ruszkowski/USA TODAY Sports

Player Props

Jonathan Taylor over 106.5 total yards -141

Jonathan Taylor over 2.5 receptions -105

Jonathan Taylor anytime TD -188

Notice a theme? 

The Jets are bad against the run, and Jonathan Taylor is the number two fantasy running back on the season. 

Just how bad are the Jets? They have allowed a league-leading 11 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs and they’ve surrendered an average of 115 ground yards per game. They have also given up a league-leading 79 air yards per game with an average of 7.79 yards per target and an 81% catch rate. 

Jonathan Taylor is second in rushing yards only to Derrick Henry, and he has caught 21 of 25 targets this year for 265 yards. He sees 58% of the red zone opportunities for the Colts, and he is on track for another big game. 

The reception prop is the only one that returns you nearly even money, so if you’re feeling bold, why not try a parlay? Parlay any two, but if you parlay all three it pays three to one. A $100 bet returns $411.

Mike White over 1.5 passing touchdowns -105

The way to beat the Jets is on the ground, and the way to beat the Colts is through the air. 

Mike White impressed last week throwing for over 400 yards and three passing touchdowns. The Colts have allowed 19 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year—that’s an average of 2.4 per game. In fact, the only times the Titans' Ryan Tannehill has thrown for more than one touchdown this year were both against the Colts—and they surrendered three in each of those games.

Michael Pittman over 5.5 receptions +105

I like the plus-money here. Michael Pittman has met this mark in five of eight games played, and though the Jets' pass defense is tough, Indianapolis will once again be without T.Y. Hilton. 

Zach Pascal and Michael Pittman will both see an uptick in targets as they did last week—and last week Pittman saw 15 of them.

Anytime TD Props

Michael Carter anytime TD +165

The Colts are very good at stopping the run and have only surrendered two rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown to opposing running backs this year. 

So, why am I betting this? 

Because Michael Carter is on a roll. Carter went into beast-mode last Sunday versus the Bengals, with 15 rushing attempts for 77 yards and a touchdown. He also saw a massive 14 targets for nine catches and 95 yards. 

If I think Mike White can pass for more than two touchdowns, I have to think Carter could be on the receiving end even if he doesn’t run one in.

Zach Pascal anytime TD +188

T.Y. Hilton is out Thursday with a concussion and there’s no Parris Campbell, so that means both Pascal and Pittman will see an uptick in targets. 

Did you realize that Pascal has seen more red zone targets on the season than Michael Pittman? 

The Jets have only allowed 5 passing touchdowns this year to opposing wide receivers, but I like the plus-money here for Pascal—who is better value than Michael Pittman to find the end zone.

Jamison Crowder anytime TD +240

We have yet to hear if Corey Davis will play, but I’m guessing he won’t suit up Thursday. That leaves more opportunity for slot receiver Jamison Crowder. 

Crowder was targeted nine times Sunday, and he caught eight of them for 84 yards. In four games played, Crowder has been targeted seven times inside the 20-yard line and we know the Colts can’t protect the goal line.

Carson Wentz anytime TD +420

Here’s your lotto of the day! 

Wentz has been using his legs when he needs to and I’m guessing he could be a little gun shy to put the ball in the air after the two interceptions that cost them the game to the Titans. 

The Jets can be beat on the ground, so why not just take one in himself? 

Latest NFL odds at SI Sportsbook

More Betting & NFL:

• Fantasy Impact: Rodgers & COVID-19
• NFL Power Rankings
• Trade Deadline Grades
• CFB Betting Futures Breakdown